LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Lightning are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 16.2% chance of winning it all. On 10/17 they had a 12.3% chance before increasing to 38.1% on 3/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 38.5%. Before the start of their 5 game winning streak they were at 30.6%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 91% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 66.46%. Based on the odds, they have a 50% chance of winning the East (1/1) and a 30.8% chance of winning it all (9/4). In simulations they make the Finals 51.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 56% #2 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #2 Easiest

Lightning's Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 56-13-4 the Lightning are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 44 wins. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 25-7-2 road record is +18% better than expected. Their 31-6-2 home record is +14% better. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-2-0, 82%) is better than their expected 67% win percentage. The Lightning perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 69.9% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 6/11.

Their average goal differential is +1.25 which ranks #1 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats). This is the same ranking they have among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +1.5 which ranks them #2 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The Lightning next 5 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
54% @WAS
1319 miles
MAR 21**
LIKELY WIN
68% @CAR
376 miles
MAR 23
LIKELY WIN
66% @STL
1390 miles
MAR 25
LIKELY WIN
68% BOS
--
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
62% WAS
--
APR 1
LIKELY WIN
69% @OTT
2016 miles
APR 2**
LIKELY WIN
69% @MON
186 miles
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
51% @TOR
1769 miles
APR 6
CLOSE GAME
57% @BOS
1907 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 10.4%. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bruins. There is only a 0.46 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Lightning are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Lightning are playing 7 games, traveling 10106 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Tampa Bay Lightning's next game. They are -135 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.