Tampa Bay
Lightning
Stadium Amalie Arena
12-5-1 Overall | 4-2-0 ATLANTIC 1st
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Lightning6450 23.81%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Predators
L1-4
Sat  11/3
@
Canadiens
W4-1
Sun  11/4
@
Senators
W / OT4-3
Tue  11/6
vs
Oilers
W5-2
Thu  11/8
vs
Islanders
W4-2
Sat  11/10
vs
Senators
L4-6
Tue  11/13
@
Sabres
L1-2
Thu  11/15
@
Penguins
7:00pm
Sat  11/17
@
Flyers
RSN1:00pm
Mon  11/19
@
Predators
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 15
CLOSE GAME
53% @PIT
1409 miles
NOV 17
LIKELY WIN
64% @PHI
1490 miles
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
55% @NSH
1001 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
63% FLA
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
73% CHI
--
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
77% NJ
--
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
74% ANA
--
NOV 29
LIKELY WIN
83% BUF
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
52% @FLA
290 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY WIN
66% @NJ
1613 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 8.1%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Maple Leafs by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Maple Leafs. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Lightning are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Lightning are playing 7 games, traveling 6391 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning's next game is on November 15. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 12-5-1 the Lightning are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 10.9 wins. They have won 62% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 65%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4-0, 64%) is better than their expected 59% win percentage. We have simulated the Lightning playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 63.9% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.72 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #2. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #3 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #9 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.43 (#13 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every NHL game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Lightning are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 16.2% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 12.3% chance before increasing to 26.4% on 11/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 20.8%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 24.4%. They have a 64.3% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (94%). They have a 80% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 52.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the East (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 34.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Lightning's Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
24 Callahan, Ryan RW5-1018703/21/1985No College
81 Cernak, Erik D6-320805/28/1997No College
71 Cirelli, Anthony C6-018007/15/1997No College
55 Coburn, Braydon D6-522302/27/1985No College
70 Domingue, Louis G6-321003/06/1992No College
73 Erne, Adam LW6-121404/20/1995No College
5 Girardi, Dan D6-121204/29/1984No College
37 Gourde, Yanni LW5-917212/15/1991No College
77 Hedman, Victor D6-622312/18/1990No College
9 Johnson, Tyler C5-818307/29/1990No College
7 Joseph, Mathieu RW6-119002/09/1997No College
17 Killorn, Alex LW6-119609/14/1989No College
29 Koekkoek, Slater D6-219302/18/1994No College
86 Kucherov, Nikita RW5-1117806/17/1993No College
62 Martel, Danick LW5-816212/12/1994No College
27 McDonagh, Ryan D6-121506/13/1989No College
10 Miller, J.T. LW6-121803/14/1993No College
13 Paquette, Cedric C6-119808/13/1993No College
21 Point, Brayden C5-1016603/13/1996No College
98 Sergachev, Mikhail D6-321506/25/1998No College
91 Stamkos, Steven C6-119402/07/1990No College
6 Stralman, Anton D5-1119008/01/1986No College
88 Vasilevskiy, Andrei G6-320707/25/1994No College