Pittsburgh
Penguins
Stadium PPG Paints Arena
7-8-3 Overall | 1-4-1 METROPOLITAN 8th
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Penguins6061 25.45%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
@
Islanders
L / SO2-3
Sat  11/3
vs
Maple Leafs
L0-5
Mon  11/5
vs
Devils
L1-5
Wed  11/7
@
Capitals
L1-2
Sat  11/10
vs
Coyotes
W4-0
Tue  11/13
@
Devils
L2-4
Thu  11/15
vs
Lightning
L3-4
Sat  11/17
@
Senators
L4-6
Mon  11/19
vs
Sabres
RSN17:00pm
Wed  11/21
vs
Stars
7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 7-8-3 Penguins 'should have' 10 wins. They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-5-1 home record is -29% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 9.4% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 24.6% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. The Penguins are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 10/29.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.06 which ranks #14 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #28. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #31 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -1 (#27 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Penguins next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 19
LIKELY WIN
74% BUF
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
64% DAL
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
52% @BOS
775 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
57% CLB
775 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
39% @WPG
1702 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
58% @COL
1287 miles
DEC 1
LIKELY WIN
61% PHI
--
DEC 4
LIKELY WIN
70% COL
--
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
61% NYI
--
DEC 8
LIKELY WIN
64% @OTT
634 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 19.6%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 3.9%.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Penguins are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Penguins are playing 7 games, traveling 9204 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Pittsburgh Penguins are -200 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Penguins are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.9% chance of winning it all. On 10/30 they had a 13.4% chance before dropping to 4.7% on 11/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.7%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 5.5%. They have a 21.3% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 88.3% chance and a projected #16 finish in the conference. They have a shot (39%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 47% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 22.9%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the East (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 10.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #13 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #8 Toughest

Penguins' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
46 Aston-Reese, Zach C6-020408/10/19941Northeastern
19 Brassard, Derick C6-120509/22/198711No College
87 Crosby, Sidney C5-1120008/07/198713No College
1 DeSmith, Casey G6-018108/13/19911New Hampshire
8 Dumoulin, Brian D6-420709/06/19915Boston College
38 Grant, Derek C6-321504/20/19905Michigan State
59 Guentzel, Jake C5-1016710/06/19942Nebraska-Omaha
62 Hagelin, Carl LW5-1118608/23/19887Michigan
72 Hornqvist, Patric RW5-1118901/01/198710No College
73 Johnson, Jack D6-123001/13/198712Michigan
81 Kessel, Phil RW6-020210/02/198712Minnesota
58 Letang, Kris D6-020104/24/198712No College
3 Maatta, Olli D6-220608/22/19945No College
71 Malkin, Evgeni C6-319507/31/198612No College
30 Murray, Matt G6-417805/25/19943No College
6 Oleksiak, Jamie D6-725012/21/19926Northeastern
14 Pearson, Tanner LW6-120808/10/19925No College
50 Riikola, Juuso D6-019011/09/19930No College
2 Ruhwedel, Chad D5-1119105/07/19906Massachusetts Lowell
17 Rust, Bryan RW5-1119205/11/19924Notre Dame
15 Sheahan, Riley C6-322212/07/19917Notre Dame
12 Simon, Dominik C5-1117608/08/19943No College
41 Sprong, Daniel RW6-018003/17/19972No College