There is a huge 20.3% gap between East leaders. The Tampa Bay Lightning lead with a 39.7 percent chance of winning the East and the Washington Capitals are at 19.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Capitals chances are down from 29.4 percent. There is a 10.49 difference in projected points between the #8 best record and the #9 best record in the West. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.
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| EAST FUTURES | PROJ PTS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN EAST ODDS | WIN EAST SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 109.7 | 20.2% | 98.6% | 7/2 (22.2%) | 39.7% |
| Washington Capitals | 115.1 | 86.3% | 99.8% | 6/1 (14.3%) | 19.3% |
| Boston Bruins | 117.7 | 77.1% | 99.9% | 4/1 (20%) | 18.4% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 99.2 | 3.5% | 77.0% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 7.0% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 96.7 | 0.6% | 64.3% | 8/1 (11.1%) | 4.3% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 98.6 | 3.0% | 74.8% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 4.2% |
| Florida Panthers | 100.4 | 2.0% | 82.7% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 4.0% |
| New York Islanders | 100.4 | 5.6% | 81.2% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 1.8% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 89.9 | 0.1% | 25.8% | 30/1 (3.2%) | 0.5% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 95.3 | 1.3% | 56.5% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 0.4% |
| New York Rangers | 90.9 | 0.2% | 30.9% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.4% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 82.2 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 100/1 (1%) | -- |
| Buffalo Sabres | 82.6 | 0.0% | 4.4% | 40/1 (2.4%) | -- |
| New Jersey Devils | 69.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50/1 (2%) | -- |
| Ottawa Senators | 73.2 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
| Detroit Red Wings | 55.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 250/1 (0.4%) | -- |
The percentage difference at the top of the West is large at 6%. The San Jose Sharks lead with a 19.8 percent chance of winning the West and the Nashville Predators are at 13.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Predators chances are down from 19.9 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Flames average the #8 most points and the Blackhawks average the #9 so the difference (1.61 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is parity in the conference. There are 8 teams winning the West in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.
| WEST FUTURES | PROJ PTS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN WEST ODDS | WIN WEST SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 97.2 | 39.9% | 87.0% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 19.8% |
| Nashville Predators | 93.4 | 6.2% | 69.7% | 9/1 (10%) | 13.8% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 101.6 | 33.6% | 95.2% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 12.8% |
| St. Louis Blues | 103.9 | 51.0% | 97.6% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 12.3% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 92.7 | 16.5% | 67.9% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 10.0% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 93.6 | 19.8% | 71.5% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 6.9% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 94.1 | 6.5% | 73.4% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 6.6% |
| Calgary Flames | 89.1 | 6.6% | 46.6% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 5.5% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 87.5 | 1.1% | 36.5% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 3.9% |
| Arizona Coyotes | 91.5 | 12.4% | 61.3% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 3.7% |
| Dallas Stars | 89.3 | 1.6% | 45.7% | 7/1 (12.5%) | 2.6% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 87.5 | 4.7% | 37.1% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 1.9% |
| Minnesota Wild | 79.8 | 0.0% | 7.0% | 50/1 (2%) | 0.1% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 77.1 | 0.1% | 3.2% | 20/1 (4.8%) | -- |
| Los Angeles Kings | 72.5 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 100/1 (1%) | -- |
There may be 16 playoff teams but there are only 12 true Stanley Cup contenders (at least a 2% chance). At #2, the Bruins have a 14 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, which is 20 percentage points behind the Lightning. At the bottom of the contenders list, there is just 0 percent separating the Penguins from the Golden Knights.
| CHAMP CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 7/1 | 12.5% | 33.7% | -- |
| Boston Bruins | 8/1 | 11.1% | 13.6% | UP |
| Washington Capitals | 12/1 | 7.7% | 13.4% | DOWN |
| San Jose Sharks | 20/1 | 4.8% | 6.9% | UP |
| Nashville Predators | 18/1 | 5.3% | 4.5% | DOWN |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 20/1 | 4.8% | 4.3% | DOWN |
| St. Louis Blues | 14/1 | 6.7% | 3.3% | DOWN |
| Colorado Avalanche | 14/1 | 6.7% | 3.2% | DOWN |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 16/1 | 5.9% | 2.8% | DOWN |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 20/1 | 4.8% | 2.3% | DOWN |
| Florida Panthers | 25/1 | 3.8% | 2.3% | DOWN |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 14/1 | 6.7% | 2.3% | DOWN |
| Winnipeg Jets | 25/1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | DOWN |
| Edmonton Oilers | 20/1 | 4.8% | 1.4% | DOWN |
| Calgary Flames | 30/1 | 3.2% | 1.2% | DOWN |