|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Wild next 5 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 11.6%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Predators by one point. With a -0.69 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Jets by 2 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Jets. There is only a 0.47 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Wild are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Wild are playing 7 games, traveling 2108 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Minnesota Wild are -213 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 12-5-2 the Wild are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 6 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 6-4-0 road record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-3-0, 73%) is better than their expected 54% win percentage. The Wild are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #8 winning 56.1%.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.63 which ranks #5 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #4. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +1.57 which ranks them #3 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Wild are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6% chance of winning it all. On 10/18 they had a 2% chance before increasing to 5.7% on 11/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 5.5%. They have a 10% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (65%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 57% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 27.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the West (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 11.9% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Wild's Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|25||Brodin, Jonas||D||6-1||194||07/12/1993||6||No College|
|3||Coyle, Charlie||C||6-3||218||03/02/1992||6||Boston U.|
|40||Dubnyk, Devan||G||6-6||210||05/04/1986||9||No College|
|24||Dumba, Matt||D||6-0||189||07/25/1994||5||No College|
|14||Eriksson Ek, Joel||C||6-1||206||01/29/1997||2||No College|
|21||Fehr, Eric||RW||6-4||212||09/07/1985||13||No College|
|17||Foligno, Marcus||LW||6-3||228||08/10/1991||7||No College|
|64||Granlund, Mikael||C||5-10||185||02/26/1992||6||No College|
|18||Greenway, Jordan||LW||6-6||226||02/16/1997||1||Boston U.|
|15||Hendricks, Matt||C||6-0||207||06/17/1981||10||St. Cloud State|
|9||Koivu, Mikko||C||6-3||215||03/12/1983||13||No College|
|22||Niederreiter, Nino||RW||6-2||210||09/08/1992||7||No College|
|11||Parise, Zach||LW||5-11||197||07/28/1984||13||North Dakota|
|39||Prosser, Nate||D||6-2||203||05/07/1986||9||Colorado College|
|46||Spurgeon, Jared||D||5-9||176||11/29/1989||8||No College|
|12||Staal, Eric||C||6-4||205||10/29/1984||14||No College|