|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Maple Leafs next 6 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (30% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 8.2%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the Islanders for positioning. With a +1.08 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Capitals by 3 points. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Capitals. There is only a 0.24 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Maple Leafs are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Maple Leafs are playing 8 games, traveling 9897 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Toronto Maple Leafs are -167 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 36-19-4 the Maple Leafs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 34 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 19-8-3 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-2-2, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Maple Leafs playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 64.6% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #9 in the league back on 6/11.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.69 which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #8 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.17 (#13 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Maple Leafs are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3.6% chance of winning it all. On 11/4 they had a 3.3% chance before increasing to 16.4% on 2/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 13.6%. They have a good shot at getting home ice advantage in the first round (90%). They have a 75% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 43.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 22.2% chance of winning the East (7/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 22.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Maple Leafs' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Andersen, Frederik||G||6-4||230||10/02/1989||No College|
|28||Brown, Connor||RW||6-0||183||01/14/1994||No College|
|23||Dermott, Travis||D||6-0||202||12/22/1996||No College|
|63||Ennis, Tyler||LW||5-9||161||10/06/1989||No College|
|51||Gardiner, Jake||D||6-2||203||07/04/1990||No College|
|33||Gauthier, Frederik||C||6-5||235||04/26/1995||No College|
|2||Hainsey, Ron||D||6-3||205||03/24/1981||No College|
|3||Holl, Justin||D||6-4||205||01/30/1992||No College|
|11||Hyman, Zach||LW||6-1||209||06/09/1992||No College|
|18||Johnsson, Andreas||LW||5-10||181||11/21/1994||No College|
|43||Kadri, Nazem||C||6-0||192||10/06/1990||No College|
|24||Kapanen, Kasperi||RW||6-1||192||07/23/1996||No College|
|26||Lindholm, Par||LW||6-0||183||10/05/1991||No College|
|12||Marleau, Patrick||LW||6-2||218||09/15/1979||No College|
|16||Marner, Mitchell||RW||6-0||175||05/05/1997||No College|
|34||Matthews, Auston||C||6-3||220||09/17/1997||No College|
|8||Muzzin, Jake||D||6-3||213||02/21/1989||No College|
|29||Nylander, William||RW||6-0||191||05/01/1996||No College|
|92||Ozhiganov, Igor||D||6-2||210||10/13/1992||No College|
|44||Rielly, Morgan||D||6-1||218||03/09/1994||No College|
|40||Sparks, Garret||G||6-3||201||06/28/1993||No College|
|91||Tavares, John||C||6-1||209||09/20/1990||No College|
|22||Zaitsev, Nikita||D||6-2||190||10/29/1991||No College|