NBA Picks: Value On Winnipeg Jets -227 at Home vs Detroit Red Wings

Friday, January 11, 2019

Buffalo Sabres vs Carolina Hurricanes

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Hurricanes to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is CAR 2.8 and BUF 2.4, and Carolina is winning 59% of simulations. The Hurricanes are -148 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Hurricanes have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-0 record and they have the large edge in profit at +377 to -600 units. In these games the Hurricanes averaged 3.7 goals per game and the Sabres 1.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Sabres+1252.62.443%41%1.8 (0 Wins)
Carolina Hurricanes-1482.92.857%59%3.7 (6 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Detroit Red Wings vs Winnipeg Jets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jets over the Red Wings. The projected score is WPG 3.9 and DET 2.3, and Winnipeg is winning 77% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jets is -227 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Red Wings based on how the moneyline is moving. In their last 5 matchups the Jets are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +63 to -55 units. The average moneyline for the Red Wings was +80 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Red Wings averaged 3.2 and the Jets 3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+1852.92.334%23%3.2 (2 Wins)
Winnipeg Jets-2273.63.966%77%3.0 (3 Wins)

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Florida Panthers vs Calgary Flames

The odds and our simulations favor the Flames over the Panthers. The projected score is CGY 3.9 and FLA 3.1, and Calgary is winning 64% of simulations. The moneyline for the Flames is -227 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Flames are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +238 to -180 units. The average moneyline for the Panthers was -19 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Flames averaged 4 goals per game and the Panthers 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Florida Panthers+1852.93.134%36%3.0 (1 Win)
Calgary Flames-2273.63.966%64%4.0 (3 Wins)

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Anaheim Ducks

The Penguins are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Penguins 3.9 and Ducks 2.6, and Pittsburgh is winning 73% of simulations. At -147 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Penguins a 60 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Ducks are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +193 to -162 units. The average moneyline for the Penguins was -108 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Ducks averaged 3.2 goals per game and the Penguins 2.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins-1473.23.957%73%2.6 (2 Wins)
Anaheim Ducks+1252.82.643%27%3.2 (3 Wins)

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