DAILY FANTASY VALUE
Projected for 5.6 DraftKings pts Matt Murray is the #1 ranked goalie. At $8100 he is expected to be the #3 goalie. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Murray is worth $10.7K. Mike Smith is also priced at $8100, and Murray is a better option at this price. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.2 FPs, a value reached in 11 of 36 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalie priced at $4.0K and above is 30%.
- 1/18 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: PIT 3.2 (#6 Most Today) @ ARI 2.8 (#10 Most)
- PROJECTION (POS RANK): 5.59 Fantasy Points (#1), 0.73 wins (#1), 0.23 losses (#14 most), 27.94 saves (#8), 2.35 goals allowed (#14 most), 92.2 save percentage (#1)
FANDUEL VALUE: Based on a projected 22.4 FanDuel points, Murray is fairly ranked. He is the #1 highest priced goalie ($8800). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $11.2K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 17.6 FPs, a value reached in 11 of 36 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for goalies priced at $4.0K and above is 31%.
Murray is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.
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REST OF SEASON VALUE
His latest projection based rank among goalies is #12. Ranking by ownership percentage (86%), Matt Murray is expected to be the #10 goalie for the rest of the season. The market is higher on Matt Murray than the projections are so we consider him to be slightly overvalued. There are other goalies with virtually the same market rank (Sergei Bobrovsky, Devan Dubnyk, John Gibson 86% Owned) and Murray ranks #2 out of 4. He is projected for 143 fantasy points in 23 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #3 highest average. The market ranks Matt Murray behind Gibson and above Bobrovsky but the projections rank these players in reverse order.
|Lower Own%||M. Murray ROS||Higher Own%|
|T. Rask (153 FP)||143 FP||D. Dubnyk (130 FP)|
|S. Bobrovsky (148 FP)||#10 Goalie||J. Gibson (125 FP)|
|S. Varlamov (152 FP)|| || |
|D. Rittich (146 FP)|| || |
|Projected Stat||Relative Strength||Overall||Relative Weakness|
|Fantasy Points|| ||143 (#12)|| |
|Wins|| ||15 (#5)|| |
|Losses|| || ||7 (#32)|
|Saves|| || ||650 (#30)|
|Goals Allowed|| || ||65 (#34)|
|Save%|| ||90.9 (#5)|| |