LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Wild are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 79.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/16 they had a 90.9% chance before dropping to 26.9% on 2/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 38%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 3% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 0.77%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 3.8% (25/1 odds) and a 2% chance of winning it all (50/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #9 Toughest

Wild's Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 34-30-9 Wild 'should have' 38 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 15 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 15-15-7 home record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-3-3, 45%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Wild played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.4% of the time (#21 in the league). Their peak rank was #8 in the league back on 11/13.

Their average goal differential is -0.16 which ranks #20 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #12 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #28 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.71 (#25 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 4 games.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
CLOSE GAME
45% COL
--
MAR 22
LIKELY LOSS
29% @WAS
1489 miles
MAR 23**
LIKELY LOSS
38% @CAR
376 miles
MAR 25
CLOSE GAME
46% NSH
--
MAR 29
LIKELY LOSS
35% @LV
2102 miles
MAR 31
CLOSE GAME
45% @ARI
2075 miles
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
41% WPG
--
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
44% BOS
--
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
44% @DAL
1390 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.7%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Coyotes by one point. With a -0.35 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Avalanche by 3 points. With a -1 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Wild are just the 30th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Wild are playing 6 games, traveling 12425 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Wild's next game. They are -129 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.