NHL Outlook: The St. Louis Blues are a Good Bet to Make the Playoffs at -220...Projected to Finish Ahead of Predators

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 16/1, 5.9% (#6). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 3.3% chance is #11 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 8.8% of the time and are not a good value at 7/1, 12.5%. The Blues are averaging 94.3 points per sim which makes them a decent bet to come under 96.5. At -220 the Blues are a good value to make the playoffs with a 69.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/1, 16.7%. They win the division in 12.7% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 52% of their games last season so their 45-28-9 met expectations. In terms of money line profit, they were one of the best teams at +382. They were not good on puck lines going 40-42 (-777 loss). More of their games came in under (44) than went over (34). Their next game vs the Capitals should be close. The Blues are winning 50 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/2 WAS50%2-0, +2501-1
10/5 DAL54%5-6, -1114-5-2
10/7 TOR44%2-0, +2330-2
10/10 OTT56%1-1, -550-2
10/12 MON52%1-1, -240-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.27 (includes playoff games) which ranks #10 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #6. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #20 in home games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 108 Games2.95 (#15)9.4% (#15)31.4 (#17)
Road2.83 (#16)9.2% (#18)30.9 (#17)
Home3.07 (#16)9.7% (#14)31.9 (#17)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.69 (#6)90.6% (#14)28.6 (#2)
Road2.37 (#1)91.8% (#528.9 (#2)
Home3 (#20)89.4% (#30)28.3 (#5)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jordan Binnington who is projected to be the #12 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jordan Binnington7212Philipp GrubauerSemyon Varlamov
Ryan O'Reilly9424Max DomiMatt Duchene
Vladimir Tarasenko9914Tom WilsonViktor Arvidsson
David Perron5918Brock BoeserSam Reinhart
Brayden Schenn8053Anthony AngelloCody Eakin
Alex Pietrangelo9126Damon SeversonBrandon Montour
Erik Foley059Zack SmithAnthony Cirelli
Jake Allen4938Thomas GreissCam Talbot
Jaden Schwartz6074Jimmy VeseyNikita Gusev
Tyler Bozak683Nick BoninoFrans Nielsen