NHL Futures: Capitals Sitting at #3

There is a large 7.8% gap between the Lightning and the Bruins. The Boston Bruins at 22.3% trails the Tampa Bay Lightning at 30.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Bruins chances are down from 90.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 2.92 points separate the 3 teams projected for the #7, #8 and #9 best West record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN EAST ODDSWIN EAST SIM
Tampa Bay Lightning108.12.7%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)30.1%
Boston Bruins116.997.3%100.0%11/4 (26.7%)22.3%
Washington Capitals107.564.8%99.9%5/1 (16.7%)17.4%
Philadelphia Flyers104.829.2%99.8%5/1 (16.7%)12.2%
Pittsburgh Penguins101.05.3%93.9%8/1 (11.1%)4.0%
New York Rangers93.70.0%33.5%30/1 (3.2%)3.9%
Carolina Hurricanes97.50.5%76.6%30/1 (3.2%)3.2%
Toronto Maple Leafs95.30.0%65.2%10/1 (9.1%)3.1%
Florida Panthers94.60.0%53.4%40/1 (2.4%)2.9%
New York Islanders95.70.1%55.6%20/1 (4.8%)0.5%
Columbus Blue Jackets92.70.0%22.1%40/1 (2.4%)0.2%
Montreal Canadiens83.00.0%0.0%500/1 (0.2%)--
Buffalo Sabres80.60.0%0.0%----
New Jersey Devils78.90.0%0.0%----
Ottawa Senators70.20.0%0.0%----
Detroit Red Wings44.00.0%0.0%----

There is a small 0.9% gap between West leaders. The Colorado Avalanche lead with a 21.5 percent chance of winning the West and the St. Louis Blues are at 20.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Blues chances are down from 64.2 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Wild average the #7 most wins and the Jets average the #9 most so the difference (0.07 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the West.

WEST FUTURES PROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN WEST ODDSWIN WEST SIM
Colorado Avalanche106.836.2%100.0%4/1 (20%)21.5%
St. Louis Blues107.963.7%100.0%4/1 (20%)20.6%
Edmonton Oilers96.216.5%94.1%10/1 (9.1%)13.6%
Vegas Golden Knights99.573.0%99.4%11/4 (26.7%)13.4%
Vancouver Canucks93.98.4%81.2%15/1 (6.2%)12.9%
Nashville Predators92.30.0%61.3%12/1 (7.7%)5.0%
Minnesota Wild91.60.0%51.9%30/1 (3.2%)4.7%
Calgary Flames91.82.1%58.7%15/1 (6.2%)3.8%
Winnipeg Jets91.50.0%51.8%25/1 (3.8%)2.1%
Dallas Stars96.30.1%91.7%8/1 (11.1%)2.0%
Arizona Coyotes86.90.0%8.9%25/1 (3.8%)0.3%
Chicago Blackhawks84.20.0%1.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Anaheim Ducks77.10.0%0.0%----
Los Angeles Kings75.00.0%0.0%----
San Jose Sharks73.90.0%0.0%----

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup, but only 11 really do with at least a two percent chance. At the top, the Lightning have a 7 percentage point lead over the Bruins. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 2.2 percentage points.

CHAMP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Tampa Bay Lightning7/112.5%22.6%--
Boston Bruins6/114.3%15.6%DOWN
Washington Capitals10/19.1%11.1%DOWN
Colorado Avalanche10/19.1%8.5%--
St. Louis Blues10/19.1%8.4%--
Philadelphia Flyers10/19.1%6.8%--
Edmonton Oilers20/14.8%4.4%--
Vegas Golden Knights6/114.3%4.3%DOWN
Vancouver Canucks30/13.2%4.2%DOWN
New York Rangers60/11.6%2.3%DOWN
Pittsburgh Penguins16/15.9%2.0%DOWN
Florida Panthers80/11.2%1.7%DOWN
Nashville Predators25/13.8%1.5%DOWN
Carolina Hurricanes60/11.6%1.5%DOWN
Toronto Maple Leafs20/14.8%1.5%DOWN
Minnesota Wild60/11.6%1.4%DOWN