|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 18-24-5 the Senators have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 17.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 27% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 48% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 42%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-6-1, 30%) is under their expected 35% win percentage. In simulations where the Senators played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.2% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 7/20.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.68 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #30. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #24 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.33 (#11 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
Stream Ottawa games with SlingTV
NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 3 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 1-2 (40% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 11.4%.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Senators are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Senators are playing 4 games, traveling 4501 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Ottawa Senators are +185 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Senators were projected for 76.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/23 their projected points was up to 81.7 before dropping to 72.4 on 1/9. Their current projected point total is 75.2. The playoffs are not likely with their 0.6% chance and a projected #16 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Senators' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|41||Anderson, Craig||G||6-2||185||05/21/1981||No College|
|38||Balcers, Rudolfs||LW||5-11||175||04/08/1997||No College|
|89||Boedker, Mikkel||LW||6-0||210||12/16/1989||No College|
|74||Borowiecki, Mark||D||6-1||207||07/12/1989||No College|
|5||Ceci, Cody||D||6-2||209||12/21/1993||No College|
|72||Chabot, Thomas||D||6-2||196||01/30/1997||No College|
|2||DeMelo, Dylan||D||6-1||195||05/01/1993||No College|
|95||Duchene, Matt||C||5-11||195||01/16/1991||No College|
|18||Dzingel, Ryan||LW||6-0||190||03/09/1992||No College|
|67||Harpur, Ben||D||6-6||222||01/12/1995||No College|
|83||Jaros, Christian||D||6-3||201||04/02/1996||No College|
|58||Lajoie, Maxime||D||6-1||183||11/05/1997||No College|
|31||Nilsson, Anders||G||6-6||232||03/19/1990||No College|
|56||Paajarvi, Magnus||RW||6-3||206||04/12/1991||No College|
|44||Pageau, Jean-Gabriel||C||5-10||184||11/11/1992||No College|
|13||Paul, Nick||LW||6-4||230||03/20/1995||No College|
|9||Ryan, Bobby||RW||6-2||209||03/17/1987||No College|
|15||Smith, Zack||C||6-2||208||04/05/1988||No College|
|61||Stone, Mark||RW||6-4||219||05/13/1992||No College|
|71||Tierney, Chris||C||6-1||195||07/01/1994||No College|
|7||Tkachuk, Brady||LW||6-3||196||09/16/1999||No College|
|86||Wolanin, Christian||D||6-2||185||03/17/1995||No College|