Elias Pettersson Is (Not) a Must Start in Week 20?

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Elias Pettersson is someone to keep in the lineup and he is a good value this week. He has a market rank of #18 while his projection rank for week 20 is #5. When compared to other centers in week 20, Patrice Bergeron (11 FP), Jack Eichel (10 FP), Sean Monahan (7 FP), Nathan MacKinnon (10 FP), and Tyler Seguin (7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Pettersson but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 82% of leagues he is expected to produce 9.8 fantasy points (WK 20). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #18 center of week 20. He is projected to be better than that (the #5 center). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing 4 games.

He is projected for 12.61 fantasy points in week 20 (#5 C) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
12.61 (#5) 
Points 
 
1.06 (#15)
Goals 
0.52 (#8) 
Assists 
 
0.54 (#30)
SOG 
 
1.92 (#51)
PIM 
 
0.1 (#129)
Blocks 
0.91 (#13) 
+/- 
 
-0.32 (#123)

  • Based on 2/11 start percentages, Elias Pettersson is valued behind Monahan and above O'Reilly and the projections agree for this week.
  • Feb 11Feb 13Feb 14Feb 16
    3.3 FP vs SJ3.7 FP @ANA3.1 FP @LA2.5 FP @SJ

    Elias Pettersson last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    2/9 vs CGY4 FP, 21 FD, 6 DK21 TOI, 2 SOG, 2 PTS, 0 G, 2 A, 0 PIM
    2/7 @CHI5 FP, 22 FD, 6 DK18 TOI, 5 SOG, 1 PTS, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PIM
    2/5 @WAS3 FP, 17 FD, 4 DK18 TOI, 3 SOG, 1 PTS, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PIM
    2/4 @PHI0 FP, 2 FD, 0 DK16 TOI, 1 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PIM
    2/2 @COL2 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK13 TOI, 1 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PIM

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (2/11): Elias Pettersson is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 17.2 FD pts (#2 among centers). At $6700 he is expected to be the #6 center. Based on the projection, Pettersson is worth $8.1K. He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Claude Giroux (16.4 FP), Sean Couturier (16.1 FP), Evgeni Malkin (8.7 FP), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (16.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 14.3 FPs, a value reached in 23 of 45 games (51%). The combined 'cover percentage' for centers priced at $4.0K and above is 39%.

    Pettersson is in the SportsLine FanDuel optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the DraftKings optimal lineup but Bo Horvat is.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Elias Pettersson is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 4.5 DK pts (#2 among centers). At $6100 he is expected to be the #6 center. Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Pettersson is worth $6.8K. He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Claude Giroux (4.3 FP), Sean Couturier (4.4 FP), Tomas Hertl (4.1 FP), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (4.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.1 FPs, a value reached in 20 of 45 games (44%). The combined 'cover percentage' for center priced at $4.0K and above is 40%.

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    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Based on ownership percentage (98%), Elias Pettersson has a market rank of #18 among centers. Elias Pettersson's projection rank is better than their market rank. His fantasy center projection rank is #10. Even if he is highly owned, he is still undervalued and if you act quickly there is a clear buy low opportunity. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better center option available. He is projected for 86 fantasy points in 25 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #8 highest average. The market ranks Elias Pettersson behind Monahan and above O'Reilly and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    86 (#9) 
    Points 
    30 (#9) 
    Goals 
    15 (#4) 
    Assists 
    15 (#17) 
    SOG 
     
    51 (#52)
    PIM 
     
    3 (#134)
    Blocks 
     
    21 (#20)
    +/- 
    5 (#15) 

    His rank in goals is better than his SOG rank indicating a relatively high shooting %.