NHL Playoff Power Rankings: Boston Bruins a 53 Percent Favorite Finish on Top

1BOSTON BRUINS 64-30-11
Win 57% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Home ice has not been a huge advantage in the Stanley Cup Finals but the Bruins do have the Game 7 advantage with a 53 percent chance of winning.  The regular season went better than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 46.4. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (51%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 25.5. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Bruins could take a step back next season.

2ST. LOUIS BLUES 60-36-11
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Blues have a nearly 50% chance of getting another win in Boston and shockingly taking the Cup.  The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.8 wins. Their 45 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 19.8. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (56%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Blues could take a step back next season.

3TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 62-20-4
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 62 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 73.2% on the road which was much better than expected (55.7%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Lightning could take a step back next season.

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4FLORIDA PANTHERS 36-32-14
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If the Panthers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 36 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (53.7%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%).

5TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 49-32-8
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (63%). They won 56.1% on the road which was better than expected (53.3%).

6CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 36-34-12
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If the Blackhawks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 36.5 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They won 41.5% on the road which was as expected (40.2%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20.

7COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 53-34-5
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 47 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 23.8. The Blue Jackets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

8CALGARY FLAMES 51-27-9
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 50 games vs an expected win total of 45.9. Their strength was in road games. They won 58.5% on the road which was much better than expected (50.8%). They won 26 at home and were expected to win 25. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Flames could take a step back next season.

9WASHINGTON CAPITALS 51-29-9
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 44.6. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 24.3. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Capitals could take a step back next season.

10SAN JOSE SHARKS 56-36-10
Win 51% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.7. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.7. The Sharks may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

11WINNIPEG JETS 49-34-5
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 45.4. Their strength was in road games. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (50.7%). The Jets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

12COLORADO AVALANCHE 45-35-14
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 38 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. Their 51.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (56.7%).

13VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46-34-9
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 46.5. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (61.9%). They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Golden Knights could take a step back next season.

14MONTREAL CANADIENS 44-30-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.7 wins. Their 44 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (55.1%). They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Canadiens could take a step back next season.

15CAROLINA HURRICANES 54-35-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 46 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 20. Their 58.5% home win percentage was as expected (58.4%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Hurricanes could take a step back next season.

16PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 37-37-8
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 39.3. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 18-23 on the road and were expected to win 17.5. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.8.

17PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 44-29-13
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 44 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.3. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 24.9. The Penguins may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

18VANCOUVER CANUCKS 35-36-11
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

If the Canucks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 35 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 15. Their 48.8% home win percentage was better than expected (46%).

19NEW YORK ISLANDERS 52-30-8
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 18.1. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (53.5%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Islanders could take a step back next season.

20NASHVILLE PREDATORS 49-32-7
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 47 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 21.6. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (63.1%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Predators could take a step back next season.

21EDMONTON OILERS 35-38-9
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 39 wins. Their 35 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 17.2. They won 18 at home and were expected to win 21.8.

22MINNESOTA WILD 37-36-9
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 42.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. They won 16 at home and were expected to win 23.4.

23OTTAWA SENATORS 29-47-6
Win 42% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The Senators could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral ice simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 29 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.1 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 13.4. Their 43.9% home win percentage was better than expected (40.9%).

24DALLAS STARS 50-36-9
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 41.4. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 22.8. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Stars could take a step back next season.

25ARIZONA COYOTES 39-35-8
Win 40% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 39 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.9 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (51.3%). They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (39.2%). The Coyotes may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

26ANAHEIM DUCKS 35-37-10
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 36.2. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 46.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (49.1%). They won 39% on the road which was as expected (39.2%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Ducks could take a step back next season.

27DETROIT RED WINGS 32-40-10
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 31.9. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 13.9. Their 41.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (43.9%).

28NEW JERSEY DEVILS 31-41-10
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 31 games vs an expected win total of 35.5. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.9%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 19.5.

29NEW YORK RANGERS 32-36-14
Win 37% of Neutral Ice Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 34.5. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.1. Their 43.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.2%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rangers could take a step back next season.

30BUFFALO SABRES 33-39-10
Win 36% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 16.6. They won 21 at home and were expected to win 20.3. The Sabres may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 31-42-9
Win 35% of Neutral Ice Simulations

Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38%). They won 17 at home and were expected to win 19.8. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Kings could take a step back next season.