NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Jan 14

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Golden Knights. The projected score is Golden Knights 3.1 and Sabres 2.9, with Vegas being given a 53% chance of winning. The Golden Knights are -162 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Golden Knights based on how the moneyline is moving. The Golden Knights have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +88 to -175 units. The average moneyline for the Sabres was +94 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Golden Knights averaged 3.2 and the Sabres 2.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vegas Golden Knights-1623.23.160%53%3.2 (3 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres+1422.82.940%47%2.5 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Bruins over the Blue Jackets despite being on the road. The projected score is Bruins 3.4 and Blue Jackets 2.4, with Boston winning 66% of the latest sims. At -144 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Bruins a 59 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Bruins are 7-6 and they have the slight edge in profit at +10 to -9 units. The average moneyline for the Bruins was -52 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Bruins averaged 3.4 and the Blue Jackets 2.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Bruins-1442.93.457%66%3.4 (7 Wins)
Columbus Blue Jackets+1262.62.443%34%2.6 (6 Wins)

Detroit Red Wings vs New York Islanders

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Islanders over the Red Wings. The projected score is NYI 3.2 and DET 2, with New York winning 74% of the time. The moneyline for the Islanders is -270 which translates to 73 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Islanders have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +161 to -145 units. In these games the Islanders averaged 3.7 goals per game and the Red Wings 3.3.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings+2202.32.030%26%3.3 (2 Wins)
New York Islanders-2703.23.270%74%3.7 (5 Wins)

Minnesota Wild vs Pittsburgh Penguins

The odds and our simulations favor the Penguins over the Wild. The projected score is PIT 3.1 and MIN 2.4, and Pittsburgh is winning 63% of simulations. The Penguins are -182 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Penguins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record and they have the large edge in profit at +255 to -309 units. The average moneyline for the Penguins was -74 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games the Penguins averaged 3.8 goals per game and the Wild 2.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Wild+1602.52.437%37%2.4 (1 Win)
Pittsburgh Penguins-1823.03.163%63%3.8 (4 Wins)

Los Angeles Kings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Lightning over the Kings. The projected score is TB 4.3 and LA 2.2, with Tampa Bay winning 83% of the time. At -288 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Lightning a 74 percent chance of winning. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Lightning have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +236 to -400 units. In these games the Lightning averaged 4.8 goals per game and the Kings 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings+2392.52.228%17%2.5 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Lightning-2883.54.372%83%4.8 (4 Wins)

New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Maple Leafs over the Devils. The projected score is TOR 3.9 and NJ 2.4, and Toronto is winning 76% of the sims. The moneyline for the Maple Leafs is -255 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Maple Leafs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +112 to -247 units. In these games the Maple Leafs averaged 3.9 goals per game and the Devils 2.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Jersey Devils+2152.82.431%24%2.4 (2 Wins)
Toronto Maple Leafs-2553.73.969%76%3.9 (5 Wins)

Chicago Blackhawks vs Ottawa Senators

The simulations slightly favor the Blackhawks who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Blackhawks 3.2 and Senators 2.6, with Chicago winning 61% of the latest sims. At -118 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Senators a 54 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Blackhawks going 4-0. They have the large edge in units at +292 to -400. The Blackhawks were -141 favorites on average. In these games, the Blackhawks averaged 5.8 and the Senators 3.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Blackhawks+1003.23.248%61%5.8 (4 Wins)
Ottawa Senators-1183.32.652%39%3.5 (0 Wins)

Vancouver Canucks vs Winnipeg Jets

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Jets. The projected score is WPG 3 and VAN 2.8, and Winnipeg is winning 53% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jets is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Jets going 7-0 and they have the large edge in profit at +433 to -700 units. In these games the Jets averaged 3.6 goals per game and the Canucks 1.1.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Vancouver Canucks+1123.12.845%47%1.1 (0 Wins)
Winnipeg Jets-1303.43.055%53%3.6 (7 Wins)

San Jose Sharks vs Arizona Coyotes

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Coyotes to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is ARI 2.9 and SJ 2.6, and Arizona is winning 56% of the sims. The moneyline for the Coyotes is -141 which translates to 59 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons but the Sharks get the large edge in profit at +-73 to 89 units. The Sharks were -118 favorites on average. Both teams have averaged 3.3 goals in these games.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Jose Sharks+1202.62.644%44%3.3 (3 Wins)
Arizona Coyotes-1412.92.956%56%3.3 (3 Wins)

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Avalanche to win the game. The projected score is COL 3.1 and DAL 2.5, and Colorado is winning 61% of simulations. The Avalanche are -141 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 59 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Stars are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +59 to -148. The average moneyline for the Stars was -19 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Stars averaged 2.9 and the Avalanche 2.3 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Stars+1232.62.543%39%2.9 (4 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche-1412.93.157%61%2.3 (3 Wins)

Nashville Predators vs Edmonton Oilers

The odds favor the Predators, but the sims are solidly on the Predators. The projected score is Predators 3.4 and Oilers 2.8, with Nashville winning 62% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Predators is -121 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Predators going 5-1. They have the large edge in units at +238 to -330. The Predators were -136 favorites on average. In these games, the Predators averaged 3.2 and the Oilers 1.7 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Nashville Predators-1213.33.453%62%3.2 (5 Wins)
Edmonton Oilers+1033.22.847%38%1.7 (1 Win)