Coyotes Playoff Chances At 12%... And Are Trending Up

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Coyotes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 20.3% on 1/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 12.5%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #6 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Coyotes' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected PTSPlayoff% ChampNHL Champ
Jan 2578.812.5%0%0%
Dec 2169.10.4%0%0%
Difference+9.7+12.1%----

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 23-23-4 the Coyotes are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 22.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 14-11-1 road record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-3-2, 55%) is better than their expected 43% win percentage. In simulations where the Coyotes played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 38.5% of the time (#29 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 1/4.

Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.22 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #21. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #15 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #25 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.14 (#16 over this stretch).

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 50 Games2.6 (#28)8.5% (#28)30.6 (#21)
Road2.5 (#24)8.7% (#20)28.8 (#23)
Home2.71 (#29)8.3% (#30)32.6 (#12)
Last 7 Games2.86 (#24)9% (#25)31.6 (#12)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.82 (#8)90.6% (#13)30.1 (#8)
Road2.85 (#7)90.4% (#1429.7 (#5)
Home2.79 (#14)90.8% (#16)30.5 (#16)
Last 7 Games3 (#11)89.1% (#19)27.4 (#7)

NEXT 2 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 2 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 2 games.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
21% @SJ
971 miles
FEB 4
LIKELY LOSS
38% @DAL
1441 miles
FEB 5**
LIKELY LOSS
31% @NSH
993 miles
FEB 7
CLOSE GAME
40% CLB
--
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
45% DAL
--
FEB 12
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LV
391 miles
FEB 14
CLOSE GAME
42% STL
--
FEB 16
LIKELY LOSS
29% TOR
--
FEB 18
LIKELY LOSS
27% @CGY
1954 miles
FEB 19**
LIKELY LOSS
39% @EDM
282 miles

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Coyotes are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Coyotes are playing 5 games, traveling 8533 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Arizona Coyotes' next game is on February 2. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Darcy Kuemper3.630% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #39)
Clayton Keller1.869% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #33)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson1.291% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #29)
Conor Garland1.626% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #54)
Alex Galchenyuk1.440% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #44)
Calvin Pickard1.22% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #62)