NEXT 2 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Kings next 2 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 2 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)JAN 19LIKELY LOSS32% @COL1338 milesJAN 21CLOSE GAME42% STL--FEB 2CLOSE GAME40% @NYI3945 milesFEB 4LIKELY LOSS40% @NYR3943 milesFEB 5**LIKELY LOSS33% @NJ15 milesFEB 7LIKELY LOSS37% @PHI3850 milesFEB 9LIKELY LOSS22% @BOS4176 milesFEB 11LIKELY LOSS25% @WAS3700 milesFEB 14CLOSE GAME48% VAN--FEB 16LIKELY LOSS39% BOS--
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Kings are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Kings are playing 2 games, traveling 1338 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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Sportsline has a free pick on the Los Angeles Kings' next game. They are +160 underdogs and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 19-25-4 Kings 'should have' 22 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have won 35% of their road games and were expected to win 40%. At home they have a 44% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 51%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5-1, 45%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#17) in power rank, and they have managed to be even worse. In simulations where the Kings played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 37.8% of the time (#31 in the league). Their peak rank was #17 in the league back on 6/11.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average goal differential is -0.65 which ranks #28 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #29. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #25 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #29 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 6 games is +0.5 (#7 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 48 Games||2.25 (#31)||8% (#30)||28.2 (#29)|
|Road||1.87 (#31)||6.6% (#31)||28.2 (#24)|
|Home||2.6 (#30)||9.2% (#24)||28.2 (#30)|
|Last 6 Games||2.5 (#23)||9.6% (#16)||26.2 (#29)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.9 (#12)||90.8% (#11)||31.6 (#19)|
|Road||2.74 (#4)||91.7% (#4||33 (#24)|
|Home||3.04 (#23)||90% (#27)||30.3 (#14)|
|Last 6 Games||2 (#1)||93.5% (#2)||30.7 (#19)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Kings were projected for 91 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 6/25 their projected points was up to 89.3 before dropping to 64 on 12/18. From the start of the season to now their projected points is down significantly to 72.7. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.5% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.7% (150/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest
Kings' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Jonathan Quick||3.7||75% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #16)|
|Drew Doughty||1.4||97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #19)|
|Anze Kopitar||2.1||90% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #31)|
|Dustin Brown||1.8||64% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #37)|
|Ilya Kovalchuk||1.6||55% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #37)|
|Jeff Carter||1.5||46% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #45)|