|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Senators next 5 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 9%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1%. At #14 in the conference, they are fighting with the Panthers for positioning. With a -0.86 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Penguins in the conference. With a -1.46 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Senators are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Senators are playing 8 games, traveling 8894 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Ottawa Senators are -115 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 7-8-3 the Senators are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 6 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 25% of their road games and were expected to win 32%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 42%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-6-2, 27%. In simulations where the Senators played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44.5% of the time (#23 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 7/20.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.78 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #16 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.86 which ranks them #25 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Senators are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/20 they had a 3.4% chance before increasing to 16% on 10/23. Their current chances are at 5.7%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Senators' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|41||Anderson, Craig||G||6-2||185||05/21/1981||No College|
|79||Batherson, Drake||C||6-1||187||04/27/1998||No College|
|89||Boedker, Mikkel||LW||6-0||210||12/16/1989||No College|
|74||Borowiecki, Mark||D||6-1||207||07/12/1989||No College|
|5||Ceci, Cody||D||6-2||209||12/21/1993||No College|
|72||Chabot, Thomas||D||6-2||196||01/30/1997||No College|
|2||DeMelo, Dylan||D||6-1||195||05/01/1993||No College|
|95||Duchene, Matt||C||5-11||195||01/16/1991||No College|
|18||Dzingel, Ryan||LW||6-0||190||03/09/1992||No College|
|83||Jaros, Christian||D||6-3||201||04/02/1996||No College|
|58||Lajoie, Maxime||D||6-1||183||11/05/1997||No College|
|17||McCormick, Max||LW||5-11||188||05/01/1992||No College|
|33||McKenna, Mike||G||6-2||183||04/11/1983||No College|
|56||Paajarvi, Magnus||LW||6-3||206||04/12/1991||No College|
|10||Pyatt, Tom||C||5-11||185||02/14/1987||No College|
|9||Ryan, Bobby||RW||6-2||209||03/17/1987||No College|
|15||Smith, Zack||C||6-2||208||04/05/1988||No College|
|61||Stone, Mark||RW||6-4||219||05/13/1992||No College|
|71||Tierney, Chris||C||6-1||195||07/01/1994||No College|
|7||Tkachuk, Brady||LW||6-3||196||09/16/1999||No College|
|36||White, Colin||C||6-0||183||01/30/1997||No College|
|6||Wideman, Chris||D||5-10||183||01/07/1990||No College|