SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 7-8-3 Penguins 'should have' 10 wins. They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-5-1 home record is -29% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 9.4% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 24.6% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Penguins are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 10/29.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.06 which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #28. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #31 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1 (#27 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Penguins next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 19
LIKELY WIN
74% BUF
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
64% DAL
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
52% @BOS
775 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
57% CLB
775 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
39% @WPG
1702 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
58% @COL
1287 miles
DEC 1
LIKELY WIN
61% PHI
--
DEC 4
LIKELY WIN
70% COL
--
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
61% NYI
--
DEC 8
LIKELY WIN
64% @OTT
634 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 19.6%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 3.9%.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Penguins are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Penguins are playing 7 games, traveling 9204 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Pittsburgh Penguins are -200 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 10/30 they had a 13.4% chance before dropping to 4.7% on 11/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.7%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 5.5%. They have a 21.3% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 88.3% chance and a projected #16 finish in the conference. They have a shot (39%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 47% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 22.9%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the East (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 10.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #8 Toughest

Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.