SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
The Oilers are not contenders to win the championship at 50/1, 2%. They do not have any real chance to win the championship. In simulations, they win the West 0.3% of the time and are not a good value at 25/1, 3.8%. The Oilers are averaging 81.9 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 85.5. At +240 the Oilers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 18.6% chance. They have less than 1% chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the West.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NHL games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Oddsmakers expected them to win 39 based on their money line game odds. Their 35-38-9 record last season failed to meet expectations. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1167 units. They were not good on puck lines going 35-47 (-2296 loss). They went over 37 times and came in under 40 times. Their next game vs the Canucks should be close. The Oilers are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
|10/2 VAN||51%||2-2, -49||0-2-2|
|10/5 LA||61%||2-2, -85||2-2|
|10/8 NYI||39%||1-1, 0||2-0|
|10/10 NJ||46%||0-2, -200||2-0|
|10/12 NYR||46%||2-0, +147||0-2|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is -0.51 (includes playoff games) which ranks #24 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #25. They are the #24 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #25 ranked team among home teams.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 82 Games||2.79 (#20)||9.6% (#13)||29.2 (#27)|
|Road||2.59 (#23)||9.2% (#17)||28.1 (#28)|
|Home||3 (#18)||9.9% (#10)||30.2 (#23)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.3 (#25)||89.6% (#27)||31.7 (#18)|
|Road||3.41 (#23)||89.2% (#25||31.6 (#12)|
|Home||3.2 (#29)||90% (#26)||31.8 (#21)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Connor McDavid who is projected to be the #1 Center. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Connor McDavid||100||1||--||Steven Stamkos|
|Leon Draisaitl||100||1||--||Brad Marchand|
|Mike Smith||59||27||Carter Hutton||Matt Murray|
|Ryan Nugent-Hopkins||90||29||Logan Couture||Bo Horvat|
|Alex Chiasson||22||41||Rickard Rakell||Nick Ritchie|
|Darnell Nurse||76||23||Neal Pionk||Oliver Ekman-Larsson|
|Zack Kassian||11||69||Chris Stewart||Jonny Brodzinski|
|Sam Gagner||1||70||Michael Grabner||Alexandre Texier|
|Mikko Koskinen||55||58||Samuel Montembeault||Ryan Miller|
|Oscar Klefbom||51||63||Travis Sanheim||Michal Kempny|