NHL Futures: At 20-To-1 Both Capitals and Sharks are Both Great Bets to Win the Stanley Cup

There is a very large 17.4% gap between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs. The Toronto Maple Leafs at 17.7% trails the Tampa Bay Lightning at 35.1%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Lightning chances are down from 37.5 percent. A difference of 3.31 points may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #8 best record and the #9 best record in the West is considerable. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN EAST ODDSWIN EAST SIM
Tampa Bay Lightning110.557.4%98.9%3/1 (25%)35.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs103.820.9%93.6%9/2 (18.2%)17.7%
Washington Capitals101.141.7%88.7%9/1 (10%)14.2%
Boston Bruins103.017.8%92.8%11/2 (15.4%)11.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins98.428.3%81.6%12/1 (7.7%)8.1%
Carolina Hurricanes94.814.9%67.9%15/1 (6.2%)4.8%
Montreal Canadiens92.42.0%56.2%30/1 (3.2%)2.8%
Florida Panthers91.61.7%53.3%9/1 (10%)2.3%
Columbus Blue Jackets88.33.9%37.5%50/1 (2%)1.5%
New York Islanders90.05.8%45.2%20/1 (4.8%)1.3%
Philadelphia Flyers86.12.7%27.5%20/1 (4.8%)0.8%
New York Rangers84.31.6%21.3%15/1 (6.2%)0.1%
New Jersey Devils83.91.2%19.2%12/1 (7.7%)--
Detroit Red Wings78.50.0%6.5%100/1 (1%)--
Buffalo Sabres79.40.1%8.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Ottawa Senators72.90.0%1.6%250/1 (0.4%)--

There is a small 0.9% gap between West leaders. The Vegas Golden Knights lead with a 17 percent chance of winning the West and the Calgary Flames are at 16.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Flames chances are down from 17.7 percent. While 4.44 may not seem like a lot of points, that amount of difference between the team with the #8 best record and the #9 best record is pretty large. This is a wide open conference with 8 teams having at least a four percent chance of winning.

WEST FUTURES PROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN WEST ODDSWIN WEST SIM
Vegas Golden Knights99.931.8%91.2%3/1 (25%)17.0%
Calgary Flames100.032.3%91.0%9/1 (10%)16.1%
San Jose Sharks100.032.4%90.7%12/1 (7.7%)15.9%
Colorado Avalanche98.024.4%84.1%5/1 (16.7%)14.6%
Winnipeg Jets98.224.3%84.9%12/1 (7.7%)12.6%
St. Louis Blues97.622.8%83.0%7/1 (12.5%)10.7%
Nashville Predators94.513.0%71.8%9/1 (10%)5.4%
Dallas Stars93.410.5%67.6%7/1 (12.5%)4.1%
Chicago Blackhawks88.94.4%45.8%20/1 (4.8%)1.7%
Vancouver Canucks83.41.2%24.2%20/1 (4.8%)0.6%
Arizona Coyotes84.11.3%26.5%15/1 (6.2%)0.6%
Minnesota Wild80.90.6%14.2%40/1 (2.4%)0.4%
Edmonton Oilers81.90.9%18.6%25/1 (3.8%)0.3%
Anaheim Ducks76.00.1%6.0%100/1 (1%)--
Los Angeles Kings66.80.0%0.5%100/1 (1%)--

There may be 16 playoff teams but there are only 12 true Stanley Cup contenders (at least a 2% chance). At #2, the Maple Leafs have a 11 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, which is 13 percentage points behind the Lightning. At the bottom of the contenders list, 2.4 percentage points separate the Blues from the Hurricanes.

CHAMP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Tampa Bay Lightning6/114.3%24.1%--
Toronto Maple Leafs10/19.1%10.7%--
Vegas Golden Knights7/112.5%7.6%DOWN
Washington Capitals20/14.8%7.5%DOWN
Calgary Flames20/14.8%7.5%--
San Jose Sharks25/13.8%7.2%DOWN
Colorado Avalanche12/17.7%6.5%--
Boston Bruins12/17.7%6.4%--
Winnipeg Jets25/13.8%5.3%--
St. Louis Blues16/15.9%4.4%UP
Pittsburgh Penguins25/13.8%3.8%--
Carolina Hurricanes30/13.2%2.1%UP
Nashville Predators20/14.8%1.7%DOWN
Dallas Stars16/15.9%1.1%UP
Montreal Canadiens60/11.6%1.1%UP