NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY WIN
66% LV
--
MAR 21
LIKELY WIN
72% @LA
492 miles
MAR 22**
LIKELY WIN
70% @ANA
28 miles
MAR 25
LIKELY WIN
74% DET
--
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
57% CHI
--
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
58% LV
--
MAR 31**
CLOSE GAME
54% CGY
--
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
59% @VAN
1333 miles
APR 4
LIKELY WIN
60% @EDM
1917 miles
APR 6
LIKELY WIN
65% COL
--

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 14.7%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Flames by one point. Their projected wins (3.4) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Jets. There is only a -0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Sharks are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Sharks are playing 7 games, traveling 1650 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #26 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the San Jose Sharks' next game. They are -161 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 43-21-8 the Sharks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 41.2 wins. They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 52%. At home they have a 66% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 63%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4-0, 64%) is better than their expected 58% win percentage. The Sharks perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.8% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #10 in the league back on 10/20.

Their average goal differential is +0.54 which ranks #4 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #9 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.67 which ranks them #7 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Sharks are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.2% chance of winning it all. On 12/4 they had a 1.2% chance before increasing to 19.6% on 2/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 14.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 17.7%. They have a 43.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 83% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 53.32%. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the West (5/2) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the Finals 31.3% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 45% #2 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #9 Toughest

Sharks' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.