|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Capitals next 6 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 5.3%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Bruins by 4 points. They have a +1.21 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are in a battle with Islanders in the conference. With a +0.76 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Capitals are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Capitals are playing 8 games, traveling 5159 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Washington Capitals' next game. They are -200 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 42-23-7 the Capitals are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 39.3 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 57% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.3 wins. We have simulated the Capitals playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.4% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak rank was #2 in the league back on 12/29.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.28 which ranks #10 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #5. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #8 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.83 (#6 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Capitals are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.4% chance of winning it all. On 12/18 they had a 19.2% chance before dropping to 4.3% on 2/20. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 9.3%. They have a 59.6% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home ice advantage in the first round (68%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 65% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 37%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 16.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Capitals' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|19||Backstrom, Nicklas||C||6-1||210||11/23/1987||No College|
|72||Boyd, Travis||RW||5-11||185||09/14/1993||No College|
|65||Burakovsky, Andre||LW||6-3||201||02/09/1995||No College|
|74||Carlson, John||D||6-3||218||01/10/1990||No College|
|10||Connolly, Brett||RW||6-3||195||05/02/1992||No College|
|1||Copley, Pheonix||G||6-4||200||01/18/1992||No College|
|29||Djoos, Christian||D||6-0||169||08/06/1994||No College|
|26||Dowd, Nic||C||6-2||197||05/27/1990||No College|
|20||Eller, Lars||C||6-2||207||05/08/1989||No College|
|62||Hagelin, Carl||LW||5-11||186||08/23/1988||No College|
|70||Holtby, Braden||G||6-2||211||09/16/1989||No College|
|23||Jaskin, Dmitrij||LW||6-2||216||03/23/1993||No College|
|3||Jensen, Nick||D||6-0||194||09/21/1990||No College|
|6||Kempny, Michal||D||6-0||194||09/08/1990||No College|
|92||Kuznetsov, Evgeny||C||6-2||204||05/19/1992||No College|
|2||Niskanen, Matt||D||6-1||203||12/06/1986||No College|
|9||Orlov, Dmitry||D||5-11||212||07/23/1991||No College|
|44||Orpik, Brooks||D||6-3||217||09/26/1980||No College|
|77||Oshie, T.J.||RW||5-11||195||12/23/1986||No College|
|8||Ovechkin, Alex||LW||6-3||235||09/17/1985||No College|
|18||Stephenson, Chandler||LW||6-0||203||04/22/1994||No College|
|13||Vrana, Jakub||LW||6-0||197||02/28/1996||No College|
|43||Wilson, Tom||RW||6-4||218||03/29/1994||No College|