NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Dec 2

Monday, December 02, 2019

New Jersey Devils vs Buffalo Sabres

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Sabres to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is BUF 2.8 and NJ 2.5, and Buffalo is winning 58% of simulations. At -130 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sabres a 57 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 7 matchups the Devils are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +102 to -71. The average moneyline for the Sabres was -78 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Devils averaged 3.1 and the Sabres 3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1132.92.545%42%3.1 (4 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1303.12.855%58%3.0 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Vegas Golden Knights vs New York Rangers

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Rangers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is NYR 3.2 and LV 2.8, and New York is winning 58% of simulations. The Golden Knights are -139 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Golden Knights have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +49 to -257. The Golden Knights were -113 favorites on average. In these games, the Golden Knights averaged 3.5 and the Rangers 3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vegas Golden Knights-1393.12.856%42%3.5 (3 Wins)
New York Rangers+1222.93.244%58%3.0 (1 Win)

New York Islanders vs Detroit Red Wings

The Islanders are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Islanders 3.1 and Red Wings 2.3, and New York is winning 65% of simulations. At -209 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Islanders a 68 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Islanders have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. They have the large edge in units at +114 to -45. The Red Wings were +103 underdogs on average. Both teams have averaged 3.7 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Islanders-2093.13.165%65%3.7 (4 Wins)
Detroit Red Wings+1792.42.335%35%3.7 (2 Wins)

St. Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Blues. The projected score is Blues 2.9 and Blackhawks 2.8, and St. Louis is winning 50% of simulations. The Blues are -126 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 9 matchups the Blackhawks are 5-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +285 to -192 units. The Blues were -125 favorites on average. In these games, the Blues averaged 3.8 and the Blackhawks 3.1 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St. Louis Blues-1262.82.954%50%3.8 (4 Wins)
Chicago Blackhawks+1092.73.046%50%3.1 (5 Wins)

Los Angeles Kings vs Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is ANA 2.8 and LA 2.5, with Anaheim winning 55% of the time. At -145 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Ducks a 59 percent chance of winning. In their last 9 matchups the Kings are 5-4 and they have the large edge in profit at +72 to -217 units. The average moneyline for the Ducks was -35 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. Both teams have averaged 2.6 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+1272.62.543%45%2.6 (5 Wins)
Anaheim Ducks-1452.92.857%55%2.6 (4 Wins)