NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 15
LIKELY WIN
62% NYR
--
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
51% DAL
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
51% @NYR
8 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
47% @NJ
18 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
63% CAR
18 miles
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
41% WAS
--
NOV 29
LIKELY LOSS
35% @BOS
307 miles
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
51% CLB
--
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
47% WPG
--
DEC 6
LIKELY LOSS
36% @PIT
509 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.5%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Canadiens by one point. With a +0.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Rangers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rangers. Their projected wins (2.76) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Islanders are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Islanders are playing 6 games, traveling 52 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #31 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The New York Islanders' next game is on November 15. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 9-6-2 the Islanders are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 8 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 5-5-0 road record is +13% better than expected. Their 4-1-2 home record is +10% better. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-2-2, 60%) is better than their expected 43% win percentage. The Islanders should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 6/25.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.59 which ranks #5 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #10. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #7 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.33 (#14 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Islanders are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/25 they had a 38.2% chance before increasing to 83.3% on 11/5. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 63.5%. They have a 5.9% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (12%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 18% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 5.2%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #9 Easiest

Islanders' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.