Tampa Bay
Lightning
Stadium Amalie Arena
36-10-2 Overall | 12-3-0 ATLANTIC 1st
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Lightning193137 29.01%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  1/3
@
Kings
W6-2
Sat  1/5
@
Sharks
L2-5
Tue  1/8
vs
Blue Jackets
W4-0
Thu  1/10
vs
Hurricanes
W3-1
Sat  1/12
@
Sabres
W5-3
Sun  1/13
@
Islanders
L1-5
Tue  1/15
@
Stars
W2-0
Thu  1/17
vs
Maple Leafs
L2-4
Sat  1/19
vs
Sharks
7:00pm
Wed  1/30
@
Penguins
RSN8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 36-10-2 the Lightning are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 29 wins. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 17-5-2 road record is +15% better than expected. Their 19-5-0 home record is +15% better. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-3-0, 73%) is better than their expected 62% win percentage. The Lightning perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 66.9% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 6/11.

Their average goal differential is +1.1 which ranks #1 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #4 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.14 (#18 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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Sportsline has a free pick on the Tampa Bay Lightning's next game. They are -139 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Lightning are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 16.2% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 12.3% chance before increasing to 37.1% on 1/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 28.9%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 95.6%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 93% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 64.83%. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the East (5/2) and a 16.7% chance of winning it all (5/1). In simulations they make the Finals 42.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #7 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #4 Easiest

Lightning's Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
24 Callahan, Ryan RW5-1018703/21/1985No College
81 Cernak, Erik D6-320805/28/1997No College
71 Cirelli, Anthony C6-018007/15/1997No College
55 Coburn, Braydon D6-522302/27/1985No College
70 Domingue, Louis G6-321003/06/1992No College
73 Erne, Adam LW6-121404/20/1995No College
5 Girardi, Dan D6-121204/29/1984No College
37 Gourde, Yanni RW5-917212/15/1991No College
77 Hedman, Victor D6-622312/18/1990No College
9 Johnson, Tyler LW5-818307/29/1990No College
7 Joseph, Mathieu LW6-119002/09/1997No College
17 Killorn, Alex LW6-119609/14/1989No College
86 Kucherov, Nikita RW5-1117806/17/1993No College
62 Martel, Danick LW5-816212/12/1994No College
27 McDonagh, Ryan D6-121506/13/1989No College
10 Miller, J.T. RW6-121803/14/1993No College
18 Palat, Ondrej LW6-018803/28/1991No College
13 Paquette, Cedric C6-119808/13/1993No College
21 Point, Brayden C5-1016603/13/1996No College
98 Sergachev, Mikhail D6-321506/25/1998No College
91 Stamkos, Steven C6-119402/07/1990No College
6 Stralman, Anton D5-1119008/01/1986No College
88 Vasilevskiy, Andrei G6-320707/25/1994No College