Toronto
Maple Leafs
Stadium Scotiabank Arena
14-6-0 Overall | 2-2-0 ATLANTIC 2nd
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Maple Leafs7051 25.86%
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Stars
L1-2
Sat  11/3
@
Penguins
W5-0
Tue  11/6
vs
Golden Knights
W3-1
Fri  11/9
vs
Devils
W6-1
Sat  11/10
@
Bruins
L1-5
Tue  11/13
@
Kings
W5-1
Thu  11/15
@
Sharks
W5-3
Fri  11/16
@
Ducks
W / OT2-1
Mon  11/19
vs
Blue Jackets
7:00pm
Wed  11/21
@
Hurricanes
RSN7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 14-6-0 the Maple Leafs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 11 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins but they also have 5 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 9-1-0 road record is +41% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3-0, 70%) is better than their expected 53% win percentage. The Maple Leafs are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.2% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.95 which ranks #2 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #3. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #23 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +2.14 which ranks them #1 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
56% CLB
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
64% @CAR
875 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
48% @CLB
508 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
65% PHI
508 miles
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
56% BOS
--
NOV 28
CLOSE GAME
52% SJ
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
46% @MIN
1102 miles
DEC 4
LIKELY WIN
66% @BUF
95 miles
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
72% DET
--
DEC 8
CLOSE GAME
47% @BOS
691 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.5%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Lightning by one point. With a -1 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Maple Leafs are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Maple Leafs are playing 7 games, traveling 3868 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Toronto Maple Leafs' next game is on November 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Maple Leafs are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3.6% chance of winning it all. On 10/16 they had a 10.7% chance before dropping to 3.3% on 11/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 6%. They have a 29.3% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (81%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 63% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 29.2%. Based on the odds, they have a 20% chance of winning the East (4/1) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the Finals 12.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #2 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #3 Easiest

Maple Leafs' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

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Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
31 Andersen, Frederik G6-423010/02/1989No College
28 Brown, Connor RW6-018301/14/1994No College
23 Dermott, Travis D6-020212/22/1996No College
63 Ennis, Tyler LW5-916110/06/1989No College
51 Gardiner, Jake D6-220307/04/1990No College
33 Gauthier, Frederik C6-523504/26/1995No College
2 Hainsey, Ron D6-320503/24/1981No College
3 Holl, Justin D6-420501/30/1992No College
11 Hyman, Zach LW6-120906/09/1992No College
18 Johnsson, Andreas LW5-1018111/21/1994No College
43 Kadri, Nazem C6-019210/06/1990No College
24 Kapanen, Kasperi RW6-119207/23/1996No College
32 Leivo, Josh RW6-219205/26/1993No College
26 Lindholm, Par C6-018310/05/1991No College
52 Marincin, Martin D6-521302/18/1992No College
12 Marleau, Patrick LW6-221809/15/1979No College
16 Marner, Mitchell RW6-017505/05/1997No College
92 Ozhiganov, Igor D6-221010/13/1992No College
44 Rielly, Morgan D6-121803/09/1994No College
40 Sparks, Garret G6-320106/28/1993No College
91 Tavares, John C6-120909/20/1990No College
22 Zaitsev, Nikita D6-219010/29/1991No College