|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 4 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 3-1 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 15.9%. At #6 in the conference, they are behind the Maple Leafs by 3 points. With a -0.74 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Hurricanes by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Hurricanes. There is only a -0.19 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Penguins are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Penguins are playing 6 games, traveling 6510 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Pittsburgh Penguins' next game. They are +110 underdogs and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 39-24-10 Penguins 'should have' 41 wins. They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 52%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 61%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-2-2 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.8 wins. The Penguins are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). Their peak rank was #2 in the league back on 1/10.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.41 which ranks #8 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #9. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #17 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is +0.62.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 1/10 they had a 14.9% chance before dropping to 1.9% on 2/25. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5%. They have an 11.7% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (17%) at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 48% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 24.6%. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the East (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 9.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|46||Aston-Reese, Zach||LW||6-0||204||08/10/1994||No College|
|27||Bjugstad, Nick||C||6-6||215||07/17/1992||No College|
|36||Blandisi, Joseph||LW||6-0||182||07/18/1994||No College|
|53||Blueger, Teddy||LW||6-0||185||08/15/1994||No College|
|87||Crosby, Sidney||C||5-11||200||08/07/1987||No College|
|7||Cullen, Matt||C||6-1||202||11/02/1976||No College|
|1||DeSmith, Casey||G||6-0||181||08/13/1991||No College|
|8||Dumoulin, Brian||D||6-4||207||09/06/1991||No College|
|44||Gudbranson, Erik||D||6-5||217||01/07/1992||No College|
|59||Guentzel, Jake||RW||5-11||180||10/06/1994||No College|
|72||Hornqvist, Patric||RW||5-11||189||01/01/1987||No College|
|73||Johnson, Jack||D||6-1||227||01/13/1987||No College|
|81||Kessel, Phil||RW||6-0||202||10/02/1987||No College|
|58||Letang, Kris||D||6-0||201||04/24/1987||No College|
|71||Malkin, Evgeni||C||6-3||195||07/31/1986||No College|
|19||McCann, Jared||LW||6-1||185||05/31/1996||No College|
|30||Murray, Matt||G||6-4||178||05/25/1994||No College|
|28||Pettersson, Marcus||D||6-3||177||05/08/1996||No College|
|50||Riikola, Juuso||D||6-0||189||11/09/1993||No College|
|2||Ruhwedel, Chad||D||5-11||191||05/07/1990||No College|
|17||Rust, Bryan||RW||5-11||192||05/11/1992||No College|
|4||Schultz, Justin||D||6-2||193||07/06/1990||No College|
|12||Simon, Dominik||LW||5-11||190||08/08/1994||No College|
|5||Trotman, Zach||D||6-3||217||08/26/1990||No College|
|10||Wilson, Garrett||RW||6-2||199||03/16/1991||No College|