Avalanche Playoff Chances At 74%... And Are Trending Up

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Avalanche are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 36% chance of making the playoffs. On 8/3 they had a 21.6% chance before increasing to 88.8% on 11/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 73.6%. They have a very slim chance (

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Avalanche's Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected PTSPlayoff% ChampNHL Champ
Jan 1890.173.6%1.8%0.3%
Dec 20101.288.5%8.9%2.9%
Difference-11.1-14.9%-7.1%-2.6%

Stream Colorado games with SlingTV

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 21-18-8 Avalanche 'should have' 24 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 12 good wins but they also have 12 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 9-6-5 home record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 2-6-2, 20%. The Avalanche should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on neutral ice with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 7/20.

Their record should be better. Their average goal differential is +0.17 which ranks #13 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #10 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #16 in home games. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.5 (#21 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 47 Games3.38 (#7)10.5% (#9)32.3 (#11)
Road3.48 (#3)10.7% (#5)32.6 (#9)
Home3.25 (#12)10.2% (#15)31.9 (#15)
Last 6 Games3.5 (#8)9.5% (#17)36.8 (#1)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.21 (#24)89.7% (#24)31.1 (#17)
Road3.48 (#23)89.3% (#2132.4 (#20)
Home2.85 (#18)90.2% (#25)29.2 (#8)
Last 6 Games4 (#28)83.3% (#31)24 (#2)

NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 3 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 19
LIKELY WIN
68% LA
--
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
46% NSH
--
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
52% MIN
--
FEB 2
CLOSE GAME
60% VAN
--
FEB 5
CLOSE GAME
52% CLB
--
FEB 7
LIKELY LOSS
35% @WAS
2402 miles
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
57% @NYI
2626 miles
FEB 10**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @BOS
307 miles
FEB 12
CLOSE GAME
41% TOR
--
FEB 14
LIKELY LOSS
33% @WPG
1287 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 3 games is a record of 2-1 (42% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 16.3%. At #7 in the conference, they are fighting with the Stars for positioning. With a +1.28 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Wild by one point. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Wild. There is only a 0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 3 games.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Avalanche are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Avalanche are playing 3 games, traveling 0 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Colorado Avalanche's next game. They are -200 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Mikko Rantanen3.5100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Semyon Varlamov4.274% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Nathan MacKinnon3.7100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Gabriel Landeskog2.9100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)
Tyson Barrie2.1100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #7)
J.T. Compher1.527% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #48)