NHL Outlook: Bet on the Pittsburgh Penguins to Win the Championship at 25/1, 3.8%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Hurricanes

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the Cup. Even with the juice, the Penguins are a good betting value. Their 4% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #11 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the East at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 8.4%. The Penguins are averaging 98.5 points per sim which makes them a decent bet to go over 96.5. At -190 the Penguins are a good value to make the playoffs with a 81.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 9/2, 18.2%. They win the division in 29% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 56% of their games last season so their 44-26-12 met expectations. Money Line bettors lost -522 on them. They went 39-43 on puck lines (-157 loss). More of their games came in under (41) than went over (35). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Buffalo Sabres. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/3 BUF69%1-0-2, -1382-1
10/5 CLB52%3-1, +1851-3
10/8 WPG57%2-0, +2011-1
10/10 ANA67%1-1, -291-0-1
10/12 MIN61%2-0, +1760-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.29 (includes playoff games) which ranks #8 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #12. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #3 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #19 in home games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 86 Games3.22 (#8)9.7% (#12)33.3 (#4)
Road3.26 (#3)9.9% (#5)33 (#3)
Home3.19 (#12)9.5% (#16)33.6 (#7)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.93 (#15)91.2% (#7)33.2 (#25)
Road2.79 (#8)91.4% (#732.4 (#16)
Home3.07 (#25)91% (#14)34 (#29)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Sidney Crosby who is projected to be the #3 Center. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Sidney Crosby1003Steven StamkosNathan MacKinnon
Kris Letang995Morgan RiellyJohn Carlson
Jake Guentzel9610Teuvo TeravainenElias Lindholm
Evgeni Malkin9814Dylan LarkinJonathan Toews
Alex Galchenyuk3220Chris KreiderZach Parise
Justin Schultz6925Darnell NurseFilip Hronek
Matt Murray8528Mike SmithAnders Nilsson
Casey DeSmith2832Jonathan QuickAlex Stalock
Sam Lafferty045Dustin BrownAlexander Nylander
Anthony Angello046Ryan PoehlingBrock Nelson