|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Canadiens are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6.6% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 3.9% chance before increasing to 47.6% on 1/17. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 48.1%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 22.4%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Canadiens' Season Forecast Changes
Stream Montreal games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 26-17-5 the Canadiens are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.1 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 10 good wins vs 6 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 13-8-3 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4-0, 64%) is better than their expected 47% win percentage. In simulations where the Canadiens played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 40.9% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 11/28.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.04 which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #13. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #19 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 which ranks them #13 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 3 games is a mixed bag. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 1-2 (40% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 8.8%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Islanders by one point. Their projected wins (1.41) over the next 3 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Penguins by one point. With a -0.55 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Canadiens are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Canadiens are playing 3 games, traveling 986 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #26 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Montreal Canadiens are +140 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|47||Agostino, Kenny||LW||6-0||199||04/30/1992||No College|
|27||Alzner, Karl||D||6-3||219||09/24/1988||No College|
|40||Armia, Joel||RW||6-4||210||05/31/1993||No College|
|8||Benn, Jordie||D||6-2||199||07/26/1987||No College|
|43||Chaput, Michael||C||6-2||204||04/09/1992||No College|
|24||Danault, Phillip||C||6-1||198||02/24/1993||No College|
|20||Deslauriers, Nicolas||RW||6-1||221||02/22/1991||No College|
|13||Domi, Max||C||5-10||193||03/02/1995||No College|
|92||Drouin, Jonathan||LW||6-0||203||03/28/1995||No College|
|11||Gallagher, Brendan||RW||5-9||184||05/06/1992||No College|
|54||Hudon, Charles||RW||5-10||196||06/23/1994||No College|
|15||Kotkaniemi, Jesperi||C||6-2||184||07/06/2000||No College|
|17||Kulak, Brett||D||6-2||187||01/06/1994||No College|
|62||Lehkonen, Artturi||LW||6-0||177||07/04/1995||No College|
|53||Mete, Victor||D||5-9||183||06/07/1998||No College|
|37||Niemi, Antti||G||6-2||209||08/29/1983||No College|
|63||Peca, Matthew||C||5-9||182||04/27/1993||No College|
|26||Petry, Jeff||D||6-3||197||12/09/1987||No College|
|31||Price, Carey||G||6-3||215||08/16/1987||No College|
|28||Reilly, Mike||D||6-1||195||07/13/1993||No College|
|90||Tatar, Tomas||LW||5-10||182||12/01/1990||No College|
|6||Weber, Shea||D||6-4||229||08/14/1985||No College|