Futures

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Flyers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 44.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/6 they had a 66.4% chance before dropping to 23.7% on 10/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 34.2%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 44.2%. They have a 1.2% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #2 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #3 Easiest

Flyers' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 9-9-1 the Flyers are behind their money line projected win total of 9.4 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 5-3-1 road record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-1, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Flyers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.9% of the time (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 11/5.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.42 which ranks #24 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #22. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #6 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #30 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 (#11 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
39% TB
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
61% @BUF
453 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
53% NYR
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY LOSS
35% @TOR
543 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
64% OTT
--
DEC 1
LIKELY LOSS
39% @PIT
414 miles
DEC 6
CLOSE GAME
52% CLB
--
DEC 8
LIKELY WIN
62% @BUF
453 miles
DEC 9**
LIKELY LOSS
25% @WPG
1600 miles
DEC 12
CLOSE GAME
51% @CGY
3232 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.5%. At #12 in the conference, they are fighting with the Hurricanes for positioning. Their projected wins (2.47) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Red Wings by one point. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Flyers are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Flyers are playing 6 games, traveling 2406 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Philadelphia Flyers are +100 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.