NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Blackhawks next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)DEC 9CLOSE GAME58% MON--DEC 11LIKELY LOSS25% @WPG1153 milesDEC 12**LIKELY LOSS38% PIT1153 milesDEC 14LIKELY LOSS39% WPG--DEC 16CLOSE GAME49% SJ--DEC 18LIKELY LOSS39% NSH--DEC 20LIKELY LOSS32% @DAL1294 milesDEC 21**LIKELY LOSS39% @COL1067 milesDEC 23CLOSE GAME52% FLA--DEC 27CLOSE GAME46% MIN--
The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 19.2%. At #15 in the conference, they are fighting with the Kings for positioning. With a +0.45 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed.
The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Blackhawks are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Blackhawks are playing 9 games, traveling 6371 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Stream Chicago games with SlingTV
According to Sportsline the Chicago Blackhawks are -102 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 9-16-5 Blackhawks 'should have' 14 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 4-11-2 road record is -17% lower than expected. Their 5-5-3 home record is -13% lower. Losers of 6 in a row they have a 31.5% chance of seeing that extend to 8 straight. In simulations where the Blackhawks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 43.4% of the time (#24 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #15 winning 50%.
Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.97 which ranks #31 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #30. They are the #28 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #29 ranked team among home teams. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is -2.17.
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 30 Games||2.73 (#26)||8.6% (#27)||31.8 (#13)|
|Road||2.76 (#16)||8.9% (#17)||31.1 (#17)|
|Home||2.69 (#28)||8.2% (#30)||32.8 (#13)|
|Last 6 Games||2.83 (#19)||10.5% (#13)||27 (#27)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||3.7 (#30)||89% (#28)||33.7 (#26)|
|Road||4.12 (#28)||87.6% (#27||33.2 (#25)|
|Home||3.15 (#22)||90.8% (#20)||34.3 (#29)|
|Last 6 Games||5 (#31)||86% (#29)||35.8 (#29)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Blackhawks were projected for 86.8 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 10/17 their projected points was up to 92.7 before dropping to 73.9 on 12/8. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 73.8%. Before the start of their 6 game losing streak they were projected for 7980.6 points. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.8% chance and a projected #15 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.7% (150/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest
Blackhawks' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Patrick Kane||2.8||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #8)|
|Alex DeBrincat||2||91% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #18)|
|Corey Crawford||3.7||69% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22)|
|Jonathan Toews||2.2||92% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #28)|
|Erik Gustafsson||1.3||64% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #48)|
|Cam Ward||1.4||15% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #46)|