There is a large 7.8% gap between the Lightning and the Bruins. The Boston Bruins at 22.3% trails the Tampa Bay Lightning at 30.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Bruins chances are down from 90.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 2.92 points separate the 3 teams projected for the #7, #8 and #9 best West record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.
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| EAST FUTURES | PROJ PTS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN EAST ODDS | WIN EAST SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 108.1 | 2.7% | 100.0% | 7/2 (22.2%) | 30.1% |
| Boston Bruins | 116.9 | 97.3% | 100.0% | 11/4 (26.7%) | 22.3% |
| Washington Capitals | 107.5 | 64.8% | 99.9% | 5/1 (16.7%) | 17.4% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 104.8 | 29.2% | 99.8% | 5/1 (16.7%) | 12.2% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 101.0 | 5.3% | 93.9% | 8/1 (11.1%) | 4.0% |
| New York Rangers | 93.7 | 0.0% | 33.5% | 30/1 (3.2%) | 3.9% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 97.5 | 0.5% | 76.6% | 30/1 (3.2%) | 3.2% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 95.3 | 0.0% | 65.2% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 3.1% |
| Florida Panthers | 94.6 | 0.0% | 53.4% | 40/1 (2.4%) | 2.9% |
| New York Islanders | 95.7 | 0.1% | 55.6% | 20/1 (4.8%) | 0.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 92.7 | 0.0% | 22.1% | 40/1 (2.4%) | 0.2% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 83.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 500/1 (0.2%) | -- |
| Buffalo Sabres | 80.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
| New Jersey Devils | 78.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
| Ottawa Senators | 70.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
| Detroit Red Wings | 44.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
There is a small 0.9% gap between West leaders. The Colorado Avalanche lead with a 21.5 percent chance of winning the West and the St. Louis Blues are at 20.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Blues chances are down from 64.2 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Wild average the #7 most wins and the Jets average the #9 most so the difference (0.07 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the West.
| WEST FUTURES | PROJ PTS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | WIN WEST ODDS | WIN WEST SIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 106.8 | 36.2% | 100.0% | 4/1 (20%) | 21.5% |
| St. Louis Blues | 107.9 | 63.7% | 100.0% | 4/1 (20%) | 20.6% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 96.2 | 16.5% | 94.1% | 10/1 (9.1%) | 13.6% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 99.5 | 73.0% | 99.4% | 11/4 (26.7%) | 13.4% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 93.9 | 8.4% | 81.2% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 12.9% |
| Nashville Predators | 92.3 | 0.0% | 61.3% | 12/1 (7.7%) | 5.0% |
| Minnesota Wild | 91.6 | 0.0% | 51.9% | 30/1 (3.2%) | 4.7% |
| Calgary Flames | 91.8 | 2.1% | 58.7% | 15/1 (6.2%) | 3.8% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 91.5 | 0.0% | 51.8% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 2.1% |
| Dallas Stars | 96.3 | 0.1% | 91.7% | 8/1 (11.1%) | 2.0% |
| Arizona Coyotes | 86.9 | 0.0% | 8.9% | 25/1 (3.8%) | 0.3% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 84.2 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 150/1 (0.7%) | -- |
| Anaheim Ducks | 77.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
| Los Angeles Kings | 75.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
| San Jose Sharks | 73.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- |
All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup, but only 11 really do with at least a two percent chance. At the top, the Lightning have a 7 percentage point lead over the Bruins. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 2.2 percentage points.
| CHAMP CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 7/1 | 12.5% | 22.6% | -- |
| Boston Bruins | 6/1 | 14.3% | 15.6% | DOWN |
| Washington Capitals | 10/1 | 9.1% | 11.1% | DOWN |
| Colorado Avalanche | 10/1 | 9.1% | 8.5% | -- |
| St. Louis Blues | 10/1 | 9.1% | 8.4% | -- |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 10/1 | 9.1% | 6.8% | -- |
| Edmonton Oilers | 20/1 | 4.8% | 4.4% | -- |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6/1 | 14.3% | 4.3% | DOWN |
| Vancouver Canucks | 30/1 | 3.2% | 4.2% | DOWN |
| New York Rangers | 60/1 | 1.6% | 2.3% | DOWN |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 16/1 | 5.9% | 2.0% | DOWN |
| Florida Panthers | 80/1 | 1.2% | 1.7% | DOWN |
| Nashville Predators | 25/1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | DOWN |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 60/1 | 1.6% | 1.5% | DOWN |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 20/1 | 4.8% | 1.5% | DOWN |
| Minnesota Wild | 60/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% | DOWN |