NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Feb 13

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Buffalo Sabres

The current simulations slightly favor the Blue Jackets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Blue Jackets 2.7 and Sabres 2.6, and Columbus is winning 51% of simulations. The moneylines for the game are Sabres -110 and Blue Jackets -109. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. These lines, if you adjust for the juice, translates to 50% to 50%. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the Blue Jackets are 3-2 but both teams are down overall playing each other (Blue Jackets -14 units, Sabres -53 units). The average moneyline for the Sabres was +61 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Blue Jackets averaged 3.6 and the Sabres 2.8 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Columbus Blue Jackets-1092.82.750%51%3.6 (3 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres-1102.82.650%49%2.8 (2 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Philadelphia Flyers vs Florida Panthers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Panthers to win the game. The projected score is FLA 3.6 and PHI 2.9, and Florida is winning 62% of the sims. At -130 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Panthers a 57 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Panthers are 3-2. They have the large edge in units at +46 to -146 units. In these games the Panthers averaged 3 goals per game and the Flyers 2.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia Flyers+1123.12.945%38%2.8 (2 Wins)
Florida Panthers-1303.43.655%62%3.0 (3 Wins)

Detroit Red Wings vs New Jersey Devils

The Devils are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is NJ 2.7 and DET 2.1, and New Jersey is winning 62% of the sims. The Devils are -182 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 7 matchups the Red Wings are 4-3 and they have the large edge in profit at +200 to -165 units. The average moneyline for the Red Wings was +65 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Red Wings averaged 2.7 and the Devils 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+1592.52.137%38%2.7 (4 Wins)
New Jersey Devils-1823.02.763%62%2.4 (3 Wins)

Edmonton Oilers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Lightning to win the game. The projected score is TB 4 and EDM 3, and Tampa Bay is winning 68% of the sims. At -203 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Lightning a 67 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Lightning have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +57 to -175 units. In these games the Lightning averaged 4 goals per game and the Oilers 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Edmonton Oilers+1702.43.036%32%3.0 (1 Win)
Tampa Bay Lightning-2033.14.064%68%4.0 (3 Wins)

Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The odds and our simulations favor the Maple Leafs over the Stars. The projected score is TOR 3.3 and DAL 2.6, with Toronto winning 63% of the time. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -136 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Maple Leafs going 4-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +328 to -269 units. In these games the Maple Leafs averaged 4.6 goals per game and the Stars 3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Stars+1182.92.644%37%3.0 (1 Win)
Toronto Maple Leafs-1363.13.356%63%4.6 (4 Wins)

Arizona Coyotes vs Ottawa Senators

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Coyotes. The projected score is Coyotes 2.7 and Senators 2.5, and Arizona is winning 53% of simulations. At -137 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Coyotes a 58 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Coyotes have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record and they have the large edge in profit at +411 to -500 units. The average moneyline for the Senators was +33 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Coyotes averaged 3.6 and the Senators 1.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Arizona Coyotes-1373.12.756%53%3.6 (5 Wins)
Ottawa Senators+1192.92.544%47%1.6 (0 Wins)

New York Rangers vs Minnesota Wild

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Rangers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Rangers 2.9 and Wild 2.6, and New York is winning 55% of simulations. At -136 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Wild a 58 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Wild have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +152 to -294 units. In these games the Wild averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Rangers 1.8.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Rangers+1182.92.944%55%1.8 (1 Win)
Minnesota Wild-1363.12.656%45%3.6 (4 Wins)

New York Islanders vs Nashville Predators

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Predators. The projected score is NSH 2.9 and NYI 2.8, and Nashville is winning 51% of the sims. The moneyline for the Predators is -139 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Predators going 4-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +206 to -290 units. The average moneyline for the Predators was -105 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Predators averaged 4.8 goals per game and the Islanders 3.6.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Islanders+1212.92.844%49%3.6 (1 Win)
Nashville Predators-1393.12.956%51%4.8 (4 Wins)

Washington Capitals vs Colorado Avalanche

The simulations slightly favor the Capitals who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Capitals 3.6 and Avalanche 3.2, and Washington is winning 56% of simulations. The Avalanche are -134 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Capitals are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +61 to -61 units. The average moneyline for the Capitals was -95 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Avalanche averaged 3.8 goals per game and the Capitals 3.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Capitals+1163.13.645%56%3.4 (3 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche-1343.43.255%44%3.8 (2 Wins)

Calgary Flames vs Anaheim Ducks

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Ducks as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is ANA 2.7 and CGY 2.5, and Anaheim is winning 54% of the sims. The Flames are -116 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 54 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Flames are 5-4. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Flames are at -20 and the Ducks are -89 against each other. The average moneyline for the Ducks was +32 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Flames averaged 2.1 and the Ducks 1.9 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Calgary Flames-1162.82.552%46%2.1 (5 Wins)
Anaheim Ducks-1022.72.748%54%1.9 (4 Wins)

St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Golden Knights. The projected score is LV 3.3 and STL 3.1, with Vegas winning 54% of the time. At -151 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Golden Knights a 60 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Blues have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +277 to -328 units. The average moneyline for the Golden Knights was -36 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Blues averaged 4 and the Golden Knights 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
St. Louis Blues+1322.83.142%46%4.0 (4 Wins)
Vegas Golden Knights-1513.23.358%54%2.4 (1 Win)