NHL Futures: Capitals Sitting at #3

There is a large 7.8% gap between the Lightning and the Bruins. The Boston Bruins at 22.3% trails the Tampa Bay Lightning at 30.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Bruins chances are down from 90.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 2.92 points separate the 3 teams projected for the #7, #8 and #9 best West record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

Visit Sportsline to get the latest game forecasts, picks against the moneyline, puck line, and totals by the computer and top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Tampa Bay Lightning108.12.7%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)30.1%
Boston Bruins116.997.3%100.0%11/4 (26.7%)22.3%
Washington Capitals107.564.8%99.9%5/1 (16.7%)17.4%
Philadelphia Flyers104.829.2%99.8%5/1 (16.7%)12.2%
Pittsburgh Penguins101.05.3%93.9%8/1 (11.1%)4.0%
New York Rangers93.70.0%33.5%30/1 (3.2%)3.9%
Carolina Hurricanes97.50.5%76.6%30/1 (3.2%)3.2%
Toronto Maple Leafs95.30.0%65.2%10/1 (9.1%)3.1%
Florida Panthers94.60.0%53.4%40/1 (2.4%)2.9%
New York Islanders95.70.1%55.6%20/1 (4.8%)0.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets92.70.0%22.1%40/1 (2.4%)0.2%
Montreal Canadiens83.00.0%0.0%500/1 (0.2%)--
Buffalo Sabres80.60.0%0.0%----
New Jersey Devils78.90.0%0.0%----
Ottawa Senators70.20.0%0.0%----
Detroit Red Wings44.00.0%0.0%----

There is a small 0.9% gap between West leaders. The Colorado Avalanche lead with a 21.5 percent chance of winning the West and the St. Louis Blues are at 20.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Blues chances are down from 64.2 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Wild average the #7 most wins and the Jets average the #9 most so the difference (0.07 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the West.

Colorado Avalanche106.836.2%100.0%4/1 (20%)21.5%
St. Louis Blues107.963.7%100.0%4/1 (20%)20.6%
Edmonton Oilers96.216.5%94.1%10/1 (9.1%)13.6%
Vegas Golden Knights99.573.0%99.4%11/4 (26.7%)13.4%
Vancouver Canucks93.98.4%81.2%15/1 (6.2%)12.9%
Nashville Predators92.30.0%61.3%12/1 (7.7%)5.0%
Minnesota Wild91.60.0%51.9%30/1 (3.2%)4.7%
Calgary Flames91.82.1%58.7%15/1 (6.2%)3.8%
Winnipeg Jets91.50.0%51.8%25/1 (3.8%)2.1%
Dallas Stars96.30.1%91.7%8/1 (11.1%)2.0%
Arizona Coyotes86.90.0%8.9%25/1 (3.8%)0.3%
Chicago Blackhawks84.20.0%1.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Anaheim Ducks77.10.0%0.0%----
Los Angeles Kings75.00.0%0.0%----
San Jose Sharks73.90.0%0.0%----

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup, but only 11 really do with at least a two percent chance. At the top, the Lightning have a 7 percentage point lead over the Bruins. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 2.2 percentage points.

Tampa Bay Lightning7/112.5%22.6%--
Boston Bruins6/114.3%15.6%DOWN
Washington Capitals10/19.1%11.1%DOWN
Colorado Avalanche10/19.1%8.5%--
St. Louis Blues10/19.1%8.4%--
Philadelphia Flyers10/19.1%6.8%--
Edmonton Oilers20/14.8%4.4%--
Vegas Golden Knights6/114.3%4.3%DOWN
Vancouver Canucks30/13.2%4.2%DOWN
New York Rangers60/11.6%2.3%DOWN
Pittsburgh Penguins16/15.9%2.0%DOWN
Florida Panthers80/11.2%1.7%DOWN
Nashville Predators25/13.8%1.5%DOWN
Carolina Hurricanes60/11.6%1.5%DOWN
Toronto Maple Leafs20/14.8%1.5%DOWN
Minnesota Wild60/11.6%1.4%DOWN