Toronto
Maple Leafs
Stadium Scotiabank Arena
36-19-4 Overall | 9-6-3 ATLANTIC 3rd
TEAM STATSGFGAPOWER PLAY
Maple Leafs208167 21.15%
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  2/1
@
Red Wings
L / OT2-3
Sat  2/2
vs
Penguins
W3-2
Mon  2/4
vs
Ducks
W6-1
Wed  2/6
vs
Senators
W5-4
Sat  2/9
@
Canadiens
W / OT4-3
Sun  2/10
@
Rangers
L1-4
Tue  2/12
@
Avalanche
W5-2
Thu  2/14
@
Golden Knights
W6-3
Sat  2/16
@
Coyotes
L0-2
Tue  2/19
@
Blues
L / OT2-3
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The Maple Leafs next 6 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 21
CLOSE GAME
52% WAS
--
FEB 23
LIKELY WIN
75% MON
--
FEB 25
LIKELY WIN
70% BUF
--
FEB 27
LIKELY WIN
73% EDM
--
FEB 28**
CLOSE GAME
53% @NYI
554 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY WIN
74% BUF
--
MAR 4
CLOSE GAME
49% @CGY
2713 miles
MAR 6
LIKELY WIN
62% @VAN
3363 miles
MAR 9
LIKELY WIN
68% @EDM
2710 miles
MAR 11
CLOSE GAME
47% TB
--

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (30% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 8.2%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the Islanders for positioning. With a +1.08 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Capitals by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Capitals. There is only a 0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Maple Leafs are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Maple Leafs are playing 8 games, traveling 9897 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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According to Sportsline the Toronto Maple Leafs are -167 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 36-19-4 the Maple Leafs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 34 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 19-8-3 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-2-2, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Maple Leafs playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 64.6% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.69 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.17 (#13 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

Sportsline not only has a pick on every NHL game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Maple Leafs are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3.6% chance of winning it all. On 11/4 they had a 3.3% chance before increasing to 16.4% on 2/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 13.6%. They have a good shot at getting home ice advantage in the first round (90%). They have a 75% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 43.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the East (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 22.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #8 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #10 Easiest

Maple Leafs' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
31 Andersen, Frederik G6-423010/02/1989No College
28 Brown, Connor RW6-018301/14/1994No College
23 Dermott, Travis D6-020212/22/1996No College
63 Ennis, Tyler LW5-916110/06/1989No College
51 Gardiner, Jake D6-220307/04/1990No College
33 Gauthier, Frederik C6-523504/26/1995No College
2 Hainsey, Ron D6-320503/24/1981No College
3 Holl, Justin D6-420501/30/1992No College
11 Hyman, Zach LW6-120906/09/1992No College
18 Johnsson, Andreas LW5-1018111/21/1994No College
43 Kadri, Nazem C6-019210/06/1990No College
24 Kapanen, Kasperi RW6-119207/23/1996No College
26 Lindholm, Par LW6-018310/05/1991No College
12 Marleau, Patrick LW6-221809/15/1979No College
16 Marner, Mitchell RW6-017505/05/1997No College
34 Matthews, Auston C6-322009/17/1997No College
8 Muzzin, Jake D6-321302/21/1989No College
29 Nylander, William RW6-019105/01/1996No College
92 Ozhiganov, Igor D6-221010/13/1992No College
44 Rielly, Morgan D6-121803/09/1994No College
40 Sparks, Garret G6-320106/28/1993No College
91 Tavares, John C6-120909/20/1990No College
22 Zaitsev, Nikita D6-219010/29/1991No College