San Jose Sharks to Go Over 94.5 Points and a Lock at -190 to Make Playoffs

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

Our computer projection is higher on the Sharks than most anyone outside of San Jose. They are projected for 101 points, well over 94.5 that Vegas has and are making the playoffs in 92% of simluations (line -190, 65.5%). They have a 56.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.5%. They have 7.4% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.3 wins. Their 46 actual wins was below expectation. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52.9%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.7.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since 10/3/2018 their average goal differential is +0.23 (includes playoff games) which ranks #11 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #8. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #7 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #15 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 102 Games3.4 (#4)10.5% (#4)32.5 (#12)
Road3.2 (#4)9.8% (#7)32.7 (#5)
Home3.6 (#3)11.2% (#4)32.2 (#15)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.18 (#22)88.9% (#31)28.7 (#3)
Road3.46 (#24)88.3% (#2929.6 (#4)
Home2.9 (#17)89.6% (#28)27.8 (#2)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Sharks in all of their games would be down -124 units. Against the puck line, they have lost -1113 units risking 100 units on each pick (33-49 PL). They are down against the puck line at home and on the road.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.5 - 3.246-27-9, -12433-49, -111346-33 58.2% Over3328.3
On Road3.4 - 3.521-16-4, -18517-24, -61423-17 57.5% Over33.629.3
At Home3.6 - 2.925-11-5, -23716-25, -49923-16 59% Over32.427.4
4/6 COL5-2Win +61Covered -1.5Over 6.53030
4/4 @EDM3-2Win +66Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52728
4/2 @VAN2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53523
3/31 CGY3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.51528
3/30 LV4-3Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53426
3/28 CHI4-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53027
3/25 DET2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.54122
3/22 @ANA3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.52621
3/21 @LA2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Push 62535
3/18 LV3-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53942
3/16 NSH2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52630
3/14 FLA2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 72827
3/12 @WPG5-4Win +110Covered +1.5Over 6.53625
3/11 @MIN3-0Win +80Covered -1.5Under 62924
3/9 STL3-2Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63319
3/7 MON5-2Win +56Covered -1.5Over 6.52539
3/3 CHI5-2Win +31Covered -1.5Push 73430
3/1 COL4-3Win +63Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.54025
2/26 @BOS1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52032
2/24 @DET5-3Win +53Covered -1.5Over 6.53723
2/23 @CLB0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52626
2/21 @PIT4-0Win +86Covered +1.5Under 73326
2/18 BOS5-6 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63820
2/16 VAN3-2Win +34Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52634
2/14 WAS1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52629
2/11 @VAN7-2Win +57Covered -1.5Over 6.52427
2/9 @EDM5-2Win +72Covered -1.5Over 6.53123
2/7 @CGY5-2Win +120Covered +1.5Over 6.53038
2/5 @WPG3-2Win +113Covered +1.5Under 6.53827
2/2 ARI3-2Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63533
1/22 @WAS7-6Win +115Covered +1.5Over 6.54339
1/21 @FLA2-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52930
1/19 @TB3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 6.53926
1/16 @ARI3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62941
1/15 PIT5-2Win +71Covered -1.5Over 6.52924
1/12 OTT4-1Win +29Covered -1.5Under 6.53228
1/10 @LV3-2Win +100Covered +1.5Under 62738
1/8 EDM7-2Win +48Covered -1.5Over 6.53622
1/7 LA3-1Win +44Covered -1.5Under 5.52923
1/5 TB5-2Win +100Covered +1.5Over 6.53320
1/2 @COL5-4Win +86Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52735
12/31 @CGY5-8Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 6.53327
12/29 @EDM7-4Win +74Covered -1.5Over 6.54026
12/27 ANA4-2Win +56Covered -1.5Push 63927
12/23 ARI3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63826
12/22 LA2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63131
12/20 WPG3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.54424
12/18 @MIN4-0Win +95Covered +1.5Under 62526
12/16 @CHI7-3Win +57Covered -1.5Over 6.54320
12/13 DAL3-2Win +50Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62422
12/10 NJ5-2Win +55Covered -1.5Over 63424
12/8 @ARI5-3Win +74Covered -1.5Over 5.53320
12/7 @DAL2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54330
12/5 CAR5-1Win +67Covered -1.5Over 5.52340
12/2 @MON3-1Win +86Covered -1.5Under 6.52941
12/1 @OTT2-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53827
11/28 @TOR3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 64129
11/27 @BUF2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63831
11/24 @LV0-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53336
11/23 VAN4-0Win +34Covered -1.5Under 62419
11/20 EDM3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62523
11/17 STL4-0Win +53Covered -1.5Under 5.52930
11/15 TOR3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 64534
11/13 NSH5-4Win +69Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53734
11/11 CGY3-1Win +56Covered -1.5Under 5.52930
11/9 @STL0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63331
11/8 @DAL3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53622
11/6 MIN4-3Win +65Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.52226
11/3 PHI4-3Win +50Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63525
11/1 CLB1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64527
10/30 NYR3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63437
10/28 @ANA4-3Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.54930
10/26 @CAR3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62341
10/23 @NSH5-4Win +115Covered +1.5Over 5.53229
10/20 NYI4-1Win +42Covered -1.5Under 64125
10/18 BUF5-1Win +42Covered -1.5Over 5.53925
10/14 @NJ2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63936
10/11 @NYR2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64327
10/9 @PHI8-2Win +105Covered +1.5Over 64833
10/8 @NYI0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63530
10/5 @LA3-2Win +80Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53321
10/3 ANA2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53315