NHL Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Nov 20

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Canadiens to win the game. The projected score is MON 3.5 and OTT 2.5, and Montreal is winning 67% of simulations. At -212 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Canadiens a 68 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Canadiens have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. They have the large edge in units at +195 to -395 units. In these games the Canadiens averaged 4 goals per game and the Senators 2.2.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Ottawa Senators+1822.92.534%33%2.2 (2 Wins)
Montreal Canadiens-2123.63.566%67%4.0 (6 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers

The odds and our simulations favor the Capitals over the Rangers despite being on the road. The projected score is Capitals 3.7 and Rangers 2.9, and Washington is winning 63% of simulations. The Capitals are -178 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Capitals going 8-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +336 to -713 units. The Rangers were +132 underdogs on average. In these games, the Capitals averaged 3.8 and the Rangers 2.4 goals.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o6.5VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Capitals-1783.53.762%63%3.8 (8 Wins)
New York Rangers+1573.02.938%37%2.4 (1 Win)