NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Flyers next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
50% @CHI
1074 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
50% NYI
--
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
34% @WAS
194 miles
MAR 27
LIKELY LOSS
36% TOR
--
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
50% @CAR
553 miles
MAR 31**
CLOSE GAME
60% NYR
553 miles
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
53% @DAL
2089 miles
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
50% @STL
1302 miles
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
51% CAR
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 12.5%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.9%. With a -0.46 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Panthers by 2 points. With a -0.75 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Flyers are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Flyers are playing 7 games, traveling 4657 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #26 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Philadelphia Flyers' next game. They are +107 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 35-30-8 the Flyers are behind their money line projected win total of 35.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have won 47% of their road games and were expected to win 43%. At home they have a 49% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4-1, 55%) is better than their expected 47% win percentage. The Flyers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.2% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 2/12.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.3 which ranks #22 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #17. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #18 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #26 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.43 which ranks them #20 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Flyers were projected for 88.4 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/5 their projected points was up to 93.7 before dropping to 74.2 on 1/14. Their current projected point total is 87.6. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #9 Toughest

Flyers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.