NHL Outlook: Bet on the Florida Panthers to Have Under 95.5 Points...Projected to Finish Ahead of Islanders

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the Stanley Cup. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.8% chance is #16 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 2.1% of the time and are not a good value at 9/1, 10%. The Panthers are averaging 90.5 points per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 95.5. At -220 the Panthers are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 47.8% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 7/1, 12.5%. They win the division in 1.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 36-32-14 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their expected win percentage was 49%. Putting a 100 units on them to win every game would have cost you -1114 units. They were not good on puck lines going 45-37 (-450 loss). They went over 47 times and came in under 29 times. In their next game vs the Lightning they are only winning 30% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/3 TB30%0-2-2, -4003-1
10/5 TB44%0-2-2, -4003-1
10/8 CAR56%0-2-1, -3002-1
10/11 BUF52%3-1, +1322-1-1
10/12 NYI42%2-0-1, +470-2-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is -0.11 (includes playoff games) which ranks #18 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #13 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #23 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 82 Games3.22 (#9)9.8% (#10)33 (#6)
Road3.07 (#7)9.4% (#13)32.7 (#7)
Home3.37 (#7)10.1% (#8)33.3 (#9)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.33 (#28)89.1% (#30)30.7 (#10)
Road3.73 (#27)87.9% (#3130.9 (#8)
Home2.93 (#18)90.4% (#21)30.5 (#15)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Sergei Bobrovsky who is projected to be the #20 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Sergei Bobrovsky8520Carey PriceJacob Markstrom
Aleksander Barkov996Brayden PointPatrice Bergeron
Jonathan Huberdeau956Johnny GaudreauGabriel Landeskog
Mike Hoffman9416Timo MeierChris Kreider
Evgenii Dadonov9124Reilly SmithCory Conacher
Keith Yandle9613John KlingbergRoman Josi
Dominic Toninato050Sven BaertschiPatrick Maroon
Owen Tippett1051Nino NiederreiterKristian Vesalainen
Frank Vatrano1763Jason ZuckerMilan Lucic
Vincent Trocheck6969Alex KerfootNick Bjugstad