SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 23-29-8 Devils 'should have' 28 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins vs 9 bad losses. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 8-19-3 road record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-6-1, 36%) is under their expected 43% win percentage. In simulations where the Devils played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 40% of the time (#28 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #24 winning 45.8%.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.5 which ranks #27 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #29. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #15 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is -0.75 which ranks them #22 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Devils next 6 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 21
CLOSE GAME
53% OTT
--
FEB 23
CLOSE GAME
50% @NYR
15 miles
FEB 25
CLOSE GAME
53% MON
--
FEB 27
LIKELY LOSS
38% CGY
--
MAR 1
CLOSE GAME
48% PHI
--
MAR 2**
LIKELY LOSS
29% @BOS
316 miles
MAR 5
LIKELY LOSS
39% CLB
--
MAR 8
LIKELY LOSS
25% @WAS
318 miles
MAR 9**
CLOSE GAME
47% @NYR
331 miles
MAR 12
LIKELY LOSS
32% @CGY
3249 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 6.3%. At #15 in the conference, they are behind the Red Wings by one point. With a +0.83 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Devils are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Devils are playing 7 games, traveling 662 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the New Jersey Devils' next game. They are -141 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Devils were projected for 84.9 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/18 their projected points was up to 91.5 before dropping to 74.5 on 2/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 75.3%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Devils' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.