Montreal
Canadiens
Stadium Bell Centre
37-28-7 Overall | 11-8-5 ATLANTIC 4th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Canadiens212212 11.93%
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  3/1
@
Rangers
W4-2
Sat  3/2
vs
Penguins
L1-5
Tue  3/5
@
Kings
W3-1
Thu  3/7
@
Sharks
L2-5
Fri  3/8
@
Ducks
L2-8
Tue  3/12
vs
Red Wings
W3-1
Thu  3/14
@
Islanders
L1-2
Sat  3/16
vs
Blackhawks
L0-2
Tue  3/19
@
Flyers
TSN27:00pm
Thu  3/21
vs
Islanders
TSN27:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 37-28-7 the Canadiens are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 35.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 12 good wins but they also have 12 bad losses. They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-7-0, 36%. In simulations where the Canadiens played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 44% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 11/28.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.03 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #15. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #17 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.33 (#27 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 19
CLOSE GAME
41% @PHI
636 miles
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
48% NYI
--
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
60% BUF
--
MAR 24**
CLOSE GAME
46% @CAR
1163 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
48% FLA
--
MAR 28
LIKELY LOSS
40% @CLB
986 miles
MAR 30
LIKELY LOSS
29% @WPG
1824 miles
APR 2
LIKELY LOSS
26% TB
--
APR 4
LIKELY LOSS
32% @WAS
788 miles
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
43% TOR
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.1%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Blue Jackets by 3 points. Their projected wins (2.8) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Flyers by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Flyers. There is only a 0.32 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Canadiens are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Canadiens are playing 7 games, traveling 8582 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Montreal Canadiens' next game. They are -103 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Canadiens are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6.6% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 3.9% chance before increasing to 70.3% on 2/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 13.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 32.9%. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #3 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #9 Toughest

Canadiens' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
40 Armia, Joel RW6-421005/31/1993No College
8 Benn, Jordie D6-219907/26/1987No College
41 Byron, Paul LW5-916304/27/1989No College
24 Danault, Phillip C6-119802/24/1993No College
20 Deslauriers, Nicolas RW6-122102/22/1991No College
13 Domi, Max C5-1019303/02/1995No College
92 Drouin, Jonathan LW6-020303/28/1995No College
32 Folin, Christian D6-320402/09/1991No College
11 Gallagher, Brendan RW5-918405/06/1992No College
54 Hudon, Charles LW5-1019606/23/1994No College
15 Kotkaniemi, Jesperi C6-218407/06/2000No College
17 Kulak, Brett D6-218701/06/1994No College
62 Lehkonen, Artturi LW6-017707/04/1995No College
39 Lindgren, Charlie G6-118212/18/1993No College
53 Mete, Victor D5-918306/07/1998No College
37 Niemi, Antti G6-220908/29/1983No College
63 Peca, Matthew C5-918204/27/1993No College
26 Petry, Jeff D6-319712/09/1987No College
31 Price, Carey G6-321508/16/1987No College
28 Reilly, Mike D6-119507/13/1993No College
65 Shaw, Andrew RW5-1118207/20/1991No College
90 Tatar, Tomas LW5-1018212/01/1990No College
21 Thompson, Nate C6-121410/05/1984No College
43 Weal, Jordan C5-1017904/15/1992No College
6 Weber, Shea D6-422908/14/1985No College
22 Weise, Dale RW6-220608/05/1988No College