NHL Computer Favors Toronto Maple Leafs on Road at Edmonton Oilers

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Buffalo Sabres vs Colorado Avalanche

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Avalanche over the Sabres. The projected score is COL 3.3 and BUF 2.5, and Colorado is winning 66% of the sims. At -172 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Avalanche a 63 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Avalanche are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +76 to -126 units. The average moneyline for the Avalanche was -23 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Avalanche averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Sabres 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Sabres+1503.02.539%34%2.8 (2 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche-1723.53.361%66%3.6 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Sharks to win the game. The projected score is SJ 3.4 and STL 2.8, with San Jose winning 61% of the time. The Sharks are -141 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 5 matchups the Sharks are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +62 to -133 units. The average moneyline for the Blues was +17 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Sharks averaged 2.2 goals per game and the Blues 1.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St. Louis Blues+1202.92.844%39%1.8 (2 Wins)
San Jose Sharks-1413.13.456%61%2.2 (3 Wins)

Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Bruins over the Senators. The projected score is BOS 3.7 and OTT 2.6, with Boston winning 69% of the time. The Bruins are -455 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 82 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bruins going 7-0. They have the large edge in units at +356 to -700 units. In these games the Bruins averaged 4.3 goals per game and the Senators 1.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Ottawa Senators+3502.22.621%31%1.4 (0 Wins)
Boston Bruins-4553.83.779%69%4.3 (7 Wins)

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Columbus Blue Jackets

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Penguins as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Penguins 3.6 and Blue Jackets 3.1, with Pittsburgh being given a 60% chance of winning. The Blue Jackets are -130 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Penguins based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Penguins going 7-0. They have the large edge in units at +619 to -700. The average moneyline for the Penguins was -64 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Penguins averaged 4.3 and the Blue Jackets 2.3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins+1103.23.646%60%4.3 (7 Wins)
Columbus Blue Jackets-1303.33.154%40%2.3 (0 Wins)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Maple Leafs over the Oilers despite being on the road. The projected score is Maple Leafs 3.7 and Oilers 2.7, with Toronto being given a 66% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -152 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Maple Leafs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record and they have the large edge in profit at +396 to -500 units. The average moneyline for the Oilers was +39 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Maple Leafs averaged 4 and the Oilers 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Maple Leafs-1523.43.758%66%4.0 (5 Wins)
Edmonton Oilers+1303.12.742%34%2.0 (0 Wins)

Philadelphia Flyers vs New York Islanders

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Flyers as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Flyers 2.9 and Islanders 2.8, and Philadelphia is winning 51% of simulations. The Islanders are -147 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Islanders are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. They have the large edge in units at +260 to -181 units. The average moneyline for the Islanders was +32 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Islanders averaged 4.2 goals per game and the Flyers 3.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Flyers+1252.62.943%51%3.7 (2 Wins)
New York Islanders-1472.92.857%49%4.2 (4 Wins)

New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Rangers. The projected score is NYR 2.8 and NJ 2.7, and New York is winning 53% of simulations. The Rangers are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Rangers have the recent head-to-head edge going 6-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +39 to -195 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was -91 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Rangers averaged 3.5 goals per game and the Devils 2.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1402.82.740%47%2.7 (4 Wins)
New York Rangers-1613.22.860%53%3.5 (6 Wins)

Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Lightning to win the game. The projected score is TB 3.9 and DET 2.4, and Tampa Bay is winning 75% of simulations. The Lightning are -500 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 83 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Lightning have been dominating this matchup recently with a 11-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +681 to -1100 units. In these games the Lightning averaged 4.1 goals per game and the Red Wings 2.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+3752.42.420%25%2.3 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Lightning-5004.13.980%75%4.1 (11 Wins)

Los Angeles Kings vs Arizona Coyotes

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Coyotes to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is ARI 2.7 and LA 2.3, and Arizona is winning 59% of the sims. The moneyline for the Coyotes is -175 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Kings get the large edge in profit at +-139 to 14 units. The Coyotes were +138 underdogs on average. In these games, the Kings averaged 3 and the Coyotes 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+1552.22.338%41%3.0 (3 Wins)
Arizona Coyotes-1752.82.762%59%2.0 (3 Wins)

Chicago Blackhawks vs Dallas Stars

The odds and our simulations favor the Stars over the Blackhawks, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is DAL 3.1 and CHI 2.8, with Dallas winning 57% of the time. The moneyline for the Stars is -167 which translates to 63 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Stars going 5-1. They have the large edge in units at +349 to -329 units. The average moneyline for the Stars was -96 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Stars averaged 3.5 goals per game and the Blackhawks 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o7VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Blackhawks+1453.22.839%43%2.5 (1 Win)
Dallas Stars-1673.83.161%57%3.5 (5 Wins)

Carolina Hurricanes vs Nashville Predators

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Predators to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is NSH 3.1 and CAR 2.9, and Nashville is winning 54% of the sims. At -152 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Predators a 60 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Hurricanes have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record and they have the large edge in profit at +585 to -500 units. The average moneyline for the Predators was -93 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Hurricanes averaged 4.2 and the Predators 2.2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Hurricanes+1372.62.941%46%4.2 (5 Wins)
Nashville Predators-1522.93.159%54%2.2 (0 Wins)

Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Golden Knights. The projected score is Golden Knights 2.9 and Canucks 2.8, and Vegas is winning 52% of simulations. The Golden Knights are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Golden Knights going 6-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +273 to -360 units. The Golden Knights were -188 favorites on average. In these games, the Golden Knights averaged 4.1 and the Canucks 2.3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vegas Golden Knights-1613.02.960%52%4.1 (6 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks+1402.52.840%48%2.3 (1 Win)