NHL Futures: San Jose Sharks at the Top of the West

The percentage difference at the top of the East is very large at 11.9%. The Toronto Maple Leafs at 27% trails the Tampa Bay Lightning at 39%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Lightning chances are down from 51.2 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected points between the teams with the #8 best record and the team with the #9 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN EAST ODDSWIN EAST SIM
Tampa Bay Lightning121.798.2%100.0%2/1 (33.3%)39.0%
Toronto Maple Leafs107.51.7%99.9%5/1 (16.7%)27.0%
Washington Capitals100.631.3%96.9%6/1 (14.3%)11.4%
Pittsburgh Penguins98.617.0%92.6%5/1 (16.7%)10.3%
Columbus Blue Jackets97.815.5%90.3%10/1 (9.1%)5.5%
Boston Bruins99.70.1%95.5%6/1 (14.3%)3.9%
New York Islanders101.135.7%96.8%15/1 (6.2%)2.4%
Florida Panthers86.50.0%13.3%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Montreal Canadiens93.50.0%65.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
Philadelphia Flyers84.60.0%7.2%100/1 (1%)--
Carolina Hurricanes88.10.2%21.6%25/1 (3.8%)--
Buffalo Sabres87.50.0%18.6%30/1 (3.2%)--
New York Rangers80.00.0%1.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
New Jersey Devils77.70.0%0.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Ottawa Senators74.20.0%0.0%250/1 (0.4%)--
Detroit Red Wings73.10.0%0.0%250/1 (0.4%)--

There is a small 0.7% gap between West leaders. The San Jose Sharks lead with a 33.6 percent chance of winning the West and the Winnipeg Jets are at 32.9%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Jets chances are down from 39 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Wild average the #7 most wins and the Canucks average the #9 most so the difference (1.45 points) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

WEST FUTURES PROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN WEST ODDSWIN WEST SIM
San Jose Sharks107.744.4%92.3%5/1 (16.7%)33.6%
Winnipeg Jets107.184.9%97.9%3/1 (25%)32.9%
Calgary Flames108.754.9%93.8%7/2 (22.2%)16.4%
Nashville Predators100.114.7%88.1%9/2 (18.2%)9.4%
Las Vegas Golden Knights95.70.7%83.6%5/1 (16.7%)4.6%
St. Louis Blues90.20.2%73.4%50/1 (2%)1.1%
Minnesota Wild86.80.1%58.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.8%
Colorado Avalanche85.50.0%48.3%20/1 (4.8%)0.6%
Vancouver Canucks85.40.0%48.1%40/1 (2.4%)0.3%
Dallas Stars88.50.1%66.8%15/1 (6.2%)0.3%
Edmonton Oilers80.30.0%15.9%50/1 (2%)--
Chicago Blackhawks81.90.0%23.8%250/1 (0.4%)--
Arizona Coyotes77.20.0%5.4%40/1 (2.4%)--
Anaheim Ducks72.80.0%0.6%40/1 (2.4%)--
Los Angeles Kings76.20.0%3.4%150/1 (0.7%)--

Below are the latest NHL Futures for winning the Stanley Cup. At the top, the Lightning have a 9 percentage point lead over the Jets. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 3.2 percentage points.

CHAMP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Tampa Bay Lightning4/120.0%25.7%DOWN
Winnipeg Jets7/112.5%16.7%DOWN
San Jose Sharks10/19.1%15.9%UP
Toronto Maple Leafs10/19.1%15.3%UP
Calgary Flames8/111.1%6.4%DOWN
Washington Capitals10/19.1%5.8%DOWN
Pittsburgh Penguins10/19.1%5.3%DOWN
Nashville Predators9/110.0%2.7%DOWN
Columbus Blue Jackets20/14.8%2.1%UP
Boston Bruins12/17.7%1.4%--
Las Vegas Golden Knights10/19.1%1.4%DOWN