|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 37-28-7 the Canadiens are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 35.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 12 good wins but they also have 12 bad losses. They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 55%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-7-0, 36%. In simulations where the Canadiens played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 44% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 11/28.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.03 which ranks #17 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #15. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #17 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1.33 (#27 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.1%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Blue Jackets by 3 points. Their projected wins (2.8) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Flyers by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Flyers. There is only a 0.32 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Canadiens are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Canadiens are playing 7 games, traveling 8582 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Montreal Canadiens' next game. They are -103 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Canadiens are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 6.6% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/5 they had a 3.9% chance before increasing to 70.3% on 2/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 13.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 32.9%. They have virtually no chance at getting home ice advantage in the first round. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
Canadiens' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|40||Armia, Joel||RW||6-4||210||05/31/1993||No College|
|8||Benn, Jordie||D||6-2||199||07/26/1987||No College|
|41||Byron, Paul||LW||5-9||163||04/27/1989||No College|
|24||Danault, Phillip||C||6-1||198||02/24/1993||No College|
|20||Deslauriers, Nicolas||RW||6-1||221||02/22/1991||No College|
|13||Domi, Max||C||5-10||193||03/02/1995||No College|
|92||Drouin, Jonathan||LW||6-0||203||03/28/1995||No College|
|32||Folin, Christian||D||6-3||204||02/09/1991||No College|
|11||Gallagher, Brendan||RW||5-9||184||05/06/1992||No College|
|54||Hudon, Charles||LW||5-10||196||06/23/1994||No College|
|15||Kotkaniemi, Jesperi||C||6-2||184||07/06/2000||No College|
|17||Kulak, Brett||D||6-2||187||01/06/1994||No College|
|62||Lehkonen, Artturi||LW||6-0||177||07/04/1995||No College|
|39||Lindgren, Charlie||G||6-1||182||12/18/1993||No College|
|53||Mete, Victor||D||5-9||183||06/07/1998||No College|
|37||Niemi, Antti||G||6-2||209||08/29/1983||No College|
|63||Peca, Matthew||C||5-9||182||04/27/1993||No College|
|26||Petry, Jeff||D||6-3||197||12/09/1987||No College|
|31||Price, Carey||G||6-3||215||08/16/1987||No College|
|28||Reilly, Mike||D||6-1||195||07/13/1993||No College|
|65||Shaw, Andrew||RW||5-11||182||07/20/1991||No College|
|90||Tatar, Tomas||LW||5-10||182||12/01/1990||No College|
|21||Thompson, Nate||C||6-1||214||10/05/1984||No College|
|43||Weal, Jordan||C||5-10||179||04/15/1992||No College|
|6||Weber, Shea||D||6-4||229||08/14/1985||No College|
|22||Weise, Dale||RW||6-2||206||08/05/1988||No College|