Montreal
Canadiens
Stadium Bell Centre
11-6-3 Overall | 2-2-3 ATLANTIC 5th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Canadiens6665 13.51%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Capitals
W6-4
Sat  11/3
vs
Lightning
L1-4
Mon  11/5
@
Islanders
W / SO4-3
Tue  11/6
@
Rangers
L3-5
Thu  11/8
vs
Sabres
L / OT5-6
Sat  11/10
vs
Golden Knights
W5-4
Tue  11/13
@
Oilers
L2-6
Thu  11/15
@
Flames
W3-2
Sat  11/17
@
Canucks
W3-2
Mon  11/19
vs
Capitals
TSN27:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Canadiens are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6.6% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 3.9% chance before increasing to 22.4% on 10/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 14.8%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #11 Toughest

Canadiens' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 11-6-3 the Canadiens are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-3-1 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4-1, 55%) is better than their expected 46% win percentage. In simulations where the Canadiens played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 42.6% of the time (#26 in the league). Their peak sim% was 42.8% back on 11/2.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.05 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #25 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.57 (#21 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Canadiens next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 19
LIKELY LOSS
37% WAS
--
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
33% @NJ
532 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
55% @BUF
514 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY LOSS
37% BOS
514 miles
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
59% CAR
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
53% NYR
--
DEC 2**
CLOSE GAME
46% SJ
--
DEC 4
LIKELY WIN
62% OTT
--
DEC 6
CLOSE GAME
44% @OTT
186 miles
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
39% @CHI
1203 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.6%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.4%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the Sabres by one point. With a +0.31 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Bruins in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bruins. Their projected wins (2.2) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Canadiens are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Canadiens are playing 7 games, traveling 2092 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Montreal Canadiens' next game is on November 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
47 Agostino, Kenny LW6-020204/30/1992No College
27 Alzner, Karl D6-321909/24/1988No College
8 Benn, Jordie D6-219907/26/1987No College
24 Danault, Phillip C6-119802/24/1993No College
20 Deslauriers, Nicolas LW6-122102/22/1991No College
13 Domi, Max C5-1019303/02/1995No College
92 Drouin, Jonathan LW6-020303/28/1995No College
11 Gallagher, Brendan RW5-918405/06/1992No College
54 Hudon, Charles LW5-1019606/23/1994No College
58 Juulsen, Noah D6-219304/02/1997No College
15 Kotkaniemi, Jesperi C6-218407/06/2000No College
62 Lehkonen, Artturi RW6-017707/04/1995No College
53 Mete, Victor D5-918306/07/1998No College
37 Niemi, Antti G6-220908/29/1983No College
61 Ouellet, Xavier D6-019607/29/1993No College
63 Peca, Matthew C5-918204/27/1993No College
26 Petry, Jeff D6-319712/09/1987No College
31 Price, Carey G6-321508/16/1987No College
28 Reilly, Mike D6-119507/13/1993No College
38 Scherbak, Nikita RW6-219212/30/1995No College
21 Schlemko, David D6-119105/07/1987No College
65 Shaw, Andrew RW5-1118207/20/1991No College
90 Tatar, Tomas LW5-1018212/01/1990No College