It Was a Solid Fantasy Season for Reilly Smith

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Reilly Smith is not a fantasy star but was worth starting most weeks. He is the #173 ranked fantasy skater this season and the #53 wing. His value would have been slightly higher if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he is the #50 wing. He trended up as the season went on. In his first 24 games he averaged 1.1 FPs. He improved to 1.9 in the next 26 games. In his final stretch of games he improved to 2.8 per game. His standard deviation divided by his average is 1.51 which is close to the league ratio. He averaged 2 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 12 fantasy points.

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

His season average dropped measurably from last season. His fantasy average dropped by 29 percent.

SEASON TREND'18-19'17-18'16-17
Fantasy Points14619088
FP Average22.81.1
Regular Season GP756780
PTS0.70.90.5
GOALS0.30.30.2
ASSISTS0.50.60.3
SOG2.52.42.0
BS0.50.40.4

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 6.1 fantasy points per week and had 10 weeks where he came up short (below 80% of average) and had 9 weeks where he was +20% above average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL6.1 FP per Week910
Week 11 (2 games 0.5 per game)-5.1
Week 26 (4 games 1.5 per game)
Week 39 (2 games 4.5 per game)+2.9
Week 4-4 (3 games -1.3 per game)-10.1
Week 53 (3 games 1 per game)-3.1
Week 6-1 (4 games -0.2 per game)-7.1
Week 78.5 (3 games 2.8 per game)+2.4
Week 811 (4 games 2.8 per game)+4.9
Week 93 (3 games 1 per game)-3.1
Week 1014 (4 games 3.5 per game)+7.9
Week 116.5 (3 games 2.2 per game)
Week 125 (4 games 1.2 per game)
Week 135 (3 games 1.7 per game)
Week 140 (3 games 0 per game)-6.1
Week 18-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-7.6
Week 1912 (3 games 4 per game)+5.9
Week 203 (3 games 1 per game)-3.1
Week 218.5 (3 games 2.8 per game)+2.4
Week 2214 (4 games 3.5 per game)+7.9
Week 239 (3 games 3 per game)+2.9
Week 243.5 (2 games 1.8 per game)-2.6
Week 2526 (3 games 8.7 per game)+19.9
Week 266 (4 games 1.5 per game)
Week 270 (2 games 0 per game)-6.1

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 11.9 FD points and 3.2 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 5.5 and 20.8 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All11.9 ($5.5K)23 G, 27 B3.2 ($5.2K)24 G, 30 B
4/4 ARI0 ($5.9K)-11.90 ($5.8K)-3.2
4/1 EDM3.2 ($6.3K)-8.71 ($6K)-2.2
3/30 @SJ11.2 ($6.6K)--3 ($6.2K)--
3/29 MIN1.6 ($6.6K)-10.30.5 ($6.2K)-2.7
3/27 @COL18.4 ($6.4K)+6.55 ($5.9K)+1.8
3/25 @STL1.6 ($6.4K)-10.30.5 ($5.7K)-2.7
3/23 DET15.2 ($6.4K)+3.34 ($5.3K)+0.8
3/21 WPG28.8 ($6.1K)+16.97.5 ($5.1K)+4.3
3/18 @SJ44.5 ($5.7K)+32.611.5 ($5K)+8.3
3/17 EDM20.8 ($5.7K)+8.95.5 ($5.3K)+2.3
3/15 @DAL6.4 ($6.1K)-5.52 ($5.3K)-1.2
3/10 @CGY18.4 ($5.9K)+6.55 ($5.4K)+1.8
3/9 @VAN12.8 ($5.9K)--3.5 ($5.5K)--
3/6 CGY11.2 ($5.8K)--3 ($5.3K)--
3/3 VAN21.6--6--
3/1 @ANA0 ($5.8K)-11.90 ($5.1K)-3.2
2/28 FLA28.8 ($5.8K)+16.97.5 ($5K)+4.3
2/26 DAL14.4 ($5.8K)+2.54 ($5.1K)+0.8
2/22 WPG12.8 ($5.7K)--3.5 ($5K)--
2/20 BOS23.2 ($5.4K)+11.36 ($4.6K)+2.8
2/18 @COL1.6 ($5.4K)-10.30.5 ($4.8K)-2.7
2/16 NSH16.5 ($5.3K)+4.64.5 ($4.3K)+1.3
2/14 TOR16 ($5.2K)+4.14.5 ($4.5K)+1.3
2/12 ARI8 ($5.2K)-3.92.5 ($4.3K)-0.7
2/9 CLB19.2 ($5.2K)+7.35 ($4.2K)+1.8
2/7 @DET12.8 ($5.3K)--3.5 ($4.6K)--
2/5 @TB4.8 ($5.3K)-7.11.5 ($4.7K)-1.7
2/2 @FLA3.2 ($5.3K)-8.71 ($5K)-2.2
2/1 @CAR4.8 ($5.3K)-7.11.5 ($5.1K)-1.7
1/6 NJ1.6--0.5--
1/4 @ANA6.4 ($5.4K)-5.52 ($5.4K)-1.2
1/1 LA6.4 ($5.4K)-5.52 ($5.7K)-1.2
12/30 @ARI15.2--4--
12/29 @LA1.6--0.5--
12/27 COL14.4 ($5.4K)+2.54.5 ($4.8K)+1.3
12/23 LA16.8 ($5.3K)+4.94.5 ($5.6K)+1.3
12/22 MON0--0--
12/20 NYI9.6 ($5.3K)--2.5 ($5.8K)-0.7
12/17 @CLB1.6 ($5.3K)-10.30.5 ($5.8K)-2.7
12/16 @NYR18.9--5--
12/14 @NJ8.5 ($5.2K)-3.42 ($5.1K)-1.2
12/12 @NYI10.1 ($5.1K)--2.5 ($5.6K)-0.7
12/9 DAL15.7 ($5K)+3.84 ($5.8K)+0.8
12/8 @LA3.2--1--
12/6 CHI38.1 ($5K)+26.210 ($5.1K)+6.8
12/4 WAS3.2 ($4.9K)-8.71 ($4.5K)-2.2
12/1 @EDM11.2 ($4.9K)--3.5 ($4.8K)--
11/29 @VAN18.1 ($4.9K)+6.24.5 ($5.2K)+1.3
11/27 @CHI4.8 ($4.7K)-7.11.5 ($5K)-1.7
11/24 SJ26.1 ($4.9K)+14.27 ($4.3K)+3.8
11/23 CGY11.7--3--
11/21 @ARI11.2 ($4.9K)--3 ($5K)--
11/19 @CGY13.3 ($4.9K)--3.5 ($4.5K)--
11/18 @EDM33.3 ($4.9K)+21.48.5 ($5.1K)+5.3
11/16 STL3.2 ($5.1K)-8.71 ($5.2K)-2.2
11/14 ANA9.6 ($5.1K)--3 ($4.9K)--
11/11 @BOS4.8 ($5.1K)-7.11.5 ($4.6K)-1.7
11/10 @MON9.6 ($5.1K)--2.5 ($4.6K)-0.7
11/8 @OTT4.8 ($5.1K)-7.11.5 ($4.8K)-1.7
11/6 @TOR4.8 ($5.3K)-7.11.5 ($4.7K)-1.7
11/3 CAR3.2 ($5.4K)-8.71 ($4.6K)-2.2
11/1 @STL0 ($5.4K)-11.90 ($5K)-3.2
10/30 @NSH17.3 ($5.4K)+5.44.5 ($5.2K)+1.3
10/28 OTT12.8 ($5.5K)--4 ($5.5K)+0.8
10/26 TB8--2.5--
10/24 VAN4.8 ($5.6K)-7.11.5 ($5.4K)-1.7
10/20 ANA12.8 ($5.6K)--3.5 ($5.2K)--
10/16 BUF19.7 ($5.6K)+7.85 ($5.4K)+1.8
10/13 @PHI1.6--0.5--
10/11 @PIT15.2 ($6.2K)+3.34 ($4.4K)+0.8
10/10 @WAS16.8 ($6.2K)+4.94.5 ($5.5K)+1.3
10/8 @BUF3.2 ($6.2K)-8.71 ($5.7K)-2.2
10/6 @MIN4.8 ($6.2K)-7.11.5 ($5.6K)-1.7
10/4 PHI4.8 ($6.4K)-7.11.5 ($5.9K)-1.7