|TEAM STATS||GF||GA||POWER PLAY|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 6 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 7.6%. They have a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Predators by one point. With a +2.25 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Jets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Jets are playing 8 games, traveling 10910 miles crossing 10 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Winnipeg Jets are -172 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 42-25-4 the Jets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 39.6 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 53% of their road games and were expected to win 51%. At home they have a 65% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 61%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5-0, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Jets are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 2/5.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is +0.44 which ranks #7 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #13 in road games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 (#12 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Jets are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 12.1% chance of winning it all. On 2/4 they had a 21% chance before dropping to 7.1% on 2/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 10.5%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 9.4%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 91.8%. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 79% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 44.69%. Based on the odds, they have a 14.3% chance of winning the West (6/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 25% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Jets' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|88||Beaulieu, Nathan||D||6-2||200||12/05/1992||No College|
|30||Brossoit, Laurent||G||6-3||204||03/23/1993||No College|
|7||Chiarot, Ben||D||6-3||219||05/09/1991||No College|
|81||Connor, Kyle||LW||6-1||182||12/09/1996||No College|
|9||Copp, Andrew||C||6-1||206||07/08/1994||No College|
|27||Ehlers, Nikolaj||RW||6-0||172||02/14/1996||No College|
|12||Hayes, Kevin||C||6-5||216||05/08/1992||No College|
|37||Hellebuyck, Connor||G||6-4||207||05/19/1993||No College|
|15||Hendricks, Matt||C||6-0||211||06/17/1981||No College|
|52||Kiselevich, Bogdan||D||6-0||202||02/14/1990||No College|
|5||Kulikov, Dmitry||D||6-1||204||10/29/1990||No College|
|29||Laine, Patrik||LW||6-5||206||04/19/1998||No College|
|22||Lindholm, Par||LW||6-0||183||10/05/1991||No College|
|18||Little, Bryan||C||6-0||191||11/12/1987||No College|
|17||Lowry, Adam||C||6-5||210||03/29/1993||No College|
|44||Morrissey, Josh||D||6-0||195||03/28/1995||No College|
|57||Myers, Tyler||D||6-8||229||02/01/1990||No College|
|83||Niku, Sami||D||6-1||176||10/10/1996||No College|
|85||Perreault, Mathieu||LW||5-10||188||01/05/1988||No College|
|28||Roslovic, Jack||RW||6-1||187||01/29/1997||No College|
|55||Scheifele, Mark||C||6-3||207||03/15/1993||No College|
|13||Tanev, Brandon||RW||6-0||180||12/31/1991||No College|
|8||Trouba, Jacob||D||6-3||202||02/26/1994||No College|
|26||Wheeler, Blake||RW||6-5||225||08/31/1986||No College|