LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Canucks are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/25 they had a 0.4% chance before increasing to 42.4% on 1/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 43.7%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #1 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #2 Toughest

Canucks' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 21-21-6 the Canucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 19.2 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 19 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 42% of their road games and were expected to win 37%. At home they have a 45% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 45%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-3-2, 44%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In the pre-season, the Canucks were expected to be a below average team (#30) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations where the Canucks played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.7% of the time (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.23 which ranks #19 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #21. They are the #19 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #20 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 4 games is -0.5 which ranks them #21 over this stretch, slightly worse than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 3 games is generally good. They have 4 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
64% BUF
--
JAN 20
CLOSE GAME
59% DET
--
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
57% CAR
--
FEB 2
CLOSE GAME
40% @COL
1779 miles
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
42% @PHI
3871 miles
FEB 5**
LIKELY LOSS
30% @WAS
194 miles
FEB 7
CLOSE GAME
57% @CHI
2852 miles
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
45% CGY
--
FEB 11
CLOSE GAME
45% SJ
--
FEB 13
LIKELY LOSS
39% @ANA
1775 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 2-1 (43% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 20.2%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Ducks by one point. With a +0.69 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Coyotes. There is only a 0.47 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Canucks are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Canucks are playing 3 games, traveling 0 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Vancouver Canucks are -125 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.