NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 4 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 games where they are favored by >60% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)JAN 18CLOSE GAME58% OTT--JAN 20CLOSE GAME43% @EDM3335 milesJAN 22LIKELY LOSS30% @CGY3276 milesJAN 23**CLOSE GAME43% @VAN675 milesFEB 1CLOSE GAME45% LV--FEB 3LIKELY LOSS37% CGY--FEB 5LIKELY LOSS23% @PIT528 milesFEB 7CLOSE GAME53% @BUF787 milesFEB 8**CLOSE GAME49% @NYR469 milesFEB 10CLOSE GAME43% @NJ678 miles
The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 3.8%. They have a +1.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Rangers by 2 points. With a +1.49 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Hurricanes are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hurricanes are playing 5 games, traveling 20962 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Carolina Hurricanes are -230 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 22-19-5 Hurricanes 'should have' 24 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 41% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 54% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-4-0 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.5 wins. In simulations where the Hurricanes played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 44.4% of the time (#23 in the league). They have moved up from #27 in the league back on 12/23.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.22 which ranks #18 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #15. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #17 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #22 in road games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.29 (#13 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 46 Games||2.7 (#27)||7.5% (#31)||35.9 (#1)|
|Road||2.36 (#26)||6.7% (#30)||35.1 (#2)|
|Home||3 (#23)||8.2% (#31)||36.6 (#1)|
|Last 7 Games||3.71 (#5)||12.3% (#5)||30.1 (#13)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.91 (#13)||89.7% (#23)||28.2 (#1)|
|Road||3.18 (#19)||89.1% (#22||29.2 (#3)|
|Home||2.67 (#9)||90.2% (#24)||27.3 (#4)|
|Last 7 Games||3.43 (#25)||88% (#26)||28.6 (#10)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Hurricanes are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.1% chance of making the playoffs. On 12/31 they had a 0.9% chance before increasing to 26.3% on 1/14. Their current chances are at 17.2%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest
Hurricanes' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Sebastian Aho||3.1||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #9)|
|Teuvo Teravainen||2.4||77% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #32)|
|Petr Mrazek||3.4||20% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #48)|
|Micheal Ferland||1.9||59% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #35)|
|Justin Williams||1.8||31% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #50)|
|Dougie Hamilton||1.3||80% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #38)|