NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Dec 21

Saturday, December 21, 2019

Los Angeles Kings vs Buffalo Sabres

The odds and our simulations favor the Sabres over the Kings. The projected score is BUF 3.2 and LA 2.5, and Buffalo is winning 63% of the sims. The Sabres are -164 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Sabres are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +121 to -177 units. The average moneyline for the Kings was -97 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Sabres averaged 3.2 goals per game and the Kings 2.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+1402.52.540%37%2.4 (2 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1643.03.260%63%3.2 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Anaheim Ducks vs New York Islanders

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Islanders over the Ducks. The projected score is NYI 3.1 and ANA 2.1, and New York is winning 70% of the sims. At -179 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Islanders a 64 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Ducks going 4-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +283 to -355 units. The average moneyline for the Islanders was -54 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Ducks averaged 3 and the Islanders 2 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Anaheim Ducks+1572.22.138%30%3.0 (4 Wins)
New York Islanders-1792.83.162%70%2.0 (1 Win)

Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Jets as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Jets 2.9 and Wild 2.5, and Winnipeg is winning 58% of simulations. The Wild are -132 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 15 matchups the Jets are 8-7. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Jets are at -94 and the Wild are -103 against each other. The average moneyline for the Wild was +17 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Jets averaged 2.9 and the Wild 2.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Winnipeg Jets+1132.62.945%58%2.9 (8 Wins)
Minnesota Wild-1322.92.555%42%2.6 (7 Wins)

Nashville Predators vs Boston Bruins

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Bruins. The projected score is BOS 3.3 and NSH 3.1, and Boston is winning 53% of simulations. At -165 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Bruins a 62 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Predators are at -48 and the Bruins are -43 against each other. The average moneyline for the Predators was -63 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Bruins averaged 3 goals per game and the Predators 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Nashville Predators+1452.83.140%47%2.8 (2 Wins)
Boston Bruins-1653.23.360%53%3.0 (2 Wins)

Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is CAR 3.7 and FLA 3, and Carolina is winning 63% of the sims. The moneyline for the Hurricanes is -165 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Hurricanes going 7-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +450 to -635 units. The average moneyline for the Panthers was +29 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Hurricanes averaged 3.8 goals per game and the Panthers 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Florida Panthers+1402.53.040%37%2.2 (1 Win)
Carolina Hurricanes-1653.03.760%63%3.8 (7 Wins)

New Jersey Devils vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Blue Jackets to win the game. The projected score is CLB 2.9 and NJ 2.2, and Columbus is winning 65% of simulations. At -164 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Blue Jackets a 62 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Blue Jackets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. They have the large edge in units at +359 to -530 units. In these games the Blue Jackets averaged 3.1 goals per game and the Devils 1.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+1402.52.240%35%1.5 (1 Win)
Columbus Blue Jackets-1643.02.960%65%3.1 (7 Wins)

Montreal Canadiens vs Edmonton Oilers

The odds favor the Canadiens, but the sims are solidly on the Canadiens. The projected score is Canadiens 3.1 and Oilers 2.8, and Montreal is winning 54% of simulations. At -122 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canadiens a 55 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Oilers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +155 to -240 units. The average moneyline for the Oilers was -13 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Oilers averaged 4.8 goals per game and the Canadiens 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Montreal Canadiens-1223.13.153%54%2.2 (1 Win)
Edmonton Oilers+1042.92.847%46%4.8 (3 Wins)

Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators

The Flyers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Flyers 2.9 and Senators 2.4, and Philadelphia is winning 58% of simulations. The Flyers are -133 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Flyers are 3-2 but the Flyers get the significant edge in profit at +-43 to 16 units. The Flyers were -198 favorites on average. In these games, the Flyers averaged 3.6 and the Senators 3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Flyers-1333.12.955%58%3.6 (3 Wins)
Ottawa Senators+1142.92.445%42%3.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Maple Leafs over the Red Wings. The projected score is TOR 3.8 and DET 2.3, with Toronto winning 75% of the time. The Maple Leafs are -274 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Maple Leafs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-3 record and they have the large edge in profit at +53 to -183 units. In these games the Maple Leafs averaged 4.1 goals per game and the Red Wings 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+2282.82.329%25%2.8 (3 Wins)
Toronto Maple Leafs-2743.73.871%75%4.1 (7 Wins)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Capitals are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is WAS 3.4 and TB 3.2, and Washington is winning 53% of simulations. The moneylines for the game are Capitals -107 and Lightning -111. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 15 matchups the Capitals are 8-7. They have the large edge in units at +318 to -223 units. The average moneyline for the Lightning was -85 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Capitals averaged 3.5 goals per game and the Lightning 2.9.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Lightning-1113.23.250%47%2.9 (7 Wins)
Washington Capitals-1073.23.450%53%3.5 (8 Wins)

Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is COL 3.6 and CHI 2.5, and Colorado is winning 69% of simulations. The moneyline for the Avalanche is -228 which translates to 70 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Avalanche are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. They have the large edge in units at +85 to -17 units. The average moneyline for the Blackhawks was +81 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Avalanche averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Blackhawks 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Blackhawks+1922.62.533%31%2.2 (3 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche-2283.43.667%69%3.6 (5 Wins)

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vancouver Canucks

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Penguins as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Penguins 3.3 and Canucks 2.7, and Pittsburgh is winning 62% of simulations. At -118 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canucks a 54 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Canucks are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +285 to -188 units. The Penguins were -187 favorites on average. In these games, the Penguins averaged 3.8 and the Canucks 3.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins+1012.93.348%62%3.8 (2 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks-1183.12.752%38%3.6 (3 Wins)

St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Sharks are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is SJ 3.1 and STL 3, and San Jose is winning 51% of simulations. The moneyline for the Blues is -131 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 6 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Blues are at -70 and the Sharks are -64 against each other. The average moneyline for the Sharks was -28 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Blues averaged 2.8 and the Sharks 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St. Louis Blues-1313.13.055%49%2.8 (6 Wins)
San Jose Sharks+1132.93.145%51%2.4 (6 Wins)