NHL Outlook: Bet on the Boston Bruins to Win the Championship at 12/1, 7.7%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Capitals

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 12/1, 7.7% (#4). They win the championship in 7.9% of simulations which makes them a good betting value. In simulations, they win the East 13.9% of the time and are not a good value at 11/2, 15.4%. The Bruins are averaging 103.2 points per sim which makes them a solid bet to go over 100.5. At -500 the Bruins are a good value to make the playoffs with a 93.1% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 7/2, 22.2%. They win the division in 21.4% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 49-24-9 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their expected win percentage was 57%. They performed solidly on the money line turning a +164 profit (100 units per). They went 40-42 on puck lines (-69 loss). More of their games came in under (44) than went over (35). Their next game vs the Stars should be close. The Bruins are winning 52 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/3 DAL52%1-0-1, -380-2
10/5 ARI59%2-0, +1521-1
10/8 LV48%2-0, +1800-2
10/10 COL53%1-1, -501-1
10/12 NJ67%2-1, -412-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Since 10/2/2018 their average goal differential is +0.69 (includes playoff games) which ranks #3 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #2. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #3 ranked team among home teams.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 106 Games3.17 (#10)9.7% (#11)32.7 (#10)
Road3.02 (#10)9.4% (#12)32.1 (#8)
Home3.31 (#9)10% (#9)33.3 (#10)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.48 (#3)91.7% (#3)29.8 (#7)
Road2.54 (#4)91.9% (#431.2 (#10)
Home2.43 (#4)91.5% (#8)28.4 (#6)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Tuukka Rask who is projected to be the #2 Goalie. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Tuukka Rask832Andrei VasilevskiyConnor Hellebuyck
Brad Marchand982Leon DraisaitlAlex Ovechkin
David Pastrnak994Mikko RantanenMark Stone
Patrice Bergeron977Aleksander BarkovJohn Tavares
David Krejci7532Bo HorvatRyan Johansen
Torey Krug9510Erik KarlssonErik Gustafsson
Jake DeBrusk5843Jonathan DrouinNick Ritchie
Jaroslav Halak5335Curtis McElhinneyPheonix Copley
Charlie Coyle1864Rem PitlickAdam Henrique
Karson Kuhlman175Chris StewartKyle Okposo