Erik Gustafsson's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

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REST OF SEASON VALUE

Most already consider Erik Gustafsson to be a good starting defenseman, but the projections indicate he is an elite fantasy option. As of 2/11, Erik Gustafsson is the #29 ranked defenseman based on ownership percentage (90%). He is projected to be the #16 defenseman. Even as an established quality fantasy option, if he lives up to projections he is still undervalued and there could be an opportunity to buy 'low'. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better defenseman option available. He is projected for more FPs than Oliver Ekman-Larsson who has virtually the same market rank (90% Owned) as Gustafsson. He is projected for 46 fantasy points in 25 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#18) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Erik Gustafsson behind Gostisbehere and above Ekman-Larsson but the projections rank Erik Gustafsson over Gostisbehere.

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Lower Own%E. Gustafsson ROSHigher Own%
J. Muzzin (60 FP)46 FPR. Ristolainen (44 FP)
 
#29 DefensemanD. Doughty (38 FP)
 
 
J. Spurgeon (35 FP)
 
 
R. Suter (41 FP)
 
 
J. Petry (37 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
46 (#16) 
Points 
16 (#21) 
Goals 
5 (#9) 
Assists 
 
10 (#37)
SOG 
 
42 (#82)
PIM 
 
8 (#148)
Blocks 
 
41 (#106)
+/- 
 
4 (#26)

His rank in goals is better than his SOG rank indicating a relatively high shooting %.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Erik Gustafsson is a good value this week. He has a market rank of #29 while his projection rank (week 20) is #16. When compared to other defensemen in week 20 these are 2 better options at lower start percentages: Jake Muzzin (7 FP) and Jacob Trouba (6 FP). Rasmus Ristolainen (5 FP), Tyson Barrie (5 FP), John Klingberg (5 FP), Drew Doughty (4 FP), and Jared Spurgeon (5 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Gustafsson but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 75% of leagues he is expected to produce 5.1 fantasy points (WK 20). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #29 defenseman of week 20. He is projected to be better than that (the #16 defenseman).

Lower Start%E. Gustafsson WK 20Higher Start%
J. Muzzin (7 FP)6 FPR. Ristolainen (6 FP)
J. Trouba (6 FP)#29 DefensemanT. Barrie (5 FP)
 
 
J. Klingberg (5 FP)
 
 
D. Doughty (4 FP)
 
 
J. Spurgeon (5 FP)

He is projected for 6.23 fantasy points in week 20 (#16 D) in 3 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
6.23 (#16) 
Points 
0.71 (#15) 
Goals0.24 (#2) 
 
Assists 
0.48 (#22) 
SOG 
 
1.61 (#78)
PIM 
 
0.3 (#136)
Blocks 
 
1.58 (#104)
+/- 
 
0.2 (#65)

  • Based on 2/11 start percentages, Erik Gustafsson is valued behind Gostisbehere and above Ekman-Larsson but the projections rank Erik Gustafsson over Gostisbehere in week 20.
  • Feb 12Feb 14Feb 16
    1.6 FP @BOS2.6 FP vs NJ2.1 FP vs CLB

    Erik Gustafsson last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    2/10 vs DET3 FP, 16 FD, 4 DK16 TOI, 2 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PIM
    2/7 vs VAN-2 FP, 6 FD, 2 DK21 TOI, 2 SOG, 0 PTS, 0 G, 0 A, -2 PIM
    2/5 @EDM7 FP, 22 FD, 6 DK21 TOI, 4 SOG, 1 PTS, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PIM
    2/2 @MIN12 FP, 31 FD, 8 DK22 TOI, 4 SOG, 2 PTS, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PIM
    2/1 @BUF4 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK20 TOI, 0 SOG, 1 PTS, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PIM

    Gustafsson is not in the 2/11 DFS player pool, but one player who is in the Sportsline FanDuel optimal lineup is Ivan Provorov, and Alec Martinez is in the DraftKings optimal lineup.

    LAST DAILY FANTASY PERFORMANCE 2/10 VS DET

    • 16 TOI, 0 G, 1 A, 2 SOG, 3 BS
    • FanDuel: $5100, 16 FPs (+$2596 value, +5.4 FPs)
    • DraftKings: $5300, 4.5 FPs (+$1916 value, +1.2 FPs)