Holtby FanDuel Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Holtby is overrated on FanDuel with a projected 17.2 FD pts (#7 among goalies). At $8600 he is expected to be the #3 goalie. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $8.6K. Carey Price is also priced at $8600, and Holtby is a better option at this price. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Sergei Bobrovsky (21.4 FP), Anders Nilsson (18.6 FP), Jacob Markstrom (21 FP), Garret Sparks (17.6 FP), and David Rittich (18.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 17.2 FPs, a value reached in 17 of 44 games (39%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalies priced at $4.0K and above is 31%.

  • 1/18 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: WAS 3.5 (#3 Most Today) vs NYI 3 (#8 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 17.21 Fantasy Points (#7), 0.66 wins (#4), 0.3 losses (#11 most), 24 saves (#14), 2.6 goals allowed (#10 most), 90.2 save percentage (#7)

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 4.3 DraftKings points Holtby is fairly ranked. At $7900 he is expected to be the #7 goalie. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $8.2K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 4 other options at $7900 (Sergei Bobrovsky, Jacob Markstrom, Pheonix Copley, Casey DeSmith) and Holtby is ranked #3 among the 5. Anders Nilsson (4.7 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.1 FPs, a value reached in 17 of 44 games (39%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalie priced at $4.0K and above is 30%.

Holtby is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among goalies for the rest of week 16 is #2, which is better than his market rank of #4. When compared to other goalies in week 17 these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Semyon Varlamov (10.4 FP), Jacob Markstrom (6.6 FP), Jordan Binnington (11.7 FP), David Rittich (7 FP), and Mikko Koskinen (5.9 FP). Starting in 72% of leagues he is expected to produce 9.7 fantasy points (WK 17). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #5 goalie of the week, but he is projected to be the #9 goalie. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 3.9 short of expectations. In addition to being projected for fewer FP than normal, he is only playing in 1 games.

He is projected for 5.78 fantasy points in week 17 (#9 G) in 1 1 game.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
5.78 (#9) 
Wins 
 
0.02 (#24)
Losses0.02 (#3) 
 
Saves 
 
1.15 (#31)
Goals Allowed 
 
0.14 (#18)
Save% 
 
89.1 (#38)

  • Based on 1/18 start percentages, Braden Holtby is valued behind Fleury and above Andersen but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 17.
  • Jan 22Jan 23
    5.6 FP vs SJ0.2 FP @TOR

    Braden Holtby last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

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    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    1/3 @STL2 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK37 SV, 5 GA, Win
    1/3 @STL2 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK37 SV, 5 GA, Win
    1/3 @STL2 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK37 SV, 5 GA, Win
    1/3 @STL2 FP, 10 FD, 2 DK37 SV, 5 GA, Win

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    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Both the market and projections have the exact same expectations for Braden Holtby. Based on ownership percentage (87%), Braden Holtby has a market rank of #4 among goalies. Projections also rank him #4. He is projected for 156 fantasy points in 28 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#12) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Braden Holtby behind Fleury and above Andersen but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    156 (#4) 
    Wins16 (#3) 
     
    Losses 
     
    10 (#37)
    Saves 
     
    749 (#15)
    Goals Allowed 
     
    78 (#47)
    Save% 
     
    90.6 (#15)

    His overall ranking is boosted by getting a lot of wins playing on a good team. His save percentage rank is not as high as his overall.