headshot
Duncan
Keith
College None
Team Chicago Blackhawks
2D
6'1"Height
192Weight
35Age
0Exp
Duncan Keith's Fantasy Scouting Report

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Most already consider Duncan Keith to be a good starting defenseman, but the projections indicate he is an elite fantasy option. As of 3/21, Duncan Keith is the #42 ranked defenseman based on ownership percentage (71%). He is projected to be the #29 defenseman. Even if he is highly owned, he is still undervalued and if you act quickly there is a clear buy low opportunity. Unless someone offers an even better defenseman value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for more FPs than Mathew Dumba who has virtually the same market rank (71% Owned) as Keith. He is projected for 13 fantasy points in 10 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#49) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Duncan Keith behind Gardiner and above Dumba and the projections agree.

Make sure to visit Sportsline for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

His rank in goals is better than his SOG rank indicating a relatively high shooting %.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

If you are in a league that allows for substitutions during the week Duncan Keith is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #42 while his projection rank (rest of week 25) is #15. When compared to other defensemen in week 26 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Justin Faulk (4.2 FP), T.J. Brodie (7 FP), Justin Schultz (4.3 FP), Oscar Klefbom (4.6 FP), and Mathew Dumba (4.1 FP). He is projected for more points than 4 other defensemen starting in more leagues: Jared Spurgeon (3.7 FP), Jeff Petry (3.7 FP), Ryan Pulock (3.6 FP), and Ryan McDonagh (3.4 FP). Starting in 56% of leagues he is expected to produce 4.6 fantasy points (WK 26). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #37 defenseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #56 defenseman. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 0.6 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 1.4 which is less than his actual per game average (2).

He is projected for 4.05 fantasy points in week 26 (#56 D) in 3 games.


  • Based on 3/21 start percentages, Duncan Keith is valued behind Theodore and above Schultz but the projections rank Duncan Keith over Theodore in week 26.
  • Duncan Keith last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (3/21): Keith is overrated on FanDuel with a projected 10.1 FD pts (#36 among defensemen). At $5200 he is expected to be the #22 defenseman. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $4.9K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 3 other options at $5200 (Aaron Ekblad, P.K. Subban, Jacob Trouba) and Keith is ranked #4 among the 4. Instead of Keith consider these better options at lower salaries: Brent Seabrook (10.4 FP), Oscar Klefbom (11.8 FP), Jeff Petry (11.4 FP), Mattias Ekholm (10.6 FP), and Ryan Pulock (11.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.7 FPs, a value reached in 27 of 72 games (38%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defensemen priced at $4.0K and above is 41%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Keith is overrated on DraftKings with a projected 2.9 DK pts (#34 among defensemen). At $4700 he is expected to be the #33 defenseman. Based on 3/21 salaries and projected points per dollar, Keith is worth $4.4K. There are 2 other options at $4700 (Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Zach Werenski) and Keith is ranked #2 among the 3. Instead of Keith consider these better options at lower salaries: Jeff Petry (3.2 FP), P.K. Subban (3.3 FP), Mattias Ekholm (3 FP), Ivan Provorov (3 FP), and Jaccob Slavin (2.9 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Justin Schultz (2.8 FP), Aaron Ekblad (2.9 FP), and Travis Hamonic (2.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.1 FPs, a value reached in 26 of 72 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for defenseman priced at $4.0K and above is 39%.

    Keith is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

    Duncan Keith had a good, but not elite, year in fantasy. He was the number #30 ranked defender and the #152 ranked skater overall. Playing 71 games and avoiding major injury helped his value. Based on average fantasy points he is the #40 defender. His age did not stop him from getting stronger throughout the season. He steadily increased his fantasy average as the season went on. He averaged 1.3 FPs in his first 23 games, 1.5 fantasy points in his next 23 and 3.1 FP after that. His standard deviation divided by his average is 1.63 which is close to the league ratio. Our projected ceiling for Keith when he 'goes off' is 11 fantasy points (his average is 2FPs).

    SportsLine has the best NHL picks and Daily Fantasy Lineups. In the off-season check out our coverage of all major leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, Horses, NASCAR, and Golf).

    STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

    Getting older did not stop Keith from increasing production. His average Fantasy points increased by 100% this season.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 5.6 fantasy points per week and had 11 weeks where he came up short (below 80% of average) and had 9 weeks where he was +20% above average.

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 9.9 points and on DraftKings it was 2.8 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0.5 and on FanDuel it was 1.6 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 5 and 19.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    Career Stats
    YEARTEAMGPGAPTS+/-PPGWGTFWFL
    2018CHI72530350-000000
    2017CHI82230320-021000
    2016CHI80647530-022000
    2015CHI67934430-044001
    2014CHI801035450-032000
    2013CHI79655610-033000
    2012CHI47324270-020000
    2011CHI74436400-011000
    2010CHI82738450-031000
    2009CHI821455690-031000
    2008CHI77836440-021000
    2007CHI821220320-010000
    2006CHI82229310-000000
    2005CHI81912210-010000
    Career (14 Seasons)1067974815781552716001
    YEARTEAMSS%TOISHIFTSPPTOISHTOIPIMMJRMSCMNR
    2018CHI1194.222:512001103.50149.25662313
    2017CHI1871.123:492419212.85199.05280014
    2016CHI1833.325:362379253:11195:1616008
    2015CHI1306.925:132063188:24179:3226018
    2014CHI1715.825:332392267:55187:39200010
    2013CHI1983.024:382380251:03188:17280014
    2012CHI913.324:061353128:50107:0031118
    2011CHI1622.526:532298233:57169:16420116
    2010CHI1734.026:522388244:51216:05220011
    2009CHI2136.626:352419230:24244:25511023
    2008CHI1734.625:342244189:54269:00600125
    2007CHI1488.125:322291176:17373:11560123
    2006CHI1221.623:352284136:30290:49762033
    2005CHI1346.723:252167107:45403:16791037
    Career (14 Seasons)22044.425:03310782725:223172:0460178243
    2018-19 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    Games in October1307740000240315:593890000
    Games in November13022-50000210288:4334619112
    Games in December15077-20000280319:1240237126
    Games in January10145-30000166.3232:442716003
    Games in February132810170000238.7309:203714002
    Games in March822410000728.6180:152220000
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    Games Won324812240000606.7742:0490510005
    Games Lost4012223-120000591.7904:09109656238
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    Home Games361202100000541.9850:2710168004
    Road Games3641014120000656.2795:4698558239
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    Before All-Star Break5112021-60000891.11156:381408622311
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    Amalie Arena1011100001024:23262001
    American Airlines Center2000100002045:54580000
    BB&T Center1000100008025:06300000
    Bell Centre1000000000020:30260000
    Bell MTS Place2011200005045:14562001
    Bridgestone Arena100000000102:42429122
    Canadian Tire Centre1000100004024:52320000
    Capital One Arena1011-200002025:07280000
    Enterprise Center2000100003050:04680000
    Honda Center2022200004043:53512001
    KeyBank Center11013000025022:32260000
    Little Caesars Arena1000100001026:46310000
    Madison Square Garden1000-100001024:16280000
    NYCB Live1011000002019:47262001
    Nationwide Arena1000200000023:49310000
    Notre Dame Stadium1000100000025:12290000
    PNC Arena1000200001022:31340000
    PPG Paints Arena110100000110020:56242001
    Pepsi Center2000000005044:30552001
    Prudential Center1000-500000021:36270000
    Rogers Arena1000000001024:16300000
    Rogers Place2000200004045:48580000
    SAP Center at San Jose1011000001023:03290000
    STAPLES Center1000-200001022:55290000
    Scotiabank Arena110130000110022:56300000
    Scotiabank Saddledome100000000000:37215110
    T-Mobile Arena1022100004025:11280000
    TD Garden111230000110023:25270000
    United Center3512021-10000541.9825:159878004
    Wells Fargo Center1000-300002025:00270000
    Xcel Energy Center2000-100007048:07642001
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    After All-Star Break21410141800003013.3489:355934002
    vs Anaheim Ducks3022300005068:25812001
    vs Arizona Coyotes2000-100001044:16530000
    vs Boston Bruins211240000110048:37560000
    vs Buffalo Sabres22022000054045:15540000
    vs Carolina Hurricanes2000300001046:19610000
    vs Columbus Blue Jackets2000200001048:47590000
    vs Calgary Flames3011-100003049:036115110
    vs Colorado Avalanche3011000006069:38882001
    vs Dallas Stars3022300005069:40852001
    vs Detroit Red Wings2000300004050:35590000
    vs Edmonton Oilers3011200004070:53860000
    vs Florida Panthers2000-1000010046:27622001
    vs Los Angeles Kings2000-300001048:26610000
    vs Minnesota Wild4000-300009093:111204002
    vs Montreal Canadiens2000-200003040:51520000
    vs New Jersey Devils2011-400001044:22540000
    vs Nashville Predators3011000002050:005729122
    vs New York Islanders2011000005045:10532001
    vs New York Rangers2011000004048:29530000
    vs Ottawa Senators2022000006051:09620000
    vs Philadelphia Flyers1000-300002025:00270000
    vs Pittsburgh Penguins211210000616.743:45552001
    vs San Jose Sharks2011-200001046:31560000
    vs St. Louis Blues4011200005098:151250000
    vs Tampa Bay Lightning2022000004050:10542001
    vs Toronto Maple Leafs21345000025045:28590000
    vs Vancouver Canucks3011100003072:23840000
    vs Washington Capitals2022000002044:22542001
    vs Winnipeg Jets3033200007069:38872001
    CATEGORYGPGAPTS+/-PPSHGWGTSS%TOISHIFTSPIMMJRMSCMNR
    vs Vegas Golden Knights3022-1000010071:08830000
    vs Western Conference Tms410161620000620921:27112756238
    vs Own Division2008840000340450:2256239127
    vs Eastern Conference Tms3151419100000578.8724:4687410005
    Outside Own Division525222780000855.91195:51143927116
    Overall72530351200001194.21646:132001662313
    2018 Game Log
    OCTOBERSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    10/04@W4-300010040.000024:873:781:82
    10/06@W5-400010030.000025:131:135:17
    10/07vsL7-603320010.000022:532:621:63
    10/11@L4-3000-30050.000025:874:071:55
    10/13vsW4-301110020.000023:682:051:58
    10/18vsL4-1000-10010.000021:271:470:00
    10/20@W4-100020000.000023:821:554:22
    10/21vsL6-3011-10030.000025:783:023:23
    10/23vsW3-100010010.000024:533:404:90
    10/25vsW4-101110030.000024:225:101:65
    10/27@L7-300000000.000024:931:404:60
    10/28vsL2-101100000.000025:084:681:17
    10/31@L4-200000010.000024:271:403:37
    NOVEMBERSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    11/01@L4-0000-10030.000024:572:883:75
    11/03@L5-300000000.000150:620:000:00
    11/08vsL4-300010000.000023:801:701:67
    11/10@L4-0000-30020.000025:002:284:03
    11/12@L3-200020010.000022:520:000:48
    11/14vsW1-000000000.000024:500:651:00
    11/16vsL2-1000-10000.000025:521:951:32
    11/18vsW3-100000020.000025:051:633:42
    11/21@L4-2011-20020.000025:122:473:25
    11/23@L4-201110010.000224:382:431:58
    11/24@W5-400010080.000025:103:682:70
    11/27vsL8-3000-30010.000020:170:001:37
    11/29@L6-500000010.000222:380:101:27
    DECEMBERSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    12/01@L5-200000010.000292:700:000:00
    12/02vsL3-200000000.000024:030:074:83
    12/05@L4-201110010.000221:520:000:00
    12/06@L4-302210040.000025:180:030:40
    12/09vsL3-2000-20030.000020:351:873:30
    12/11@L6-301120040.000022:850:331:85
    12/12vsW6-301110050.000022:821:081:75
    12/14vsL4-302200020.000024:400:003:47
    12/16vsL7-3000-20000.000023:470:901:75
    12/18vsW2-100000000.000021:171:421:90
    12/20@W5-200010010.000024:850:001:32
    12/21@W2-100000020.000221:471:852:97
    12/23vsL6-3000-20020.000221:351:832:12
    12/27vsW5-2000-20000.000220:021:072:70
    12/29@W3-200000030.000023:030:003:18
    JANUARYSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    01/01vsL4-200010000.000025:202:572:08
    01/03@L3-201100020.000219:780:850:35
    01/06@W5-310100011.000220:930:582:25
    01/07vsL4-3011-10030.000024:401:321:80
    01/09vsL4-301100010.000026:130:284:38
    01/12vsL4-300010050.000025:780:981:85
    01/14@L8-5000-50000.000021:600:870:95
    01/17@L4-3000-10010.000024:271:301:00
    01/20vsW8-501120000.000219:250:481:53
    01/22vsW3-200000030.000025:380:682:50
    FEBRUARYSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    02/01@W7-310130020.500022:531:753:60
    02/02@W4-300020020.000222:251:272:85
    02/05@W6-200030010.000021:232:052:77
    02/07vsW4-300000020.000024:031:853:15
    02/10vsW5-200020030.000023:820:831:92
    02/12@L6-311230011.000023:421:823:33
    02/14vsW5-201110010.000022:772:002:37
    02/16vsL5-200000010.000024:970:001:27
    02/18vsW8-7022-10020.000026:281:882:53
    02/20@W5-400010010.000026:770:732:63
    02/22vsL5-301100010.000025:130:783:80
    02/24vsL4-302220030.000223:772:000:17
    02/27@W4-301110030.000022:373:081:20
    MARCHSCORINGPENALTIESTIME ON ICE
    DATETEAMOPPRESULTGAPTS+/-PPGSHGSOGSPCTPIMTOIPPSH
    03/02@L6-3000-20010.000022:921:530:98
    03/03@L5-201100010.000023:050:480:82
    03/07vsW5-4101-10030.333022:722:201:32
    03/09@W2-100000010.000021:051:130:00
    03/11vsW7-100000000.000023:000:601:85
    03/13@W5-410130011.000022:930:000:00
    03/16@W2-000000000.000020:500:751:75
    03/18vsL3-201110000.000024:080:930:00