St. Louis
Blues
Stadium Enterprise Center
32-22-5 Overall | 10-7-3 CENTRAL 3rd
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Blues177164 18.97%
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  2/2
@
Blue Jackets
W4-2
Tue  2/5
@
Panthers
W3-2
Thu  2/7
@
Lightning
W / OT1-0
Sat  2/9
vs
Predators
W3-2
Sun  2/10
@
Predators
W / OT5-4
Tue  2/12
vs
Devils
W8-3
Thu  2/14
@
Coyotes
W4-0
Sat  2/16
@
Avalanche
W3-0
Sun  2/17
@
Wild
W4-0
Tue  2/19
vs
Maple Leafs
W / OT3-2
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Blues are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.1% chance of winning it all. On 12/18 they had less than a 1% chance before increasing to 2.1% on 2/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.2%. Before the start of their 11 game winning streak they were at 0%. They have an 8.7% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 87% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (40%) at getting home ice advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 48% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 18.8%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the West (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 7.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Blues' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 32-22-5 the Blues are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 29.1 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 17 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 17-9-3 road record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 11 in a row they have a 19% chance of extending that to 14 straight. The Blues are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 1/23 they won just 44.2%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #14 winning 50%.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.24 which ranks #10 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #21 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 8 games is +2.5 (#2 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 21
LIKELY WIN
64% @DAL
882 miles
FEB 23
CLOSE GAME
55% BOS
--
FEB 24**
CLOSE GAME
54% @MIN
743 miles
FEB 26
CLOSE GAME
47% NSH
--
MAR 1
CLOSE GAME
50% @CAR
1064 miles
MAR 2**
LIKELY WIN
61% DAL
1064 miles
MAR 6
LIKELY WIN
69% @ANA
1574 miles
MAR 7**
LIKELY WIN
64% @LA
28 miles
MAR 9
CLOSE GAME
44% @SJ
2771 miles
MAR 12
LIKELY WIN
67% ARI
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.2%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 3%. There is only a -0.18 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are in a battle with Golden Knights in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Golden Knights. There is only a 0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Blues are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blues are playing 8 games, traveling 8627 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the St. Louis Blues are -125 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
34 Allen, Jake G6-220308/07/1990No College
49 Barbashev, Ivan C6-018712/14/1995No College
50 Binnington, Jordan G6-117407/11/1993No College
41 Bortuzzo, Robert D6-421603/18/1989No College
19 Bouwmeester, Jay D6-420609/27/1983No College
21 Bozak, Tyler C6-119903/19/1986No College
25 Butler, Chris D6-119610/27/1986No College
29 Dunn, Vince D6-020310/29/1996No College
6 Edmundson, Joel D6-421506/28/1993No College
15 Fabbri, Robby LW5-1019001/22/1996No College
62 MacEachern, MacKenzie LW6-219003/09/1994No College
7 Maroon, Pat RW6-322504/23/1988No College
90 O'Reilly, Ryan C6-121602/07/1991No College
55 Parayko, Colton D6-623005/12/1993No College
27 Pietrangelo, Alex D6-321001/18/1990No College
12 Sanford, Zach LW6-420711/09/1994No College
10 Schenn, Brayden LW6-120008/22/1991No College
17 Schwartz, Jaden LW5-1019006/25/1992No College
20 Steen, Alexander RW6-021103/01/1984No College
70 Sundqvist, Oskar C6-320903/23/1994No College
91 Tarasenko, Vladimir RW6-022512/13/1991No College
18 Thomas, Robert RW6-018807/02/1999No College