Ottawa
Senators
Stadium Canadian Tire Centre
8-8-3 Overall | 5-4-1 ATLANTIC 6th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Senators6477 26.56%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Sabres
W4-2
Sat  11/3
@
Sabres
L2-9
Sun  11/4
vs
Lightning
L / OT3-4
Tue  11/6
vs
Devils
W7-3
Thu  11/8
vs
Golden Knights
L3-5
Sat  11/10
@
Lightning
W6-4
Sun  11/11
@
Panthers
L1-5
Thu  11/15
vs
Red Wings
W2-1
Sat  11/17
vs
Penguins
CBC7:00pm
Mon  11/19
vs
Panthers
RDSI7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Senators next 5 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 15
CLOSE GAME
59% DET
--
NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
41% PIT
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
52% FLA
--
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
26% @MIN
1347 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
29% @DAL
2268 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY LOSS
38% @NYR
530 miles
NOV 27**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @PHI
138 miles
NOV 29
CLOSE GAME
54% NYR
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
48% SJ
--
DEC 4
LIKELY LOSS
38% @MON
186 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 9%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1%. At #14 in the conference, they are fighting with the Panthers for positioning. With a -0.86 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Penguins in the conference. With a -1.46 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Senators are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Senators are playing 8 games, traveling 8894 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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According to Sportsline the Ottawa Senators are -115 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 7-8-3 the Senators are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.8 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 6 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 25% of their road games and were expected to win 32%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 42%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-6-2, 27%. In simulations where the Senators played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44.5% of the time (#23 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 7/20.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.78 which ranks #29 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #16 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.86 which ranks them #25 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every NHL game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Senators are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/20 they had a 3.4% chance before increasing to 16% on 10/23. Their current chances are at 5.7%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #1 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #9 Easiest

Senators' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
41 Anderson, Craig G6-218505/21/1981No College
79 Batherson, Drake C6-118704/27/1998No College
89 Boedker, Mikkel LW6-021012/16/1989No College
74 Borowiecki, Mark D6-120707/12/1989No College
5 Ceci, Cody D6-220912/21/1993No College
72 Chabot, Thomas D6-219601/30/1997No College
2 DeMelo, Dylan D6-119505/01/1993No College
95 Duchene, Matt C5-1119501/16/1991No College
18 Dzingel, Ryan LW6-019003/09/1992No College
83 Jaros, Christian D6-320104/02/1996No College
58 Lajoie, Maxime D6-118311/05/1997No College
17 McCormick, Max LW5-1118805/01/1992No College
33 McKenna, Mike G6-218304/11/1983No College
56 Paajarvi, Magnus LW6-320604/12/1991No College
10 Pyatt, Tom C5-1118502/14/1987No College
9 Ryan, Bobby RW6-220903/17/1987No College
15 Smith, Zack C6-220804/05/1988No College
61 Stone, Mark RW6-421905/13/1992No College
71 Tierney, Chris C6-119507/01/1994No College
7 Tkachuk, Brady LW6-319609/16/1999No College
36 White, Colin C6-018301/30/1997No College
6 Wideman, Chris D5-1018301/07/1990No College