Philadelphia
Flyers
Stadium Wells Fargo Center
9-9-2 Overall | 1-3-0 METROPOLITAN 5th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Flyers6371 12.7%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
@
Kings
W5-2
Sat  11/3
@
Sharks
L / OT3-4
Mon  11/5
@
Coyotes
W5-2
Thu  11/8
vs
Coyotes
W / OT5-4
Sat  11/10
vs
Blackhawks
W4-0
Tue  11/13
vs
Panthers
L1-2
Thu  11/15
vs
Devils
L0-3
Sat  11/17
vs
Lightning
L / OT5-6
Wed  11/21
@
Sabres
NBCS7:30pm
Fri  11/23
vs
Rangers
NBC1:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Flyers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 44.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/6 they had a 66.4% chance before dropping to 23.7% on 10/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 34.2%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 44.2%. They have a 1.2% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #2 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #3 Easiest

Flyers' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 9-9-1 the Flyers are behind their money line projected win total of 9.4 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 5-3-1 road record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-1, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Flyers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.9% of the time (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 11/5.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.42 which ranks #24 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #22. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #6 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #30 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 (#11 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
39% TB
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
61% @BUF
453 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
53% NYR
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY LOSS
35% @TOR
543 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
64% OTT
--
DEC 1
LIKELY LOSS
39% @PIT
414 miles
DEC 6
CLOSE GAME
52% CLB
--
DEC 8
LIKELY WIN
62% @BUF
453 miles
DEC 9**
LIKELY LOSS
25% @WPG
1600 miles
DEC 12
CLOSE GAME
51% @CGY
3232 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.5%. At #12 in the conference, they are fighting with the Hurricanes for positioning. Their projected wins (2.47) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Red Wings by one point. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Flyers are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Flyers are playing 6 games, traveling 2406 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Philadelphia Flyers are +100 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
62 Aube-Kubel, Nicolas RW5-1119605/10/1996No College
14 Couturier, Sean C6-321112/07/1992No College
37 Elliott, Brian G6-220904/09/1985No College
26 Folin, Christian D6-320402/09/1991No College
28 Giroux, Claude LW5-1118501/12/1988No College
53 Gostisbehere, Shayne D5-1118004/20/1993No College
3 Gudas, Radko D6-020406/05/1990No College
8 Hagg, Robert D6-220402/08/1995No College
11 Konecny, Travis RW5-1017503/11/1997No College
21 Laughton, Scott LW6-119005/30/1994No College
15 Lehtera, Jori C6-221212/23/1987No College
23 Lindblom, Oskar LW6-119108/15/1996No College
34 Lyon, Alex G6-120112/09/1992No College
47 MacDonald, Andrew D6-120409/07/1986No College
19 Patrick, Nolan C6-219809/19/1998No College
33 Pickard, Calvin G6-120004/15/1992No College
9 Provorov, Ivan D6-120101/13/1997No College
6 Sanheim, Travis D6-318103/29/1996No College
17 Simmonds, Wayne RW6-218508/26/1988No College
93 Voracek, Jakub RW6-221408/15/1989No College
40 Weal, Jordan C5-1017904/15/1992No College
22 Weise, Dale LW6-220608/05/1988No College
25 van Riemsdyk, James LW6-321705/04/1989No College