Does Ferland's Latest FanDuel Projection Justify His $4.8K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Micheal Ferland is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 13.5 FD pts (#18 among wings). He is the #36 highest priced wing ($4800). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.2K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Jakub Vrana is also priced at $4800, and Ferland is a better option at this price. Sam Reinhart (12.1 FP), Nick Foligno (11.8 FP), Tomas Tatar (10 FP), Gustav Nyquist (11.6 FP), and Alex Galchenyuk (10.9 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ferland but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.5 FPs, a value reached in 19 of 39 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for wings priced at $4.0K and above is 40%.

  • 1/18 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: CAR 3.6 (#2 Most Today) vs OTT 2.9 (#9 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 13.49 Fantasy Points (#18), 0.82 points (#17), 0.42 goals (#16), 0.39 assists (#26), 2.91 shots on goal (#13), 0.4 PIM (#39 most), 0.27 blocked shots (#109)

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: There are 3 other options at $5000 (Tomas Tatar, Jonathan Drouin, Jakub Vrana) and Ferland is the best option of these 4. He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Anders Lee (3.4 FP) and Ryan Dzingel (3.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.4 FPs, a value reached in 18 of 39 games (46%). The combined 'cover percentage' for left wing priced at $4.0K and above is 39%.

Ferland is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

If you are in a league that allows for substitutions during the week Micheal Ferland is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #35 while his projection rank (rest of week 16) is #12. When compared to other left wings in week 17 these are 2 better options at lower start percentages: Alex Galchenyuk (3.9 FP) and Clayton Keller (4.5 FP). Rickard Rakell (2 FP), Tomas Tatar (2.3 FP), Jonathan Huberdeau (2.8 FP), Jason Zucker (3.4 FP), and Anders Lee (2.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ferland but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 42% of leagues he is expected to produce 2.5 fantasy points (WK 17). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #28 left wing of week 17. He is projected to be better than that (the #14 left wing).

Lower Start%M. Ferland WK 17Higher Start%
A. Galchenyuk (4 FP)4 FPR. Rakell (2 FP)
C. Keller (4 FP)#28 Left WingT. Tatar (2.3 FP)
 
 
J. Huberdeau (2.8 FP)
 
 
J. Zucker (3 FP)
 
 
A. Lee (2.6 FP)

He is projected for 3.6 fantasy points in week 17 (#14 LW) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
3.6 (#14) 
Points 
0.67 (#22) 
Goals 
0.35 (#16) 
Assists 
 
0.32 (#29)
SOG 
2.74 (#15) 
PIM 
 
0.4 (#38)
Blocks 
 
0.29 (#75)
+/- 
 
0.06 (#34)

  • Jan 22Jan 23
    1.6 FP @CGY2 FP @VAN

    Micheal Ferland last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    1/15 @NYR-2 FP, 2 FD, 0 DK15 TOI, 1 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, -2 PIM
    1/13 vs NSH6 FP, 20 FD, 5 DK11 TOI, 2 SOG, 2 PTS, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PIM
    1/11 vs BUF11 FP, 31 FD, 8 DK17 TOI, 2 SOG, 3 PTS, 1 G, 2 A, 4 PIM
    1/10 @TB0 FP, 5 FD, 2 DK14 TOI, 3 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PIM
    1/8 @NYI3 FP, 8 FD, 2 DK15 TOI, 0 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PIM

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    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Our projections run counter to general expectations. Micheal Ferland is projected to be a top tier fantasy left wing. Based on ownership percentage (59%), Micheal Ferland has a market rank of #35 among left wings. His projection based left wing rank is #27. There could be a nice opportunity to acquire him before the market realizes he is undervalued. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better left wing option available. He is projected for more FPs than Patrick Marleau who has virtually the same market rank (59% Owned) as Ferland. He is projected for 70 fantasy points in 35 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#30) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Micheal Ferland behind Svechnikov and above Marleau but the projections rank Micheal Ferland over Svechnikov.

    Lower Own%M. Ferland ROSHigher Own%
    S. Baertschi (70 FP)70 FPR. Rakell (57 FP)
    R. Dzingel (78 FP)#35 Left WingT. Tatar (51 FP)
     
     
    J. Zucker (65 FP)
     
     
    C. Kreider (69 FP)
     
     
    J. Schwartz (58 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    70 (#26) 
    Points 
    24 (#29) 
    Goals 
    12 (#24) 
    Assists 
    11 (#34) 
    SOG 
    99 (#18) 
    PIM 
     
    16 (#49)
    Blocks 
     
    11 (#103)
    +/- 
     
    1 (#58)

    He does not score as many goals as you might expect given his shots on goal projection.