NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 15
CLOSE GAME
53% @PIT
1409 miles
NOV 17
LIKELY WIN
64% @PHI
1490 miles
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
55% @NSH
1001 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
63% FLA
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
73% CHI
--
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
77% NJ
--
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
74% ANA
--
NOV 29
LIKELY WIN
83% BUF
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
52% @FLA
290 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY WIN
66% @NJ
1613 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 8.1%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Maple Leafs by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Maple Leafs. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Lightning are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Lightning are playing 7 games, traveling 6391 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning's next game is on November 15. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 12-5-1 the Lightning are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 10.9 wins. They have won 62% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 65%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4-0, 64%) is better than their expected 59% win percentage. We have simulated the Lightning playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 63.9% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.72 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #2. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #9 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.43 (#13 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Lightning are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 16.2% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 12.3% chance before increasing to 26.4% on 11/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 20.8%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 24.4%. They have a 64.3% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (94%). They have a 80% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 52.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the East (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 34.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Lightning's Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.