NHL Outlook: Bet on the Edmonton Oilers to Have Under 85.5 Points...Projected to Finish Ahead of Wild

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Oilers are not contenders to win the championship at 50/1, 2%. They do not have any real chance to win the championship. In simulations, they win the West 0.3% of the time and are not a good value at 25/1, 3.8%. The Oilers are averaging 81.9 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 85.5. At +240 the Oilers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 18.6% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 39 based on their money line game odds. Their 35-38-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1167 units. They were not good on puck lines going 35-47 (-2296 loss). They went over 37 times and came in under 40 times. Their next game vs the Canucks should be close. The Oilers are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/2 VAN51%2-2, -490-2-2
10/5 LA61%2-2, -852-2
10/8 NYI39%1-1, 02-0
10/10 NJ46%0-2, -2002-0
10/12 NYR46%2-0, +1470-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is -0.51 (includes playoff games) which ranks #24 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #25. They are the #24 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #25 ranked team among home teams.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 82 Games2.79 (#20)9.6% (#13)29.2 (#27)
Road2.59 (#23)9.2% (#17)28.1 (#28)
Home3 (#18)9.9% (#10)30.2 (#23)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.3 (#25)89.6% (#27)31.7 (#18)
Road3.41 (#23)89.2% (#2531.6 (#12)
Home3.2 (#29)90% (#26)31.8 (#21)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Connor McDavid who is projected to be the #1 Center. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Connor McDavid1001--Steven Stamkos
Leon Draisaitl1001--Brad Marchand
Mike Smith5927Carter HuttonMatt Murray
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins9029Logan CoutureBo Horvat
Alex Chiasson2241Rickard RakellNick Ritchie
Darnell Nurse7623Neal PionkOliver Ekman-Larsson
Zack Kassian1169Chris StewartJonny Brodzinski
Sam Gagner170Michael GrabnerAlexandre Texier
Mikko Koskinen5558Samuel MontembeaultRyan Miller
Oscar Klefbom5163Travis SanheimMichal Kempny