NHL Outlook: Bet on the New Jersey Devils to Have Under 90.5 Points...Projected to Finish Ahead of Sabres

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 25/1, 3.8% odds to win the Stanley Cup. They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. They are not a good value to win the East either at 12/1, 7.7%. The Devils are averaging 83.9 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 90.5. At -110 the Devils are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 19.2% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 6/1, 14.3%. They win the division in 1.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 35.5 based on their money line game odds. Their 31-41-10 record last season failed to meet expectations. Anyone betting on them to win every game would have lost a lot (-1392) based on a 100 unit risk per game. They were not good on puck lines going 44-38 (-335 loss). They went over 40 times and came in under 39 times. Their next game vs the Jets should be close. The Devils are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/4 WPG51%0-1-1, -2002-0
10/5 BUF47%2-1, +971-2
10/9 PHI42%2-2, +212-2
10/10 EDM54%2-0, +3632-0
10/12 BOS31%1-2, -102-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is -0.63 (includes playoff games) which ranks #28 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #29. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #18 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #30 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 82 Games2.67 (#25)8.8% (#22)30.3 (#22)
Road2.49 (#25)8.2% (#25)30.4 (#19)
Home2.85 (#22)9.4% (#18)30.2 (#23)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.3 (#25)89.5% (#28)31.6 (#15)
Road3.88 (#30)88.5% (#2833.7 (#27)
Home2.73 (#11)90.7% (#18)29.5 (#9)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Cory Schneider who is projected to be the #22 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Cory Schneider2922Jacob MarkstromCorey Crawford
Taylor Hall884Alex OvechkinJohnny Gaudreau
Kyle Palmieri8624Evgenii DadonovAnthony Mantha
Nico Hischier6138Ryan GetzlafDylan Strome
Jesper Bratt1336Tyler JohnsonPatrik Laine
Blake Coleman1246Jake DeBruskDanick Martel
Travis Zajac751Cody EakinNazem Kadri
Damon Severson4829Cody CeciSeth Jones
MacKenzie Blackwood2052Alexandar GeorgievLinus Ullmark
Pavel Zacha577Derek StepanColin White