LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Coyotes are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 20.3% on 1/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 12.5%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #6 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest
Coyotes' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
At 23-23-4 the Coyotes are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 22.4 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 14-11-1 road record is +15% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-3-2, 55%) is better than their expected 43% win percentage. In simulations where the Coyotes played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 38.5% of the time (#29 in the league). They have moved up from #31 in the league back on 1/4.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.22 which ranks #20 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #21. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #15 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #25 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is -0.14 (#16 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 50 Games||2.6 (#28)||8.5% (#28)||30.6 (#21)|
|Road||2.5 (#24)||8.7% (#20)||28.8 (#23)|
|Home||2.71 (#29)||8.3% (#30)||32.6 (#12)|
|Last 7 Games||2.86 (#24)||9% (#25)||31.6 (#12)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.82 (#8)||90.6% (#13)||30.1 (#8)|
|Road||2.85 (#7)||90.4% (#14||29.7 (#5)|
|Home||2.79 (#14)||90.8% (#16)||30.5 (#16)|
|Last 7 Games||3 (#11)||89.1% (#19)||27.4 (#7)|
NEXT 2 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 2 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 2 games.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)FEB 2LIKELY LOSS21% @SJ971 milesFEB 4LIKELY LOSS38% @DAL1441 milesFEB 5**LIKELY LOSS31% @NSH993 milesFEB 7CLOSE GAME40% CLB--FEB 9CLOSE GAME45% DAL--FEB 12LIKELY LOSS30% @LV391 milesFEB 14CLOSE GAME42% STL--FEB 16LIKELY LOSS29% TOR--FEB 18LIKELY LOSS27% @CGY1954 milesFEB 19**LIKELY LOSS39% @EDM282 miles
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Coyotes are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Coyotes are playing 5 games, traveling 8533 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Arizona Coyotes' next game is on February 2. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Darcy Kuemper||3.6||30% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #39)|
|Clayton Keller||1.8||69% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #33)|
|Oliver Ekman-Larsson||1.2||91% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #29)|
|Conor Garland||1.6||26% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #54)|
|Alex Galchenyuk||1.4||40% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #44)|
|Calvin Pickard||1.2||2% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #62)|