Ottawa
Senators
Stadium Canadian Tire Centre
19-24-5 Overall | 6-8-2 ATLANTIC 7th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Senators152181 20.86%
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  1/2
vs
Canucks
L / OT3-4
Sat  1/5
vs
Wild
L3-4
Sun  1/6
vs
Hurricanes
L4-5
Wed  1/9
@
Ducks
W / OT2-1
Thu  1/10
@
Kings
W4-1
Sat  1/12
@
Sharks
L1-4
Wed  1/16
vs
Avalanche
W5-2
Fri  1/18
@
Hurricanes
W4-1
Sat  1/19
@
Blues
7:00pm
Tue  1/22
vs
Coyotes
RDS7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 18-24-5 the Senators have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 17.9 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 27% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 48% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 42%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-6-1, 30%) is under their expected 35% win percentage. In simulations where the Senators played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.2% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 7/20.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.68 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #30. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #24 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.33 (#11 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 3 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
CLOSE GAME
42% @CAR
1083 miles
JAN 19**
CLOSE GAME
45% @STL
1064 miles
JAN 22
CLOSE GAME
57% ARI
--
FEB 1
LIKELY LOSS
28% @PIT
634 miles
FEB 2**
LIKELY WIN
62% DET
634 miles
FEB 6
LIKELY LOSS
31% @TOR
330 miles
FEB 7**
LIKELY WIN
66% ANA
330 miles
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
43% WPG
--
FEB 12
CLOSE GAME
57% CAR
--
FEB 14
CLOSE GAME
52% @DET
661 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 1-2 (40% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 11.4%.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Senators are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Senators are playing 4 games, traveling 4501 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Ottawa Senators are +185 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Senators were projected for 76.2 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/23 their projected points was up to 81.7 before dropping to 72.4 on 1/9. Their current projected point total is 75.2. The playoffs are not likely with their 0.6% chance and a projected #16 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #1 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest

Senators' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

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Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
41 Anderson, Craig G6-218505/21/1981No College
38 Balcers, Rudolfs LW5-1117504/08/1997No College
89 Boedker, Mikkel LW6-021012/16/1989No College
74 Borowiecki, Mark D6-120707/12/1989No College
5 Ceci, Cody D6-220912/21/1993No College
72 Chabot, Thomas D6-219601/30/1997No College
2 DeMelo, Dylan D6-119505/01/1993No College
95 Duchene, Matt C5-1119501/16/1991No College
18 Dzingel, Ryan LW6-019003/09/1992No College
67 Harpur, Ben D6-622201/12/1995No College
83 Jaros, Christian D6-320104/02/1996No College
58 Lajoie, Maxime D6-118311/05/1997No College
31 Nilsson, Anders G6-623203/19/1990No College
56 Paajarvi, Magnus RW6-320604/12/1991No College
44 Pageau, Jean-Gabriel C5-1018411/11/1992No College
13 Paul, Nick LW6-423003/20/1995No College
9 Ryan, Bobby RW6-220903/17/1987No College
15 Smith, Zack C6-220804/05/1988No College
61 Stone, Mark RW6-421905/13/1992No College
71 Tierney, Chris C6-119507/01/1994No College
7 Tkachuk, Brady LW6-319609/16/1999No College
86 Wolanin, Christian D6-218503/17/1995No College