|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
At 41-27-5 the Predators are behind their money line projected win total of 42.3 wins. They have 24 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 51% of their road games and were expected to win 52%. At home they have a 61% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 63%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5-0, 50%) is under their expected 57% win percentage. The Predators should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 3/14.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.29 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #7 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #13 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is +0.2 (#17 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.3%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Jets by one point. With a -2.25 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Golden Knights by 2 points. With a -0.93 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Predators are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Predators are playing 6 games, traveling 7232 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Nashville Predators' next game. They are -130 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Predators are contenders to win the conference but it is looking less likely to happen. In our pre-season forecast they had a 15.2% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. On 11/12 they had a 36.6% chance before dropping to 3.3% on 3/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3.8%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 3.4%. They have a 7.7% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 87% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (44%) at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 40% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 13.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the West (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Predators' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|33||Arvidsson, Viktor||RW||5-9||180||04/08/1993||No College|
|13||Bonino, Nick||C||6-1||196||04/20/1988||No College|
|11||Boyle, Brian||LW||6-6||245||12/18/1984||No College|
|46||Donovan, Matt||D||6-1||205||05/09/1990||No College|
|14||Ekholm, Mattias||D||6-4||215||05/24/1990||No College|
|4||Ellis, Ryan||D||5-10||180||01/03/1991||No College|
|9||Forsberg, Filip||LW||6-1||205||08/13/1994||No College|
|89||Gaudreau, Frederick||C||6-0||179||05/01/1993||No College|
|64||Granlund, Mikael||RW||5-10||185||02/26/1992||No College|
|23||Grimaldi, Rocco||RW||5-6||180||02/08/1993||No College|
|52||Irwin, Matt||D||6-1||207||11/29/1987||No College|
|19||Jarnkrok, Calle||RW||5-11||186||09/25/1991||No College|
|92||Johansen, Ryan||C||6-3||218||07/31/1992||No College|
|59||Josi, Roman||D||6-1||201||06/01/1990||No College|
|55||McLeod, Cody||LW||6-2||204||06/26/1984||No College|
|35||Rinne, Pekka||G||6-5||217||11/03/1982||No College|
|74||Saros, Juuse||G||5-11||180||04/19/1995||No College|
|17||Simmonds, Wayne||RW||6-2||185||08/26/1988||No College|
|10||Sissons, Colton||LW||6-1||200||11/05/1993||No College|
|15||Smith, Craig||RW||6-1||208||09/05/1989||No College|
|76||Subban, P.K.||D||6-0||210||05/13/1989||No College|
|8||Turris, Kyle||C||6-1||190||08/14/1989||No College|
|51||Watson, Austin||RW||6-4||204||01/13/1992||No College|
|7||Weber, Yannick||D||5-11||200||09/23/1988||No College|