NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Vancouver Canucks vs Boston Bruins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bruins to win the game. The projected score is BOS 3.6 and VAN 2.3, and Boston is winning 74% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bruins is -270 which translates to 73 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Bruins since the moneyline is moving that way. Head-to-head, the Bruins are 3-2 but the Bruins get the significant edge in profit at +-49 to 5 units. In these games the Bruins averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Canucks 3.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vancouver Canucks+2282.32.329%26%3.4 (2 Wins)
Boston Bruins-2703.23.671%74%3.6 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers

The Panthers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is FLA 3 and EDM 2.6, with Florida winning 58% of the time. At -150 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Panthers a 60 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Panthers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Oilers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +216 to -185 units. In these games, the Oilers averaged 4.2 and the Panthers 3.8 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Edmonton Oilers+1252.82.643%42%4.2 (3 Wins)
Florida Panthers-1503.23.057%58%3.8 (1 Win)

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Arizona Coyotes vs Philadelphia Flyers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Flyers to win the game. The projected score is PHI 3.2 and ARI 2.5, and Philadelphia is winning 63% of the sims. The Flyers are -135 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 5 matchups the Coyotes are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +207 to -118. The average moneyline for the Flyers was -102 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Flyers averaged 3.8 goals per game and the Coyotes 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Coyotes+1152.92.545%37%3.6 (3 Wins)
Philadelphia Flyers-1353.13.255%63%3.8 (2 Wins)

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Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens

The odds and our simulations favor the Canadiens over the Sabres, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is MON 3 and BUF 2.6, and Montreal is winning 57% of the sims. At -135 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canadiens a 57 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Canadiens have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +113 to -234 units. The average moneyline for the Sabres was +83 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Canadiens averaged 2.9 goals per game and the Sabres 1.7.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Sabres+1152.62.645%43%1.7 (3 Wins)
Montreal Canadiens-1352.93.055%57%2.9 (6 Wins)

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Las Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Golden Knights. The projected score is Golden Knights 3 and Senators 2.9, and Las Vegas is winning 50% of simulations. The Golden Knights are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 3 matchups the Golden Knights are 2-1, but neither team is down overall. The Golden Knights are +112 and the Senators are +15 against each other. The Golden Knights were -114 favorites on average. In these games, the Golden Knights averaged 4.3 and the Senators 4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Las Vegas Golden Knights-1613.03.060%50%4.3 (2 Wins)
Ottawa Senators+1402.52.940%50%4.0 (1 Win)

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New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is TB 3.8 and NYI 2.9, with Tampa Bay winning 65% of the time. The Lightning are -222 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 69 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Lightning going 5-1. They have the large edge in units at +224 to -345 units. In these games the Lightning averaged 5 goals per game and the Islanders 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Islanders+1802.62.934%35%2.5 (1 Win)
Tampa Bay Lightning-2223.43.866%65%5.0 (5 Wins)

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Carolina Hurricanes vs Chicago Blackhawks

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Blackhawks as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is CHI 3.2 and CAR 2.5, and Chicago is winning 63% of the sims. At -116 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Hurricanes a 54 percent chance of winning. People are betting more heavily on the Hurricanes based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but both teams are down overall playing each other (Hurricanes -29 units, Blackhawks -3 units). Both teams have averaged 2.5 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Hurricanes-1163.02.551%37%2.5 (2 Wins)
Chicago Blackhawks-1053.03.249%63%2.5 (2 Wins)

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San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Sharks. The projected score is Sharks 3 and Stars 2.9, and San Jose is winning 51% of simulations. The Sharks are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Sharks since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Stars have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +315 to -263 units. The Sharks were -120 favorites on average. In these games the Stars averaged 3.3 goals per game and the Sharks 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Jose Sharks-1252.83.053%51%2.2 (2 Wins)
Dallas Stars+1052.72.947%49%3.3 (4 Wins)

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Minnesota Wild vs Los Angeles Kings

The simulations slightly favor the Wild who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Wild 2.9 and Kings 2.8, with Minnesota winning 53% of the latest sims. At -115 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Kings a 53 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 7 matchups the Kings are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +34 to -184 units. The average moneyline for the Kings was +8 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Wild averaged 3.9 and the Kings 3.7 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Wild-1052.72.949%53%3.9 (3 Wins)
Los Angeles Kings-1152.82.851%47%3.7 (4 Wins)

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