Futures

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The Sharks next 5 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
59% STL
--
NOV 20
LIKELY WIN
68% EDM
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
74% VAN
--
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
41% @LV
615 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
64% @BUF
3674 miles
NOV 28**
CLOSE GAME
48% @TOR
95 miles
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
52% @OTT
3889 miles
DEC 2**
CLOSE GAME
54% @MON
186 miles
DEC 5
LIKELY WIN
70% CAR
--
DEC 7
CLOSE GAME
49% @DAL
2334 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 7.5%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Jets by one point. With a +0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Stars by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Stars. There is only a 0.15 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Sharks are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Sharks are playing 7 games, traveling 19721 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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Sportsline has a free pick on the San Jose Sharks' next game. They are -200 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

At 10-7-3 the Sharks are behind their money line projected win total of 11.6 wins. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-4-2 road record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-2, 45%) is under their expected 58% win percentage. The Sharks are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). Their peak sim% was 55.2% back on 6/11.

Their average goal differential is +0.1 which ranks #13 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #14 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #17 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.29 (#20 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Sharks are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.2% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 1.7% chance before increasing to 4.9% on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3%. They have a 50.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 89% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (57%). They have a 50% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 21.2% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the West (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 8.2% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #5 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 55% #2 Toughest

Sharks' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.