Blackhawks' Next 2 Game Prediction: 1-1, With a 16% Chance at 2-0

NEXT 2 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 2 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 20
LIKELY LOSS
31% WAS
--
JAN 22
CLOSE GAME
50% NYI
--
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
46% @BUF
732 miles
FEB 2**
LIKELY LOSS
29% @MIN
1162 miles
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
30% @EDM
2309 miles
FEB 7
CLOSE GAME
43% VAN
--
FEB 10
CLOSE GAME
54% DET
--
FEB 12
LIKELY LOSS
22% @BOS
1370 miles
FEB 14
CLOSE GAME
44% NJ
--
FEB 16
LIKELY LOSS
37% CLB
--

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Blackhawks are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Blackhawks are playing 3 games, traveling 732 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

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The Chicago Blackhawks' next game is on January 20. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 16-24-9 Blackhawks 'should have' 21 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 10 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 8-10-6 home record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 5 in a row they have a 34.5% chance of seeing that extend to 7 straight. Blackhawks fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #15 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Blackhawks played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 38.6% of the time (#28 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 12/18.

Their average goal differential is -0.76 which ranks #31 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #26 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #31 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -0.83 which ranks them #25 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 49 Games2.96 (#16)9.5% (#17)31.2 (#19)
Road3 (#11)9.8% (#10)30.7 (#19)
Home2.92 (#26)9.2% (#25)31.8 (#16)
Last 6 Games3.67 (#6)12.3% (#6)29.8 (#15)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.71 (#30)89.4% (#28)34.9 (#30)
Road3.96 (#29)88.4% (#2534.1 (#28)
Home3.46 (#30)90.3% (#23)35.7 (#30)
Last 6 Games4.5 (#31)87.8% (#28)36.8 (#31)

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Blackhawks were projected for 86.8 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/17 their projected points was up to 92.7 before dropping to 66 on 12/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 71.3%. Before the start of their 5 game losing streak they were projected for 7291.5 points. The playoffs are not likely with their 1% chance and a projected #15 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #2 Toughest

Blackhawks' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected PTSPlayoff% ChampNHL Champ
Jan 1871.31%0%0%
Oct 1792.765%2.8%0.7%
Difference-21.4-64%-2.8%-0.7%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Patrick Kane3100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #4)
Erik Gustafsson1.588% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #33)
Corey Crawford3.649% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #33)
Alex DeBrincat293% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #21)
Collin Delia1.626% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #43)
Jonathan Toews2.193% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #27)