Toronto Maple Leafs Finish the Season 46-36 and They are Projected to Win 49 Next Season, But They Still Should Have Home Ice in the First Round of the Playoffs

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

They have a 55.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 27.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 16.5%. They have 10% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

Their 46 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 23-18 on the road and were expected to win 21.9. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (63%).

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since 10/3/2018 their average goal differential is +0.35 (includes playoff games) which ranks #5 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #7 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #12 in home games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 89 Games3.4 (#3)10.2% (#6)33.3 (#5)
Road3.29 (#2)9.6% (#10)34.1 (#1)
Home3.52 (#5)10.9% (#6)32.4 (#14)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.06 (#20)90.8% (#10)33.3 (#27)
Road3.04 (#15)90.9% (#933.4 (#25)
Home3.07 (#24)90.8% (#17)33.2 (#27)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Maple Leafs in all of their games would have earned a +216 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the puck line, they have lost -307 units risking 100 units on each pick (37-45 PL).

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.5 - 3.146-28-8, +21637-45, -30740-38 51.3% Over33.433.1
On Road3.4 - 3.123-12-6, +21620-21, -20919-20 51.3% Under34.433.3
At Home3.6 - 3.023-16-2, -63017-24, -9821-18 53.8% Over32.333
4/6 @MON5-6 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 6.54949
4/4 TB1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 73029
4/2 CAR1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.52437
4/1 @NYI2-1Win +95Covered +1.5Under 63829
3/30 @OTT2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 74422
3/27 @PHI4-5 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 74244
3/25 FLA7-5Win +47Covered -1.5Over 6.53736
3/23 NYR1-2 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.54528
3/20 @BUF4-2Win +72Covered -1.5Under 6.54624
3/19 @NSH0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.52220
3/16 @OTT2-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53744
3/15 PHI7-6Win +46Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.55129
3/13 CHI4-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 74739
3/11 TB2-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52842
3/9 @EDM3-2Win +62Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.54033
3/6 @VAN2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53031
3/4 @CGY6-2Win +118Covered +1.5Over 6.53237
3/2 BUF5-2Win +37Covered -1.5Over 6.53237
2/28 @NYI1-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.53537
2/27 EDM6-2Win +42Covered -1.5Over 6.53636
2/25 BUF5-3Win +38Covered -1.5Over 6.53334
2/23 MON6-3Win +53Covered -1.5Over 63635
2/21 WAS2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.54228
2/19 @STL2-3 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 63341
2/16 @ARI0-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62229
2/14 @LV6-3Win +92Covered +1.5Over 6.54333
2/12 @COL5-2Win +71Covered -1.5Over 6.52836
2/10 @NYR1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.55630
2/9 @MON4-3Win +77Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53238
2/6 OTT5-4Win +30Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53044
2/4 ANA6-1Win +37Covered -1.5Over 64425
2/2 PIT3-2Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53330
2/1 @DET2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52133
1/23 WAS6-3Win +53Covered -1.5Over 6.53744
1/20 ARI2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Push 62631
1/18 @FLA1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52129
1/17 @TB4-2Win +125Covered +1.5Under 6.53138
1/14 COL3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52038
1/12 BOS2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53229
1/10 @NJ4-2Win +62Covered -1.5Under 6.54329
1/7 NSH0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 61832
1/5 VAN5-0Win +36Covered -1.5Under 6.53428
1/3 MIN3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.54134
12/29 NYI0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53628
12/28 @CLB4-2Win +86Covered -1.5Under 6.52929
12/23 DET5-4Win +33Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52430
12/22 NYR5-3Win +35Covered -1.5Over 6.53628
12/20 FLA6-1Win +44Covered -1.5Over 6.52626
12/18 @NJ7-2Win +66Covered -1.5Over 6.53129
12/15 @FLA3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53233
12/13 @TB1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.54921
12/11 @CAR4-1Win +76Covered -1.5Under 62930
12/8 @BOS3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63232
12/6 DET4-5 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53132
12/4 @BUF4-3Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63041
12/1 @MIN5-3Win +105Covered +1.5Over 62341
11/28 SJ5-3Win +58Covered -1.5Over 62941
11/26 BOS4-2Win +63Covered -1.5Over 5.53140
11/24 PHI6-0Win +71Covered -1.5Under 6.54134
11/23 @CLB2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Push 63424
11/21 @CAR2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63245
11/19 CLB4-2Win +71Covered -1.5Push 62639
11/16 @ANA2-1Win +80Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53539
11/15 @SJ5-3Win +120Covered +1.5Over 63445
11/13 @LA5-1Win +80Covered -1.5Over 5.53523
11/10 @BOS1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Push 64134
11/9 NJ6-1Win +65Covered -1.5Over 63239
11/6 LV3-1Win +74Covered -1.5Under 5.52137
11/3 @PIT5-0Win +120Covered +1.5Under 6.53331
11/1 DAL1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63219
10/29 CGY1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62534
10/27 WPG3-2Win +68Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53124
10/24 @WPG4-2Win +118Covered +1.5Under 6.53940
10/20 STL1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62325
10/18 PIT0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53838
10/15 LA4-1Win +57Covered -1.5Under 62534
10/13 @WAS4-2Win +95Covered +1.5Under 6.52827
10/11 @DET5-3Win +59Covered -1.5Over 6.53529
10/9 @DAL7-4Win +105Covered +1.5Over 6.53034
10/7 @CHI7-6Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53431
10/6 OTT3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63724
10/3 MON3-2Win +41Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62636