Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Wild are contenders to win the conference but it is looking less likely to happen. In our pre-season forecast they had a 14.8% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. On 11/6 they had a 13.5% chance before dropping to 2.7% on 1/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 2.6%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #7 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Wild's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 23-21-3 Wild 'should have' 25 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 48% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-6-0, 50%) is under their expected 52% win percentage. The Wild should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). Their peak rank was #8 in the league back on 11/13.

Their average goal differential is -0.13 which ranks #17 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #16 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #23 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is -1.25 (#29 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Wild next 3 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
CLOSE GAME
48% CLB
--
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
39% @LV
2102 miles
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
48% @COL
1136 miles
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
49% @DAL
1390 miles
FEB 2**
LIKELY WIN
71% CHI
1390 miles
FEB 5
CLOSE GAME
54% @BUF
1162 miles
FEB 7
CLOSE GAME
60% EDM
--
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
40% @NJ
1610 miles
FEB 10**
CLOSE GAME
50% @NYI
18 miles
FEB 12
LIKELY WIN
61% PHI
--

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 1-2 (40% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 9.3%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Avalanche by one point. With a -0.3 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Oilers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Oilers. There is only a -0.32 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Wild are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Wild are playing 4 games, traveling 7866 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Wild's next game. They are -121 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.