SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 30-32-10 the Canucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 29.7 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 24 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have won 37% of their road games and were expected to win 37%. At home they have a 47% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 46%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-4-2, 40%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In the pre-season, the Canucks were expected to be a below average team (#30) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations where the Canucks played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 46.2% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 6/11.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.36 which ranks #23 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #25. They are the #22 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #23 ranked team among home teams. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.17 (#18 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Canucks next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY LOSS
37% @CHI
2852 miles
MAR 20
LIKELY WIN
61% OTT
--
MAR 23
LIKELY LOSS
39% CGY
--
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
39% CLB
--
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
57% ANA
--
MAR 28
LIKELY WIN
64% LA
--
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
55% DAL
--
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
41% SJ
--
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
46% @NSH
3269 miles
APR 6
LIKELY LOSS
35% @STL
2862 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.7%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.2%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Oilers by one point. With a +0.23 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Ducks by one point. With a +1.34 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Canucks are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Canucks are playing 7 games, traveling 2852 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Vancouver Canucks' next game. They are +165 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

Before the season, the Canucks were projected for 66.1 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 6/25 their projected points was 66.4 before increasing to 86.8 on 2/4. From the start of the season to now their projected point total is up to 80.7. The playoffs are not likely with their 2.9% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #8 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #1 Toughest

Canucks' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.