Capitals Have a 7% Chance of Winning It All... Can They Reverse Trend?

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Capitals are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.4% chance of winning it all. On 12/18 they had a 19.2% chance before dropping to 7% on 1/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 7.4%. They have a 40.3% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (67%). They have a 66% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 31% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 13.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest

Capitals' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected PTSPlayoff% ChampNHL Champ
Jan 18105.399.8%13.1%7.4%
Dec 18110.2100%30.9%19.2%
Difference-4.9-0.2%-17.8%-11.8%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 27-14-5 the Capitals are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 25 wins. They have 12 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 4 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 14-7-2 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 9.9% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 26.3% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. We have simulated the Capitals playing every other team on neutral ice (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.2% of the time (#4 in the league). Their peak rank was #2 in the league back on 12/29.

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.35 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #6. They are the #9 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #8 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.71 (#24 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 46 Games3.35 (#8)11.3% (#3)29.5 (#23)
Road3.35 (#6)11.5% (#2)29.2 (#22)
Home3.35 (#11)11.2% (#6)29.8 (#27)
Last 7 Games2.43 (#26)8.2% (#26)29.7 (#16)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3 (#19)90.7% (#12)32.2 (#21)
Road3.26 (#20)89.8% (#1732.1 (#18)
Home2.74 (#12)91.5% (#9)32.3 (#23)
Last 7 Games3.14 (#20)90.1% (#17)31.9 (#23)

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
68% NYI
--
JAN 20
LIKELY WIN
69% @CHI
962 miles
JAN 22
CLOSE GAME
56% SJ
--
JAN 23**
CLOSE GAME
45% @TOR
564 miles
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
58% CGY
--
FEB 3
LIKELY WIN
63% BOS
--
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
70% VAN
--
FEB 7
LIKELY WIN
65% COL
--
FEB 9
LIKELY WIN
72% FLA
--
FEB 11
LIKELY WIN
75% LA
--

The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 11.7%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Maple Leafs by one point. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Blue Jackets in the conference. With a +1.13 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Capitals are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Capitals are playing 5 games, traveling 3052 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Washington Capitals are -177 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Alex Ovechkin3.7100% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #3)
John Carlson2.7100% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #3)
Braden Holtby4.387% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #4)
Evgeny Kuznetsov3.299% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #15)
Tom Wilson2.683% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #27)
Nicklas Backstrom399% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #14)