NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Mar 10

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Nashville Predators vs Montreal Canadiens

The odds favor the Predators, but the sims are solidly on the Predators. The projected score is Predators 3.1 and Canadiens 2.9, with Nashville being given a 55% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Predators is -113 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Predators have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record and they have the large edge in profit at +301 to -400 units. The average moneyline for the Predators was -95 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Predators averaged 3.2 and the Canadiens 1.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Nashville Predators-1132.83.151%55%3.2 (4 Wins)
Montreal Canadiens-1052.72.949%45%1.5 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs New Jersey Devils

The Penguins are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Penguins 3.1 and Devils 2.5, and Pittsburgh is winning 62% of simulations. The Penguins are -182 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Devils have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +368 to -270 units. The Penguins were -164 favorites on average. In these games the Devils averaged 3.5 goals per game and the Penguins 2.5.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins-1823.33.163%62%2.5 (2 Wins)
New Jersey Devils+1592.72.537%38%3.5 (4 Wins)

Boston Bruins vs Philadelphia Flyers

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Bruins. The projected score is Bruins 3.2 and Flyers 3.1, with Boston being given a 51% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Bruins is -112 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Flyers are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. They have the large edge in units at +374 to -297 units. The average moneyline for the Flyers was +84 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games, the Bruins averaged 3 and the Flyers 2.8 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Bruins-1122.83.251%51%3.0 (3 Wins)
Philadelphia Flyers-1052.73.149%49%2.8 (5 Wins)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The odds favor the Lightning, but the sims are solidly on the Lightning. The projected score is Lightning 3.5 and Maple Leafs 3.3, and Tampa Bay is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Lightning is -115 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Lightning have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. They have the large edge in units at +156 to -116. The average moneyline for the Lightning was -96 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Lightning averaged 4.2 and the Maple Leafs 2.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tampa Bay Lightning-1153.33.551%56%4.2 (4 Wins)
Toronto Maple Leafs-1033.23.349%44%2.5 (2 Wins)

Carolina Hurricanes vs Detroit Red Wings

The Hurricanes are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Hurricanes 3.5 and Red Wings 1.8, with Carolina winning 80% of the latest sims. At -256 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Hurricanes a 72 percent chance of winning. Bettors seem to be favoring the Hurricanes since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 5 matchups the Hurricanes are 3-2. The Hurricanes actually have the large edge in profit at +-47 to 115 units. The Hurricanes were -220 favorites on average. In these games, the Hurricanes averaged 3.2 and the Red Wings 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Carolina Hurricanes-2563.23.569%80%3.2 (3 Wins)
Detroit Red Wings+2152.31.831%20%2.4 (2 Wins)

New York Rangers vs Dallas Stars

The simulations slightly favor the Rangers who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Rangers 3.2 and Stars 2.5, with New York being given a 63% chance of winning. The Stars are -167 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 63 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Stars going 4-1. They have the large edge in units at +171 to -305 units. The average moneyline for the Rangers was +48 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Stars averaged 2.2 goals per game and the Rangers 1.4.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Rangers+1472.53.239%63%1.4 (1 Win)
Dallas Stars-1673.02.561%37%2.2 (4 Wins)

Ottawa Senators vs Anaheim Ducks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds strongly favor the Ducks. The projected score is ANA 2.7 and OTT 2.6, and Anaheim is winning 51% of simulations. The Ducks are -136 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the Senators are 3-2 and they have the large edge in profit at +211 to -97 units. The average moneyline for the Ducks was -99 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Senators averaged 2 and the Ducks 1.6 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Ottawa Senators+1182.62.644%49%2.0 (3 Wins)
Anaheim Ducks-1362.92.756%51%1.6 (2 Wins)

New York Islanders vs Vancouver Canucks

The odds favor the Canucks, but the sims are solidly on the Canucks. The projected score is VAN 3.3 and NYI 2.4, with Vancouver winning 66% of the time. At -126 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canucks a 56 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 5 matchups the Islanders are 3-2. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Islanders are at -2 and the Canucks are -99 against each other. The average moneyline for the Islanders was -100 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Islanders averaged 4 and the Canucks 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o5.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Islanders+1082.72.446%34%4.0 (3 Wins)
Vancouver Canucks-1262.83.354%66%2.4 (2 Wins)